If No World War I, what about the Ottomans?

hey, all. once again, my notes turned up something that i want to address before i go much further. it used to be for my ASB ATL that WWI was replaced by a regional war between Serbia and Austria and their respective allies, which gets Ottoman Turkey involved as well. as a secondary POD, i'd written in that Ataturk dies during the war (or else just doesn't come to power), though tbph i forget exactly why i'd written that part in.

anyway, for this discussion i want to try to figure out what would happen to the Ottoman Empire in the event of World War I not taking place as well as addressing two possibilities with Ataturk where he either lives (but doesn't necessarily come to power) or dies prematurely. any ideas on this?
 
Well the fantastic, if somewhat implausible but still amazing, Arabesk trilogy by early AH friendly & great writer Jon Courtenay Grimwood speculates on the issue in a rather interesting fashion.

The Ottomans could have handled their empire, but with a WWI POD it is rather unlikely they would have succeeded although there is a chance. In the event of no war plus reform time by the right leader… well, the possibilities are vast.
 

Deleted member 94680

No WWI probably means a dissolved Ottoman Empire sometime in the late 20s?

The imperial powers had their eyes on several parts of the Porte's territories and the Young Turks weren't doing that well at managing internal dissent. There's every chance no WWI means an Ottoman Civil War and the British and French step in to "protect" their respective "clients".

If no WWI means the Russians keep the Tsar and St Petersburg keeps things together for a couple more decades, with the right intervention, you might even see a Russian Constantinople.

There's every chance Ataturk doesn't make it to become, well, Ataturk as he was quite fond of leading from the front. There was at least one time in the Gallipoli Campaign where he exposed himself to enemy fire to steady his troops, artillery even IIRC. That kind of thing easily go wrong.
 

Deleted member 94680

What about the Armenian Genocide? Would this have been avoided?

Unfortunately probably not. There had been massacres of the Armenians in 1878, 1895 and 1909 the last one under the control of the Young Turks.

The Young Turks played the "Internal Traitor" card with minimal 'evidence' during their campaigns against the Russians.

ITL if the Russians make a play for Constantinople, or even in the case of an Ottoman Civil War, they'd probably do it again.

There was a lot of mistrust and even hatred to the Armenian population, so any destabilisation of the Ottoman regime would probably result in a genocide of one level or another.
 
What about the Armenian Genocide? Would this have been avoided?

Only partially. The Ottoman government was already engaged in large-scale ethnic cleansing against its Greek population before WWI. And there had already been anti-Armenian massacres before, as Stenz mentioned. Once the Greeks have been dealt with, the Young Turks regime will probably direct its attention towards the Armenians.

If the Empire stays at peace, it will be much less bloody than OTL's events: going by the pattern used against Greeks, some Armenians would be murdered, but the great majority would be expelled/forced to flee, not killed. If it's at war...anything goes.
 
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