If New England successfully seceded during the War of 1812, wouldn't that lead to another later war?

Deleted member 97083

With the typical Hartford Convention POD, and New England seceding to become a British puppet state, there are a few interesting considerations. New England settlers formed the majority of settlers in the Midwest area, which would become the second most economically powerful part of the OTL US (after New England) for many decades. New England was also the most industrialized part of the US for an even longer period.

ITTL, due to steady population growth in the relatively small New England, would this not lead to significant settlement of Upstate New York, Michigan, Ohio, etc. by New Englanders crossing the border into the US? If so could this lead to a Republic of Texas situation? Causing a third war between the US and Britain, instigated by New England?

Furthermore, even without this flashpoint, wouldn't the remaining states in the US be quite vengeful against the war, and seek to retake New England at a later point? With Britain on the side of New England, when could this US-instigated war take place and who would win it? I would think the British would have to, since New England was highly industrialized and the British would retain naval superiority.
 

Malta

I think part of this depends on if Pennsylvania and New Jersey joins them or not. I think at least there is a good chance of it considering Philadelphia.
 
Dan1988

Dan1988

Achaemenid Rome said:
But would New York even join? If New York isn't part of New England, then New Jersey and Pennsylvania won't be.
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As with the OP, it depends on the timing, the circumstances leading up to it, if the elder statesmen of the Federalist Party try to control or dampen the process (as was largely the case IOTL), and how New England actually secedes. With New York, there's also the Downstate/Upstate rivalry to consider. One could have all or part of Upstate secede to join New England and leave Downstate alone. One could even try to divide Long Island in half and have the more Yankee-settled eastern part join New England. While it would be nice to have all of New York State, most likely with these types of POD, if New York comes along for the ride it will only be a part or parts of the OTL state.
 

The Gunslinger

The chance of New England seceding in the War of 1812 in just north of 0. Even if the British smash America in the northwest, sack Baltimore and crush them at Plattsburgh I doubt that the folks at Hartford will be seriously be calling for secession. In OTL, all of those guys advocating it were told to stay home. If they do leave though, it'll be New England and maybe New York. Even though New York suffered mightily from the British blockade they fielded a lot of men for the Union and were quite pro-war all things considered.

I think that you could set it up for a northern secession down the road (no earlier than 1836 is my guess), but secession in 1815 is very, very slim. I'd be willing to bet that the whole slavery and its 3/5 vote will cause a lot more strife than OTL. IF Britain hems in the north by cutting off a good chunk of the old northwest and IF the America makes an earlier play for Texas and gets an additional slave state in the 1820s land boom and IF the 3/5 compromise still angers people and IF The Northwest ordinance can get overturned and Indiana/Illinois goes slavery (it was fairly close OTL) and IF you get a few lousy presidents (1824-36ish) then MAYBE you could get a northern secession and a civil war during the big crash that year. But even that wouldn't be like the OTL Civil War, it would be more of a battle over places like Ohio/Pennsylvania that were northern but had deep ties to the Union.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

The Gunslinger said:
The chance of New England seceding in the War of 1812 in just north of 0. Even if the British smash America in the northwest, sack Baltimore and crush them at Plattsburgh I doubt that the folks at Hartford will be seriously be calling for secession. In OTL, all of those guys advocating it were told to stay home. If they do leave though, it'll be New England and maybe New York. Even though New York suffered mightily from the British blockade they fielded a lot of men for the Union and were quite pro-war all things considered.

I think that you could set it up for a northern secession down the road (no earlier than 1836 is my guess), but secession in 1815 is very, very slim. I'd be willing to bet that the whole slavery and its 3/5 vote will cause a lot more strife than OTL. IF Britain hems in the north by cutting off a good chunk of the old northwest and IF the America makes an earlier play for Texas and gets an additional slave state in the 1820s land boom and IF the 3/5 compromise still angers people and IF The Northwest ordinance can get overturned and Indiana/Illinois goes slavery (it was fairly close OTL) and IF you get a few lousy presidents (1824-36ish) then MAYBE you could get a northern secession and a civil war during the big crash that year. But even that wouldn't be like the OTL Civil War, it would be more of a battle over places like Ohio/Pennsylvania that were northern but had deep ties to the Union.
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Actually, the probability is a lot higher than that. Still very low, but not as low as you suggest.
I agree that New England declaring independence as a direct result of the Hartford Convention is as low as you think. But if demands, e.g. of various Constitutional Amendments, are actually issued, that will infuriate the rest of the US, and there could be a quickly escalating war of words that embitters both sides. Something sort of like the Czechoslovak breakup OTL might happen - neither side actually wants to split, really, but the negotiating positions are so very far apart that agreement just isn't possible.
This could lead to New England separating, even though it hadn't really meant to originally.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

Achaemenid Rome said:
ITTL, due to steady population growth in the relatively small New England, would this not lead to significant settlement of Upstate New York, Michigan, Ohio, etc. by New Englanders crossing the border into the US?
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Possibly. But it's also possible those New Englanders will move to e.g. British Michigan, say.
New England isn't going to secede unless the war goes much worse for the US and/or lasts rather longer. In which case, the Brits probably gain significant chunks of US territory, nominally as a Native Protectorate, but, let's face it, those natives will be swamped by white immigrants shortly.
 

Mikestone8

Achaemenid Rome said:
Furthermore, even without this flashpoint, wouldn't the remaining states in the US be quite vengeful against the war, and seek to retake New England at a later point? With Britain on the side of New England, when could this US-instigated war take place and who would win it? I would think the British would have to, since New England was highly industrialized and the British would retain naval superiority.
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Depends what happens on the slavery front.

If things still get strained between North and South, the latter may be quite happy to have a dozen or so fewer Northern Senators in Washington.
 
water123

water123

I mean, without New England (and even worse without New York) America will probably become a lot more slavocratic, as electoral votes pile in the south. This also could butterfly away slavocratic decentralization as most of the secession talk will start to come from the north.
 

The Gunslinger

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
Actually, the probability is a lot higher than that. Still very low, but not as low as you suggest.
I agree that New England declaring independence as a direct result of the Hartford Convention is as low as you think. But if demands, e.g. of various Constitutional Amendments, are actually issued, that will infuriate the rest of the US, and there could be a quickly escalating war of words that embitters both sides. Something sort of like the Czechoslovak breakup OTL might happen - neither side actually wants to split, really, but the negotiating positions are so very far apart that agreement just isn't possible.
This could lead to New England separating, even though it hadn't really meant to originally.
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I agree that it's a scenario, but it would take years and years to happen. That much animosity and negotiating doesn't just happen overnight.

And I think the Czech 'Velvet Divorce' is unlikely just for the fact that you're going to have slave-free regions like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Ohio that are all pro-Union but anti-slavery. It's not impossible, but a USA that's driven to the point of secession over slavery probably has strong opinions on both sides about it.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

The Gunslinger said:
I agree that it's a scenario, but it would take years and years to happen. That much animosity and negotiating doesn't just happen overnight.

And I think the Czech 'Velvet Divorce' is unlikely just for the fact that you're going to have slave-free regions like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Ohio that are all pro-Union but anti-slavery. It's not impossible, but a USA that's driven to the point of secession over slavery probably has strong opinions on both sides about it.
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War of 1812 wasn't about slavery. ???
 

AnonymousSauce

The Gunslinger said:
I think that you could set it up for a northern secession down the road (no earlier than 1836 is my guess), but secession in 1815 is very, very slim. I'd be willing to bet that the whole slavery and its 3/5 vote will cause a lot more strife than OTL. IF Britain hems in the north by cutting off a good chunk of the old northwest and IF the America makes an earlier play for Texas and gets an additional slave state in the 1820s land boom and IF the 3/5 compromise still angers people and IF The Northwest ordinance can get overturned and Indiana/Illinois goes slavery (it was fairly close OTL) and IF you get a few lousy presidents (1824-36ish) then MAYBE you could get a northern secession and a civil war during the big crash that year. But even that wouldn't be like the OTL Civil War, it would be more of a battle over places like Ohio/Pennsylvania that were northern but had deep ties to the Union.
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That would be an interesting scenario, so Britain is somehow able to smash America in the War of 1812 and takes all of the ONW/Louisiana north of the 42nd Parallel, NW Ordinance is overturned and IL/IN join as slave states, MO Compromise never happens, and eventually you get a flashpoint from either American expansion into northern Mexico or from the Supreme Court ruling that slaveowners are legally entitled to bring/utilize their chattel anywhere. So the Northeast secedes, prolly with British assistance, with or without states like Jersey, PA, Ohio and perhaps Downstate NY (I suppose they would be like the Border states in this TL, and Downstate could potentially be WV) The Union would eventually swallow the entire OTL Mexican Cession and turn it into slave states, and all of Oregon would end up as part of Canada.
 
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