If Operation Ichi-go never occurs, does the KMT win the Chinese Civil War?

Will the KMT win the Chinese Civil War?

  • No, Communists still win

    Votes: 12 50.0%
  • Yes, Nationalist Victory

    Votes: 12 50.0%

  • Total voters
    24
Here's something I thought about: if Ichi-go never occurs, Imperial Japan is much more well prepared for the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria. If this occurs, then when Japan surrenders, the Soviets do not have all of Manchuria and North Korea as in OTL, the Soviets only have very small pieces of Manchuria. Once the Second Sino-Japanese War officially ends, the Chinese Civil War resumes, but this time the CCP does not have the industrial base that is Manchuria which IOTL was extremely helpful to the Communists in winning the war. Without Communist control of Manchuria, the Nationalists win the Civil War, Nationalist China, Cold War dynamics change, China changes, etc. Does my speculation have some validity?
 

Ian_W

Banned
There is a terrifyingly massive quality difference between the Japanese army of 1945 and the Red Army of 1945.

Bluntly, if the IJA is twice as well prepared, it might take an extra week to conquor all of Manchuria and North Korea.

If the IJA is four times as well prepared, it might take an extra two weeks.
 
In addition to the above, the supposition that the communists need the Soviets is dubious and tends to ignore what the critical factors that actually led to the communist victory in the civil war actually were. To quote myself...

I wonder how much the people who are voting for a nationalist victory actually know about the Chinese Civil War. The key elements of communist victory, that is their positively massive political support among the Chinese populace and the base camps set-up throughout eastern China inside territory occupied by the Japanese, were already in place by February of 1945. So the communists are still favored to win.



It was not. The quantity of IJA weaponry turned over to the Communists paled in comparison to the steady stream of American-made weaponry the Communists were able to either steal or buy from the corrupt nationalist camp (Mao at one point declared that Chiang Kai-Shek was "our supply officer") and much of the more technically complex gear (namely tanks and artillery) was unusable until enough nationalist Chinese troops who actually had the skills to use them defected to the communists.



What led to the KMT's collapse was their corruption, incompetence, and ineffectiveness as a government leading them to become horribly unpopular among the Chinese population. This led to entire armies defecting to the communists side. The Manchurian overextension was useful to the communists, but it was hardly vital. It's liable to happen anyways as well... as it was, the nationalists had to beg the Soviets to stay for several actual months in order to keep order in Manchuria because their own armies simply could not move north fast enough. Despite the Americans going out of their way to airlift some nationalist units north, the nationalists simply could not move fast enough to secure Manchuria before the communists. One constant of the Chinese Civil War was of Communist formations superior mobility over that of their nationalist counterparts: they were trained to move faster and over terrain the nationalists couldn't. A sudden Japanese surrender in February of 1945 is liable to result in a massive vacuum across northeast China (not just Manchuria) which the Communists are in a better position to fill before the nationalists can. Then all the communists have to do is lie low and let the nationalists in so that when the fighting actually starts they can then cut them off and destroy them... assuming they don't just switch sides like many nationalist formations did in such situations.



It should further be noted that even in areas that were officially under nationalist control, there were large communist base camps set-up with significant guerrilla forces embedded within the populace. These forces simply lied in wait until the opportune moment when they could rise-up and seize control of the region. And the communist leadership was very good at timing these uprisings for moments where they would cut-off the maximum number of nationalist troops.
 
There is a terrifyingly massive quality difference between the Japanese army of 1945 and the Red Army of 1945.

Bluntly, if the IJA is twice as well prepared, it might take an extra week to conquor all of Manchuria and North Korea.

If the IJA is four times as well prepared, it might take an extra two weeks.
I’m not going to dispute that, but what I’m saying is that even one week is absolutely crucial, since in this TL Japan will surrender at the same time as in OTL, meaning the Soviets will end up with much less of Manchuria and none of Northern Korea
 
IIRC the Red army had overrun the outer regions of Manchuria when the cease fire came, about 2/3ds of Manchuria. The inner core with a significant part of the industry and urban population was not yet occupied. They carried on and occupied that region in the following days. I suspect in this alternate scenario they would do the same.
 
I’m not going to dispute that, but what I’m saying is that even one week is absolutely crucial, since in this TL Japan will surrender at the same time as in OTL, meaning the Soviets will end up with much less of Manchuria and none of Northern Korea

Rather more pertinently, why do you assume the forces used in Ichi-Go would be available to the Kwangtung Army instead of being retained to hold the front against the Chinese or being sent back to the mainland?

IIRC the Red army had overrun the outer regions of Manchuria when the cease fire came, about 2/3ds of Manchuria. The inner core with a significant part of the industry and urban population was not yet occupied.

Kinda. The Soviet armored spearheads that had crossed the undefended Greater Khingang Mountain Range had reached and taken a number of the cities in the inner core by the time the Japanese surrendered but the main body had yet to catch-up and secure the overall region.
 
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