If Pedro II's sons survive until adulthood, does the Empire of Brazil survive?

From my understanding, the 1889 coup was the result of Pedro's daughter not being seen as an acceptable heir by neither her Father nor the General Assembly, which emboldened the Republicans to overthrow the monarchy. If Pedro's sons did not die in childhood, live long enough to marry for alliances with European nations, and eventually take the throne from Pedro when he either dies or abdicates, could the coup still be attempted despite the clear path of succession?
 
From my understanding, the 1889 coup was the result of Pedro's daughter not being seen as an acceptable heir by neither her Father nor the General Assembly, which emboldened the Republicans to overthrow the monarchy. If Pedro's sons did not die in childhood, live long enough to marry for alliances with European nations, and eventually take the throne from Pedro when he either dies or abdicates, could the coup still be attempted despite the clear path of succession?
IMHO yes. FWIR Pedro got depressed and WOULD have abdicated if his grandson had been old enough. A son - perhaps with a better military record than the comte d'Eu OTL - will have the backing of the army. So even if Pedro is STILL couped his son might use the army to put it down.
@Gonzaga @nandalf @Antonio the Komnenoi @Viriato
 
A living Prince Afonso (b.1842) would be just entering his twenties come the War of the Triple Alliance so would possibly take his dad's place as the first Fatherland Volunteer - if he's moderately competent this would give him a lot of stock. He'd be approaching 50 by the time he saw the throne, and would probably be well educated by Dom Pedro in statecraft, unlike his sister IOTL. However he and his brother are blank slates, dying very young. A less depressed, fatalistic Emperor would certainly do the monarchy a world of good but if his heir is a Wilhelm II-style ass then it might make things worse (the Empire's staying and that guy is next in line? Think its time for a putsch).

Really, the Brazilian Empire needs a succession of a 'good' monarchs to stay afloat - its a historical unicorn. I think getting a stinker is inevitable and will almost guarantee a republic, by legal means or otherwise.
 
A living Prince Afonso (b.1842) would be just entering his twenties come the War of the Triple Alliance so would possibly take his dad's place as the first Fatherland Volunteer - if he's moderately competent this would give him a lot of stock. He'd be approaching 50 by the time he saw the throne, and would probably be well educated by Dom Pedro in statecraft, unlike his sister IOTL. However he and his brother are blank slates, dying very young. A less depressed, fatalistic Emperor would certainly do the monarchy a world of good but if his heir is a Wilhelm II-style ass then it might make things worse (the Empire's staying and that guy is next in line? Think its time for a putsch).

Really, the Brazilian Empire needs a succession of a 'good' monarchs to stay afloat - its a historical unicorn. I think getting a stinker is inevitable and will almost guarantee a republic, by legal means or otherwise.
Perhaps over time the monarchs will hold more of a ceremonial role, devolving power and control of the state to the General Assembly; this could be sudden, like Post-war Japan, or gradual, like the United Kingdom.
 
Certainly there is a greater chance. However, it's not nearly enough. In order to maintain the monarchy in Brazil you need to avoid the politicization of the army (therefore avoid the Paraguayan War) and you need the monarchy to introduce a batch of reforms that reduce the monarch's powers, introduce federalism and abolish archaic institutions like the lifelong Senate, the powerful Council of State, income-based suffrage and indirect elections. These were all reforms that the monarchy was unable to enact. Also, as has been pointed out, it depends on the personality of said son. Pedro II and Isabel were content in sitting in the background, if the son isn't then there is going to be a big problem.
 
Positivism or 'politization' of the army was pretty much alive and frequantly raised it´s head up untill the end of the 20th century.
 
IMHO yes. FWIR Pedro got depressed and WOULD have abdicated if his grandson had been old enough. A son - perhaps with a better military record than the comte d'Eu OTL - will have the backing of the army. So even if Pedro is STILL couped his son might use the army to put it down.
@Gonzaga @nandalf @Antonio the Komnenoi @Viriato



Isabel and her husband,comte dÉu, wanted to respond to the coup, it was Pedro II who did not want to fight. Quite frankly i wish she rebelled at this time,the old republic was really bad!
 
Isabel and her husband,comte dÉu, wanted to respond to the coup, it was Pedro II who did not want to fight. Quite frankly i wish she rebelled at this time,the old republic was really bad!
She had a good chance of succeeding if she had. The people largely favoured the monarchy at the time if I remember my history correct. If she could whip up the people, then she could have retained power. After all she was seen as the liberator of slaves by even some hardcore republicans.
 
She had a good chance of succeeding if she had. The people largely favoured the monarchy at the time if I remember my history correct. If she could whip up the people, then she could have retained power. After all she was seen as the liberator of slaves by even some hardcore republicans.

Yes she had a very high chance of succeeding ,she was favoured by the ex-slaves, had started to starting to court and favour the nascent urban elites,(titles, getting closer)wich also scared the old latitudinarian one ,she had stated many times that women could reign and also could vote.She was in deed a bossy,progressive(by the standards of time) and very pious lady.
 
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