If Nazis win how long would the French resistance movement keep up?

If the Nazis are somehow successful in the West than what would happen to the French resistance movement? I have trouble seeing it giving out just like that but I'm also not sure if it would be able to keep up the same momentum with the Nazis not having to concentrate on a war. How long would the resistance movement maintain a steady momentum before people come to terms with the situation?
For this scenario, let's say that Hitler gets assassinated early on in the war and Himmler takes over and opts to focus on consolidating a few new territories, such as France and the low countries, instead of trying for more than the Germans can realistically handle, such as campaigns against the British, USSR, and North Africa and a declaration of war against the US.
 

Deleted member 1487

If the Nazis are somehow successful in the West than what would happen to the French resistance movement? I have trouble seeing it giving out just like that but I'm also not sure if it would be able to keep up the same momentum with the Nazis not having to concentrate on a war. How long would the resistance movement maintain a steady momentum before people come to terms with the situation?
For this scenario, let's say that Hitler gets assassinated early on in the war and Himmler takes over and opts to focus on consolidating a few new territories, such as France and the low countries, instead of trying for more than the Germans can realistically handle, such as campaigns against the British, USSR, and North Africa and a declaration of war against the US.
In an early win then the Resistance probably don't get off the ground that much and remains confined to the Communists, but is stamped out over time as future generations become more Fascist. Of course much depends on the scenario and how horrible the Nazi occupation stays; if it eases off and Vichy returns to Paris then likely the Resistance doesn't get much traction due to most people just wanting to get on with their lives, if things aren't bad enough to make them resist, the vast majority of people that fought back against Vichy and the Nazis just won't bother because they can live a decent life doing something else, even if the regime is not allowing political freedoms. If there is a lot of active external support 'resistance' would likely be limited to intelligence gathering against the Nazis and Vichy regime.
Himmler would not have taken over BTW, especially early on. Goering was Hitler's named successor and if he took over in 1940 after the victory over France (before he lost credibility), then he probably doesn't do Barbarossa and focuses on ending the war with Britain, perhaps even letting the Soviets into the Axis during those talks in November. If that is the case and the Brits cut a deal in 1941 then the Soviets probably keep up their intelligence gather activities in France via the Communist party, but that mostly gets dismantled in the 1940s if there isn't a war on and life is livable for most French people.
 
Note that the Resistance per se really took off once it became obvious the Germans were losing. It was initially a very small movement, which has since been inflated in popular memory, both with latecomers and also due to a concerted effort, by the post-war French Communists (who wanted to emphasize their own role as the initial core of the Resistance for later political gains), other French (who wanted to erase the shame of their defeat by making it seem as if they had never "really" been defeated) and the Allies (who wanted to marginalize the Communist role by portraying it as a massive French movement). If the Allies are seen as never having a chance (or quit early), then the Resistance never really becomes more than a tiny movement by a few anti-Fascists, who can be rounded up perfectly well either by the Germans or by the Vichyists.

On the other hand, note that Spanish Republican guerrillas held out in parts of Spain well into the 1940s, so if the war is somehow seen as more evenly matched, you might have Communist guerrillas holding out for several years before being rounded up (as the Germans will have bigger fish to fry).
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
With the Communists, likely as long as Moscow tells them to or the Germans kill them all, and the Germans certainly did kill a lot of resistance members and were very good at penetrating their networks. The issue came once the Germans started losing, and the Resistance gained a lot of new members and really became more like an ongoing revolt by early-mid 1944. But if the Nazis were to win the war, the Resistance would be quite powerless and stamped out by 1950 at the latest in any sort of organized form (sporadic resistance of course would exist likely almost indefinitely, but nothing serious). Of course, a cut off in British support might mean even earlier.

The truth is that the Vichy regime was far more popular than most like to admit. The political right, outside of the patriotic war mongering militarists, saw the Germans as preferable to the Popular Front, and the system of compulsory labor and the huge amount of POWs taken ensured most of the rest of the population stayed docile. The Left was set against itself, and only the Communists really had the organizational ability to form a solid resistance group, and often the Communists were as hostile to other resistance groups, even left leaning groups, as they were to the Milice and Germans.
 

Deleted member 1487

The truth is that the Vichy regime was far more popular than most like to admit. The political right, outside of the patriotic war mongering militarists, saw the Germans as preferable to the Popular Front, and the system of compulsory labor and the huge amount of POWs taken ensured most of the rest of the population stayed docile.
I don't think that means Vichy was popular, just that the public was ambivalent to resistance to it. It lost legitimacy in 1942 and ultimately fell apart with the German occupation of Vichy in November, after which the Resistance picked up. It was considered the legitimate government of France, the continuation of the pre-occupation government (the Free French didn't really become a major thing until 1942 and the Torch Landing), so the public just accepted it as much as the pre-war government, but just with as much disdain/resignedness to it's existence. As the US entered the war and Vichy became less of a legitimate government and the war turned against the Nazis then the French people started to hate it. In the long run with a German victory they might well come to hate it too if the government cannot deliver a decent life for it's people due to the Nazi peace terms, much like Weimar.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
I don't think that means Vichy was popular, just that the public was ambivalent to resistance to it. It lost legitimacy in 1942 and ultimately fell apart with the German occupation of Vichy in November, after which the Resistance picked up. It was considered the legitimate government of France, the continuation of the pre-occupation government (the Free French didn't really become a major thing until 1942 and the Torch Landing), so the public just accepted it as much as the pre-war government, but just with as much disdain/resignedness to it's existence. As the US entered the war and Vichy became less of a legitimate government and the war turned against the Nazis then the French people started to hate it. In the long run with a German victory they might well come to hate it too if the government cannot deliver a decent life for it's people due to the Nazi peace terms, much like Weimar.
I think that if Hitler was victorious in the East to the point where what he was looking for, an quasi-autarkic economy where German dominated Europe did not need to deal with Britain or the United States, fueled by servile labor from inferior races, and a high standard of living for both the industrial German population inside of Germany and the pastoral Eastern settlers propped up by military rule and slavery, there would be a relaxing of conditions on the French. I don't know where Nazi race ideology held them, but they weren't at the level of the Slavs or Jews.
 
Likely it would have been over as any sort of significant force in a decade or so. However, taking the Republicans in Spain as an example, anarchists and communists were semi-regularly striking out in terrorist acts as late as the 70's, often only symbolic attacks, such as the demolition of the monument to the Condor Legion in Barcelona in 1968, but also illegal strikes and sabotage.
 

Deleted member 1487

I think that if Hitler was victorious in the East to the point where what he was looking for, an quasi-autarkic economy where German dominated Europe did not need to deal with Britain or the United States, fueled by servile labor from inferior races, and a high standard of living for both the industrial German population inside of Germany and the pastoral Eastern settlers propped up by military rule and slavery, there would be a relaxing of conditions on the French. I don't know where Nazi race ideology held them, but they weren't at the level of the Slavs or Jews.
OP suggested that there was no war in the East, so I'm basing my thoughts on that.
 
While the UK might give some support to resistance movements in Europe, after a German victory in the east and some sort of cessation of hostilities between Germany and the UK, this aid would be limited and "deniable". Depending upon the British government, this might not even be going on. In any case you may see the communists continuing resistance simply because they are doomed anyways. As far as the bulk of those who were with the resistance OTL after 42/43, they will go along top get along. In a scenario where there is no war in the east, and some accomodation has been made with the UK, the Nazis will be free to devote whatever resources are necessary to stamp out any resistance elements. After a few years, you may still see some actions, but with no prospect of the Germans being evicted from France, and the sort of reprisals that will be carried out,most Frenchmen will be willing to cooperate in turning in resisters to avoid seeing their families shot or worse.

Absent some sort of outside ally, and/or something going on to disrupt the occupier, an indigenous resistance will have a very steep climb to succeed. I am doubtful that such a movement absent an outside ally has ever succeeded.
 

Wendigo

Banned
From @CalBear's AANW TL:

One thing that needs to be kept in mind about France is that the country we know died on February 12, 1947 with the bombing holiday. Until then, despite the best efforts of the Gestapo and SS a significant number of resisters had been in hiding, waiting for the Allies to come. When the Allies made their deal, even though it wasn't "peace" it was enough to make it clear that the Anglo/Americans were abandoning Europe to its fate.

Even the bravest man needs hope. The Resistance lost all hope on that cold winter day. Members either decided to try to do something on their own or they simply gave up. Either way the became vulnerable to Nazis either by acting out or being too open about their feelings which earned a one way trip East, or to the Nazi promise the France would regain her glory as part of a United Europe with Germany as its leader.

By the time the Hot War resumed (something that may not have happened for another decade without the St Patrick Day raids) many saw the Allies as the enemy, a belief that was helped by the amount of explosives Allied planes and ships deposited onto France where it killed as many French civilians as it did Waffen SS troops. As the war progressed the Reich did grave damage to France, destroying much of her history, the Allies nuked the country, with everything that entails. It is hardly surprising that the Allies are little loved in much of France.
 
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