If not for the Tsunami would it have been a given that the Mongols would have conquered Japan?

The second Mongol fleet had over 4000 ships and 140,000 soldiers and was the largest naval invasion until D-Day 750 years later. Is there any doubt that if not for the Tsunami that struck that the Mongols would have successfully conquered Japan? Would the Japanese resistance have been able to put up a fight to repel them?
 
Two questions:
1 - Did Japanese fortresses and town walls contain enough stone to defeat Mongolian light cavalry?
2 - How effective would Mongolian light cavalry be in Japanese mountains?
 
The mystical Kamikaze the repelled the Mongol Invasions were both Typhoons (or Hurricanes if you care to call them that). They were not tsunamis. They were giant storms.
 
Two questions:
1 - Did Japanese fortresses and town walls contain enough stone to defeat Mongols?
Castles didn't stop the Mongols in China, Persia, the Middle East, Russia, or anywhere, so I doubt it would be any different in Japan.

2 - How effective would Mongolian light cavalry be in Japanese mountains?
Do remember that despite being famous for their cavalry the mongols also made extensive use of auxiliaries, so that may be a non factor. Needless to say, if the mongols can land a force in Japan, Japan is in trouble. They might be to remain unconquered, but it sure as hell won't be an easy time.
 
Castles didn't stop the Mongols in China, Persia, the Middle East, Russia, or anywhere, so I doubt it would be any different in Japan.

That depends on how you define what a castle is. In the western European use of the term (where they were far more prominent than in China or the ME) a Castle is the fortified residence of a noble and his family. They also weren't just a simple stone wall surrounding a keep, European castles were architectural death traps designed to keep anyone you don't want in, out. Even the Mongols couldn't penetrate any of the few stone Hungarian Castles that were built at that time. I'm hesitant to comment on the state of Chinese fortifications as I'm not familiar in that subject but it is notable that the Diaoyu Fortress (not a true castle btw) was able to hold out for two decades until the soldiers inside surrendered
 
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In the first campaign, a large area of northern Kyushu could probably have been destroyed.
But it would have been repulsed in the end. After all, the Mongols were unable to carry their most pivotal cavalry across the sea.
In the second campaign, the Japanese nearly defeated the Mongols before the kamikaze.
 
1. Mongols took China with strong defenses
And it took decades upon decades to conquer China, which is a far wealthier country than Japan. I think between the mountains and castles, the Mongol conquest of Japan is an utter slog that probably stops somewhere between Kansai and Kanto since the Mongols won't have much reason to keep campaigning there when there's wealthier, easier to invade places. Long-term it's a Yuan client state that will likely gradually assert independence versus the "real" Japan who probably fight numerous wars before one side re-unifies Japan sometime in the 15th century or so.
 
Japan’s topography is a major setback for the Mongols. even if they had horses, cavalry would be rendered useless by issues of transportation. their best bet would likely be to turn nascent Kamakura shogunate into a client state. even then authority is still quite decentralized so chances of overall pacification are very low imho. while truly organized resistance to mongol ‘occupation’ is unlikely, the mongols could probably never establish more than nominal control over japan.
 
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