alternatehistory.com

A) Yes

B) No

Background: In the summer of 1939 two things were going on at opposite ends of the Soviet Union, the first was a border war between Soviet-Mongolian and Japanese-Manchukuoan forces in the Far East. The Soviets won a resounding tactical victory at Nomonhan/Khalkin-Gol. However, ultimately this was a limited war, taking place along only one disputed fraction of the disputed Mongolian-Manchukuoan border which was settled after a short period with an armistice and simple exchange of prisoners.

During the preliminaries to the battle, German-Polish tensions had been rising and the Soviets signed a nonaggression pact and secret agreement to partition Poland and the Baltics. Once the Germans invaded Poland in September, the Soviets transferred Zhukov, the victorious commander in the Far East, to carry out an occupation of eastern Poland.

If war had not broken out in Europe in September 1939, would Zhukov have been retained in the east? Would the Soviets have followed up their victories on the Nomonhan battlefield with a broader offensive against the Japanese position in Manchuria, Korea or Sakhalin?

Amplifying this, if there had instead of rising tensions and a pre-war situation between Poland and Germany from March-April through August 1939, rather a period of calm and possible renewal of the German-Polish nonaggression pact, would the Soviets have been any more prone to widen or continue their war against the Japanese in the Far East?

The basic poll question is:
If Poland was not invaded in 1939, the USSR would have escalated against Japan?
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