If Poland was not invaded in 1939, the USSR would have escalated against Japan?

If Poland was not invaded in 1939, the USSR would have escalated against Japan?

  • Yes

    Votes: 1 8.3%
  • No

    Votes: 11 91.7%

  • Total voters
    12

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
A) Yes

B) No

Background: In the summer of 1939 two things were going on at opposite ends of the Soviet Union, the first was a border war between Soviet-Mongolian and Japanese-Manchukuoan forces in the Far East. The Soviets won a resounding tactical victory at Nomonhan/Khalkin-Gol. However, ultimately this was a limited war, taking place along only one disputed fraction of the disputed Mongolian-Manchukuoan border which was settled after a short period with an armistice and simple exchange of prisoners.

During the preliminaries to the battle, German-Polish tensions had been rising and the Soviets signed a nonaggression pact and secret agreement to partition Poland and the Baltics. Once the Germans invaded Poland in September, the Soviets transferred Zhukov, the victorious commander in the Far East, to carry out an occupation of eastern Poland.

If war had not broken out in Europe in September 1939, would Zhukov have been retained in the east? Would the Soviets have followed up their victories on the Nomonhan battlefield with a broader offensive against the Japanese position in Manchuria, Korea or Sakhalin?

Amplifying this, if there had instead of rising tensions and a pre-war situation between Poland and Germany from March-April through August 1939, rather a period of calm and possible renewal of the German-Polish nonaggression pact, would the Soviets have been any more prone to widen or continue their war against the Japanese in the Far East?

The basic poll question is:
If Poland was not invaded in 1939, the USSR would have escalated against Japan?
 
Even without war breaking out in Europe, tensions are extremely high. Stalin is going to be very wary about getting bogged down in a Japanese sideshow.

There isn't much that the Soviets want from Japan, so they don't have much of an interest in a war of conquest. Even after August Storm, the direct annexations were fairly minor (Sakhalin and a few other islands). Nothing worth the risk of being tied up when Europe finally goes. They probably will continue providing some support to the KMT and the Communists, but not militarily intervening. And if Japan proposes a similar treaty, they will still leap at the chance.
 
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