I've seen different analyses, but I'd like to throw this question to the Board. He could probably still be re-elected, but how would his health be affected without the stress of running America's biggest war?
Actually I think FDR probably could not have won a third term if not for World War 2. I remember that there was some polling by Gallup showing that FDR would lose in 1940 if the war had ended before the November Election Date.
I don't think the GOP can win in 1940. They have the blame for the Depression on their shoulders in the public mind, were still influenced by the Conservatives who were against the New Deal and generally any such reform efforts along similar lines which doesn't play well with the middle/working class (albeit I think Wilkie said he'd have kept most of the New Deal, but just make it more efficient; a common Liberal Republican complaint was not Social Liberalism in economy, but that they could handle it without producing the same waste) and the GOP is the party which represented big business which the public still blamed for causing the Depression. FDR has an economy which is improving, and he had an approval rating around 50% or so around the election.Actually I think FDR probably could not have won a third term if not for World War 2. I remember that there was some polling by Gallup showing that FDR would lose in 1940 if the war had ended before the November Election Date.
His Health would probably still decline, but not as rapidly. By 1944, he was in pretty bad shape in OTL. In this ATL, he still would have stress of dealing with the recovery from the Depression (not as swift as in our timeline as there is no increased industrial production due to military orders here and overseas)
Again, no war = people being a lot more okay with isolationism.
A Catholic could not be elected in '40 because a plurality of voters, according to Gallup, would rule it out under any circumstances.
RogueBeaver said:I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least two impeachment attempts on Farley.
RogueBeaver said:The South might even form a Dixiecrat party a generation earlier due to the choice between a Catholic and the socially liberal heirs of Lincoln.
RogueBeaver said:Particularly when Farley is a Democratic Karl Rove with Nixonian ethics