If not Russia, who could've been the first Communist State?

[GameBawesome]

As we know, Russia was the first constitutionally communist state, forming the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, that would become the Soviet Union with other Soviet Republics. (Sorry Paris Commune, you actually had to win).

However, some had said that without hindsight, Russia was the least likely to ever become a full-fledge Communist state, given the fact that the Russian Empire was heavily agricultural that started late to industrialize.

So, which of these options had the better chance of becoming a Communist nation, with a POD between 1880s to 1920s, whether that be through democratic means or violent Communist revolution?

• France
• Germany
• United Kingdom
• Italy
• Spain
• United States of America
• Mexico
• Other (Explain below)

 

[Issei Uzumaki]

France if the Great War goes differently. I know a bit cliche but even Marx thought the revolution would begin in a highly developed industrial nation due to people being upset over exploitation by owners of businesses and banks. So from his perspective starting in somewhere like Russia was actually a little surprising since it was not nearly as developed at the time, which is probably why communism developed the way it did eventually becoming Stalinist version rather than true to Marx's vision.

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

a POD between 1880s to 1920s

a POD between 1880s to 1920s

There were Communist or otherwise leftist movements throughout the world during this time, which all had varying degrees of success. The Spartacist Revolution in Germany, the Chrysanthemum Revolution in Hungary, the September Uprising in Bulgaria, Red Week in the Netherlands, and the French Army Mutinies of 1917 all could have resulted in the collapse of those regimes and the establishment of Communist systems.

Not to mention anti-colonial movements like the Easter Rising in Ireland; the diverse Indian revolutionary underground (the Delhi conspiracy case might be a fun POD); various Arab, Kurdish, Zionist, and Islamist factions in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq; the Philippine Revolution; etc. All of these had a Marxist element of some kind, even if it wasn't the prevailing ideology. There's also the leftist wing of the Turkish War for Independence, led by people like Şevket Aydemir, Mustafa Suphi, and Ethem Nejat; if they had won instead of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, Turkey would be a very different place.

Idk maybe the Mexican Revolution had a Communist element to it too; I know Calles was resolutely anti-Communist, but maybe he could have lost and a Communist faction could have won idk

 

[RelentlessFlowOfTime]

Germany had the largest socialist party in Europe as well as a thriving and militant labor movement. They had a major crisis that brought about a general collapse of the states ability to uphold itself and provided an opening for revolution when Germany lost the great war. If not Russia, Germany is the most logical birthplace of the revolution.
The biggest obstacle to a socialist revolution in Germany was, ironically, the aforementioned socialist party. The sectarianism between the reformists in the SPD and the revolutionaries who split from the party to form the USPD and, later, the KPD was what really halted the revolution in Germany OTL. If you can prevent that split or weaken the SPD while giving the USPD/KPD time to establish itself while still having the Germans loose WW1 then Germany would have a good chance of going red.

 

[HelloThere]

I'd say it's a close call between Germany and France. If the Tirpitz-plan to outlaw the SPD in 1914 would have gone through, the left-wing of the party could have organized a more centralized underground party which could have waited until the time was ripe.

 

[Gillan1220]

Germany would have been the next candidate.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Spain has a chance, IMO.

IDK if it would definitely be the first, though.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

No one.

Anywhere else, the foreign invasion assisting the Whites in the civil war would have succeeded. Russia is uniquely hard to invade.

China is probably the most likely, but didnt have a developed arms industry, would never have got one without a communist Russia and any revolution would have ended like the Boxer Rebellion.

 

[raharris1973]

If the Tirpitz-plan to outlaw the SPD in 1914 would have gone through

This was a thing?

 

[Aghasverov]

I'd say it's a close call between Germany and France. If the Tirpitz-plan to outlaw the SPD in 1914 would have gone through, the left-wing of the party could have organized a more centralized underground party which could have waited until the time was ripe.

The SPD had far too much popular support in 1914... Tirpitz was a fool for thinking such a thing would even be possible. Even Kaiser Willy, who loathed the SPD, was smart enough to know that he'd have a revolution on his hands if such a thing were attempted....

 

[oberdada]

No one.

Or it would probably be named communist, but look pretty different.
If he hadn't been a successful revolutionary, Lenin, his writings and political concepts would have long faded into obscurity.

 

[Qalqulserut]

I think the exact nature of the failure of the Russian Revolution will determine the fate of communism in that world. Just assuming that the Russian Revolution does not succeed and nobody from Russia goes elsewhere:

France - medium/low chance. Plenty of communist support during the interwar period, but not enough and not that close to going red. I don't know that much about the French communist parties and factions.

Germany - high chance. The issues for a 1918-1920s revolution are: misplaced trust in the SPD by communists (the SPD is quite hostile to communism. Just look at Hugh Ebert and Gustav Noske.), being short of just enough support (especially within the military), and being rather ill-prepared for revolution.
By the early 1930s - the SPD issue is less of a factor, but you need to get the KPD to be more militarized and willing to actually fight to take over. You have the issue of "accelerationists" within the party - people who believe that Nazi political victory will lead to further advancement of capitalism to the point of the contradictions within resolving through the failure of the state, ushering in the revolution. I think the lack of a USSR would only lead to a moderate KPD boost, so you'd need the nazis and far-right to be much less popular for a KPD victory. If you get the KPD to win the election, they have to fight to keep their winnings! The state, the other political parties and much of the military are hostile to communists. (true in pretty much every other country)

UK - very low chance. I don't recall communism being a popular movement at all.

Italy - high-ish chance. you'd need Benito Mussolini to not go brown, or butterfly him away somehow. Then it'd have a more decent chance (than even Germany) of going red IIRC.

Spain - low chance - even though the anarchists were popular if they do get to win they will be quite vulnerable. Republicans, even the monarchists, fascists, and other countries will have an easy time disrupting the affairs. They probably would need to govern with other communists or be superseded by them.

USA - low chance. There are plenty of "communist US" timelines though.

Mexico - high chance. low chance. depends on the popularity of the liberals, and the Vilistas simply aren't radical enough (IIRC). If you can radicalize the Vilistas or give the Zapatistas more power, thus forcing a Vilista-Zapatista government (after the Mexican Civil War) you can have Mexico go communist. The Vilistas are likely to supersede the Zapatistas though. A full Zapatista victory will result in the same issue as Spain. Edit: Of course, any US invasion would undo all of that.

 

[vultan]

No one.

Anywhere else, the foreign invasion assisting the Whites in the civil war would have succeeded. Russia is uniquely hard to invade.

What about the United States? Britain or some other European power might be able to seize a few ports should the United States be going through a civil war or other bout of internal turmoil, but actually invading and holding a significant chunk of America is well beyond their capacities by the late 1800s/early 1900s.

Which isn’t to say that America has or had a great deal of leftist revolutionary potential, but it’s not impossible to imagine. Think someone wrote a TL once about the Great Railroad Strike of 1877 (mostly forgotten today) going in that direction:

Great Railroad Strike of 1877 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[irispaiva]

Mexico - high chance.

What stops the USA from undoing the revolution via an invasion? The early red scare is going to be even worse with communist Mexico

 

[Qalqulserut]

What stops the USA from undoing the revolution via an invasion? The early red scare is going to be even worse with communist Mexico

Ah, yes, that's true - I forgot about that. In that case, Mexico would have a low chance.

 

[Legofan4]

What stops the USA from undoing the revolution via an invasion? The early red scare is going to be even worse with communist Mexico

Which let us remember that during the Mexican Revolution in OTL the U.S. did invade at least Veracruz during the war.

 

[HelloThere]

This was a thing?

The SPD had far too much popular support in 1914... Tirpitz was a fool for thinking such a thing would even be possible. Even Kaiser Willy, who loathed the SPD, was smart enough to know that he'd have a revolution on his hands if such a thing were attempted....

To be fair, most of the conspirators in that plan only planned to do it in case the SPD refused to support the war loans. And if the SPD would have done that, I think there would have a big enough majority to support a "patriotic" dictatorship in 1914.

 

[Born in the USSA]

What about the United States? Britain or some other European power might be able to seize a few ports should the United States be going through a civil war or other bout of internal turmoil, but actually invading and holding a significant chunk of America is well beyond their capacities by the late 1800s/early 1900s.

Which isn’t to say that America has or had a great deal of leftist revolutionary potential, but it’s not impossible to imagine. Think someone wrote a TL once about the Great Railroad Strike of 1877 (mostly forgotten today) going in that direction:

Great Railroad Strike of 1877 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The Great Upheaval was really interesting. With a name like that how could it not be? There was apparently a real fear by the government and elites that the Great Railroad Strike and the decade long turmoil it kicked off would birth a Paris Commune in the United States. It features prominently in Act III of my King in Yellow TLIAW collection (Raise the Black Flag!: A Jersey Devil TLIAW). It builds on a few earlier changes to hypercharge the American individualist anarchist movement, to the point where it's still around in the present day, the Great Lakes are English-German bilingual, and top-down eugenics is completely butterflied in the United States in favor of Egoist Ubermensch trying to create superior children themselves.

 

[Captain Seafort]

What stops the USA from undoing the revolution via an invasion? The early red scare is going to be even worse with communist Mexico

Ah, yes, that's true - I forgot about that. In that case, Mexico would have a low chance.

So the chances of Mexico being the world's first communist state are high, but the chances of that state lasting longer than it takes to drive from the Rio Grande to Mexico City are low?

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

What about the United States? Britain or some other European power might be able to seize a few ports should the United States be going through a civil war or other bout of internal turmoil, but actually invading and holding a significant chunk of America is well beyond their capacities by the late 1800s/early 1900s.

Which isn’t to say that America has or had a great deal of leftist revolutionary potential, but it’s not impossible to imagine. Think someone wrote a TL once about the Great Railroad Strike of 1877 (mostly forgotten today) going in that direction:

Great Railroad Strike of 1877 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Ah, but the American whites would be in a much stronger position. Russia's entire armaments industry was in Petrograd, bolsheviks took that and thus had overwhelming advantage.

This couldnt happen in the US. Foreign intervention (if even needed) would be at the request and with massive assistance from counter revolutionary forces who would hold at least a good chunk of the nations war industry. Also it is unlikely that the US could get the sort of decisive military humiliation that the Russian army got in WWI.

Russian revolution was a perfect storm.