Indeed.
Probably would need to win the war before December of 1941 at the latest.
If Nazi Germany won would Hitler keep Göring as his heir or choose someone else like Himmler?
- Thread starter Captain Homicide
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Probably would need to win the war before December of 1941 at the latest.
Uhh, not necessarily.
Speer was already rising in prominence: he had already shown significant skill in his post as GBI and from his previous commissions, such as the construction of the Chancellery, both as someone who could produce results and as a bureaucratic infighter. Sure, he hasn't obtained such a post that could give him a central position in the Reich in so many respects (a ministerial post, a position of paramount importance to the war effort and with significant control over the economy); however, he still is in charge of an organisation that was probably second to OT in the sector of construction. The post-war reconstruction would however, give him many of these: a large degree of control over manpower and resources that would in turn give him the ability to influence the economy (especially if Todt retired, in which case Speer would have a good chance to take his positions as well, although he would face competition from the Party); a chance to show his managerial and organisational skills; a chance to create ties both with the business world and the Party functionaries (since the Gauleiters would be personally invested in reconstruction as well); and, especially if the Germans have conquered the East, personal financial power rivalled by almost no one, which in turn would allow him to build his own large patronage network and gain influence. Furthermore, Speer probably had one of the closest working relationships with Hitler and, provided he delivered as the latter expected, this bond would most likely remain.
Also, there wasn't such a differentiation between Hess and Bormann, for two reasons: first, Bormann would most likely never shoot for the post of Führer itself, for various reasons, and secondly, he wouldn't need to, as he and Hess had basically identical political goals (partification) when Hess was Deputy Führer, so, due to the aforementioned reason, he would just remain behind Hess.
Another thing is that while Hess may be deteriorating, the same would apply to Göring too; even if his drug addiction doesn't return, he would still have to deal with obesity and the likely cardiovascular problems that could result from his lifestyle. Furthermore, his position wouldn't be exactly safe: from the Party, Reichsreform would most likely return to the forefront after the end of the war, and the StdF would most likely focus on Prussia, which would be the largest of the states. The replacement of Prussia wouldn't happen overnight, but this doesn't mean that the Party wouldn't move in a rather expeditious manner on this one. While the post may seem trivial at first glance, it would actually constitute a big hit on Göring, since his influence on various administrative matters would decrease. After the end of the war, the importance of the Luftwaffe, while still great, would simply not be the same as during wartime and the general move towards a more peacetime economic organisation would affect Göring's position too.
Many can of course ask whether Hitler would remove Göring, one of his older comrades, a man who took a bullet during the Beer Hall Putsch in 1923 and who had helped him so much during the Kampfzeit, which is true. But this isn't a constant given, I think. For example, it's also certainly true that Hitler showed a great degree of "commitment" to various Gauleiters that had been old Party members/Old Fighters, intervening on their behalf and keeping them in place despite true or alleged shortcomings. But IOTL, he agreed over the course of 1943 to the replacement of a good number of them that had become incapacitated or developed serious health problems; while Göring's case is certainly different and more delicate, I think it helps to show that he wasn't dead set on keeping persons he had (relatively) close ties with in their posts until their death. So time would probably be against Göring: even if Hess is removed (which, as you said is not a given), Bormann would keep trying to expand the Party's reach - including at Göring's expense, while Speer could still rise to prominence, if not as quickly as OTL, and Göring's own health and personal problems, if they grew worse and Hess was aleady out of the picture, could prompt Hitler to change his decision and push for a more youthful figure, which could in turn be an opportunity for Speer or (indirectly) for Bormann .
Hess, I believe would be actually perhaps in a better position: at least in theory, he is the Deputy Führer, and while he isn't very interested (personally) in the incessant battles taking place between the regime's factions, he has Bormann to fight his battles for him (of course, Bormann didn't do it for Hess, but it would be in his interest to keep Hess relevant). So, with the war ending somewhat early, the Party on the ascendant and Göring's aforementioned issues as well as his position on the succession line according to Hitler's announcement, he could be said to have a better chance.
I dont think the SS would really take over, especially not Himmler as he wasnt rather unpopular and not that close to power, also the SS was not as powerfull as many people think before the Staufenberg attack (which i guess would not have happened if germany was winning the war) I am not sure about Speer tho, he had good personal connections to Hitler i think, but to me it always seemed like he was just the favourite artist of Hitler not really a politician or leader
What do you mean? By the mid 1950s Himmler, Bormann, Speer and Goebbels would all be in their 50s. Not exactly ancient considering they didn’t have anywhere near the health problems that Hitler had.
The economic problem that lead to defeat in ww2 were there before ww2.
The failure to stockpile reserves of strategic materials before the war doom the whole war effort before it started.
Also, the mismanagement of the economy and the spending of money on useless mega civil engineering projects like autobahns etc diverted resources that could have been used on improving the rail system or many other projects that could have helped win the war.
By the time Albert speer got real power, it was already too late.
I’ve never heard this. Maybe he figured he wouldn’t live very long but it depends when he said it. If he said it in 1939, I’d be shocked. In 1945, yeah even if they pulled some sort of victory out of their butts, he isn’t living long. Maybe a more successful battle of the bulge might give them that but the Allies might ask Hitler to step down. Heck, get rid of the old guard and have a guy like Speer take over and have him be a leader of an essentially new German state and allow for Nazis to get away except for a few. Hitler himself might even be executed in such a scenario.
I didn't say anything about the economy in that Speer would deliver results and win the war all by himself. I even said that with the war ending early, he wouldn't land on the portfolio of Armaments and Munitions.
What I said is that with the great focus likely to be placed on construction after the war, as Hitler and the Gauleiters would scramble to build across Germany and (if the USSR has been defeated) the East, a rather large share of the economy would gradually come to revolve around this sector of economic activity: the steel industry would work to a large extent for it, providing cranes, steel for buildings and whatnot, the automobile industry would probably become heavily invested in trucks and other machinery used in the construction sector and a large part of the workforce would be employed in those projects. At the same time, Speer would be responsible for that sector, therefore he would come to direct the aforementioned part of economic activity, which would translate in a great deal of influence (people would compete for his contracts etc.) and the ability to create ties with large industrial concerns as he did IOTL. Furthermore, while Speer wasn't a "wizard", he was by most accounts a very competent manager, and, more importantly, one who could tap talent and delegate work to it when he felt he wasn't up to the task (that's not of course to say that he was completely objective, since in order to maintain his position he would have to be constantly on alert and make sure that he got most of the credit, lest ambitious subordinates rose to prominence - his OTL relationship with Saur at the Ministry of Armaments and Munitions and, even more clearly, with Dorsch at the Organisation Todt help show this).
So, if Speer is in charge of most if not all construction in Germany, he would come to control the economy to a large extent, he would get a chance to show his skills as a manager and in an area where he would have greater experience, he would get the chance to become connected with various prominent figures and, really, build his popularity (construction is an easy way to do that, people usually like it); while he would still find himself under stressful conditions, since Hitler would probably push for the porjects to be completed rather quickly, this would probably be less so than having to manage armaments during wartime and at a moment when the war seems to not be going as well as expected. I didn't say that he would win the war or that his skills would solve the possible problems of the post war economy; in fact, he would have probable contributed to the latter, since he would stand to gain a lot on a personal level (honorariums, contracts for his architect office, kickbacks and "gifts" from companies and other architects in order to get contracts) by this focus on construction and thus obstruct or block efforts to redirect resources or implement reforms that could prevent the economy from overheating.
RuneGloves
Banned
Is Leon Degrelle eligable? He's not German, or Germanic, but is Western European, a decorated Waffen-SS officer, and would show a commitment to Pan-European relations, assuming the Europa Confederation route is taken.
Accurate. It could allow him to build a more productive arrangement with Gauleiters than in OTL. Contrary to his post-war myth-making, Speer was the exact opposite of a rank outsider to the Nazi movement. He was an incredibly power-hungry, ambitious man with a web of connections, but his relationship with the Party's regional strongmen was poor during the war, with the exception of Karl Kaufmann and Karl Hanke.
They resented his intrusion in the civilian economy in their local bailiwicks. For one, they were concernd about it upsetting public morale. Moreover, Speer was haughty and heavy-handed. Like, the speech he gave at the Posen conference was interpreted as him threatening to sic the SS on them if they did not comply with his order to shut down enterprises not deemed essential to the war economy. But in this scenario he's the guy who's bringing infrastructure, 'beautifying' their cities and building big buildings. A good way to build popularity, bring in jobs and raise their status - as well as graft, of course. Bormann has his proteges in the Party apparatus, but he doesn't have an absolute lock on it. Never mind the fact that the Old Fighters look down on him.
Moreover, Speer can also still forge a relationship with the SS. It started in the late 30s when Speer needed stones and forced labourers for his building projects, and Himmler needed capital and a way to expand his concetration camp empire at a time when it seemed to have lost many of its functions since there was no organised political opposition. Speer will no doubt be given major construction projects in the east, after all, and that's where the SS wants to build its based and agrarian settlements.
Nazi Germany was not a static regime. It was a dynamic one that was always in motion. No major bigwig could rest on their laurels and trust that a Führer order appointing them to such and such office would always be relevant because there was always someone else trying to win favour and push their agenda by 'working towards the Führer', which inevitably meant elbowing another bigwig simply because it was a mess of overlapping jurisdictions and competences. That was by design because it kept them dependent on Führer and conformed to his Social Darwinism. It's a mess of competing bureaucratic fiefdoms (after the Reich cabinet had its last meeting 1937, meetings between the state secretaries of various ministries effectively became a substitute for cabinet government, until Hitler prohibited that, too, leading to an incredibly cumbersome system where proposals for laws drafted by one ministry had to be sent from one affected agency to the next, leading to constant redrafting until it could eventually be submitted to Hitler - unless it was blocked by Lammers or Bormann - and signed by him, assuming he bothered).
This is what fuelled what Mommsen calls the 'cumulative radicalisation' of the regime. Hitler did show a degree of commitment to Old Fighters, hanging on to many even when they'd proved useless (and the Nazis weren't really in the habit of murdering their own, they were more commonly just forced into retirement or given crap jobs). Bormann still got him to drop some Old Fighters in the '40s. Moreover, if a bigwig was in a bind and his colleagues were intriguing against him, he couldn't count on Hitler bailing him out on account of years of loyalty.
The careers of men like Himmler, Heydrich, Speer, Bormann, Kaltenbrunner and many people on the lower levels such as Stuckart and various RSHA functionaries show that it was the kind of system where even comparatively young people who hadn't played a major role during the 'Kampfzeit' could rise fairly quickly if they had the right combination of ruthlessness, cunning, connections and circumstance (Kaltenbrunner's career is quite interesting since until his appointment as RSHA chief he was a provincial nobody with no connections other than Himmler. But after his promotion he showed he was a player in his own right, even managing to attain direct access to Hitler and bypass his boss).
In the short term, Göring benefits because he's the heir apparent, an Old Fighter with lots of assets and levers and has avoided the humiliations of OTL. He's also actually popular, affable, and can excite a crowd as a public performer, which is an advantage over many competitors - Heydrich hates giving speeches because of his high-pitched voice, Bormann has zero charm and no Volksgenosse even knows about him, Himmler is like a pedantic schoolmaster when he regurgitates the SS word salad. Speer definitely beats the aforementioned on the charm front, he more often than not gave off the image of being cold and haughty.
However, in the long term things look different. Göring was very smart and could be energetic in the short run, but got complacent and fixated on enjoying the trappings of power than exercising it. He had an unhealthy life style that can drag him down and turn the traits that made him appealing into a liability. He accumulated more offices and titles than he could manage, but could not let someone deputise for him since that would create a rival. If Hitler dies early in say the early '50s or so, then I'd say Göring has a good shot and the succession is his to lose. Most bigwigs could live with him for a time because he won't upset the applecart, which does not preclude his authority being challenged further down the line. But if Hitler holds on for longer, things could look very different.
As for the age question, Hitler's top minions were all younger than him. Göring was the oldest of the gang, having been born in 1893. Heydrich was born in 1904, Speer in 1905, Himmler and Bormann in 1900. While a successful outcome of the war will probably leave Hitler in better health, I don't think it will butterfly all his health problems. Especially not with Morell as his doctor.
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He'd be a pretty prominent figure in the new world order the nazis were aiming for; but within germany his role would be minimal imho.
I very much agree with this. I think the post-war cabinet would be a very interesting thing to see; not only because of many young, ambitious radicals but also because of the finalisation of the gleichschaltung and the dissolution of the old lander in favor of the gaue and other administrative reforms. It essentially removes the old civil service from play, and reduces to three major factions: the wehrmacht, the SS and the party (which is the new civil service).
Agreed. When imagining the power structure of a post-victory Nazi regime, it's common to assume the big players will all remain the same and still be around in the same capacity - Göring (unless the drugs kill him), Heydrich and/or Himmler, Goebbels, Bormann, Speer etc. This is understandable since they're the most well-known and the most has been written about them (though even there it varies - biographies on Bormann are sparse and much that's been written on Heydrich is popular history based on sensationalist myths and/or questionable memoirs by former minions, but I digress). Now the original inner circle will presumably still be around around and around the time Hitler kicks the bucket, but some new faces may well have joined, and depending on when that happens, not everyone who was part of the original gang may be around. A new up and coming figure might be a Nazi war hero (not a conventional general staffer, Hitler hated those, someone who can market himself as embodying the ideals of a 'dynamic, National Socialist warrior') or a successful Gauleiter who got the desired 'results' in record time.
Second echelon figures are less examined, especially in the Party. Orlow is super comprehensive, but also daunting due to the length of his study and reading about bureaucratic infighting between desk perpetrators is not the most riveting. However, given the way the regime worked and the processes that were already underway during the war (partification, the delayed Reichsreform, the infiltration of the civil administration by the SS and the latter's expanding role in business and Eastern policy, the continued Nazification of the Wehrmacht), the landscape in 10 to 20 years would probably be quite different, rather than simply having exactly the same grandees & power structures. And even on a lower level, the same guy will likely not be in charge of a Reichskommissariat in 1960 as in the '40s, barring the occasional exception (some will also have been integrated into the Reich by then, but I digress).
Even the Wehrmacht would be different. It's common to label the old Heer generals as the old 'Prussians' (usually with monarchist nostalgia) and just assume they'd always be that way. Leaving aside the fact that these men were, for the most part, for all their bloviating about being 'apolitical' all too willing to 'work towards the Führer' and become part of the Nazis' genocidal project, there will also be a new generation of leaders who started their career under the Nazi regime and will have found their faith in it affirmed by final victory. Indeed, the concern about the Nazification of the younger generation and the knowledge that they had little support among the rank file and officer corps was one of the reasons for the Valkyrie plotters to try and stage their coup under false pretense. Plus many of the old generals with deep roots in the Kaiser's army would eventually retire to their tax-free estates.
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Yes, but if we are talking about Hitler setting aside Göring for the likes of Himmler or Heydrich, we are already in the realm of "extreme choices driven by Hitler's mental deterioration."
As to the idea of "someone relatively unknown becoming the German Stalin via bureaucratic manoeuvres" - I honestly don't see it. Stalin's was possible because of the Soviet Party bureaucracy having relatively clear-cut rules and norms he was able to use to his advantage, as well as a culture of "unity" that frowned on factionalism - Nazi Germany isn't like that. It's entirely built around the concept of "Working Towards the Fürher" in a way that no office or organisation really had clear-cut authority over the others. Interdepartmental rivalry was positively encouraged on the grounds that Social Darwinism at all levels would see the best version of the Fürher's intentionally vague directives achieved. There's no Central Committee, no Party Congress, no Politburo - there's not even a Grand Council of Fascism. Hitler didn't even want to have cabinet meetings most of the time.
If you want to be the next Führer, you probably have to be two things - extremely popular, and handpicked by Hitler. You need a personality cult ready to go the moment you hit the ground running. A grey eminence emerging from a shadowy backroom will not work in the context of National Socialism, unless a drastic change of direction is in order. You won't get that from being a faceless suit - you'll get that by being a mini-Fürher of your own little empire with the general chaos of the Nazi State. This is what makes Göring such an obvious choice - he is popular with the public, a war hero, personally close to Hitler, ruthlessly competitive and determined at all times to build up his own power base. Most importantly of all he is likeable, which is an absolutely essential quality for a Fascist dictator, strange as that might sound. Someone who is more like Trotsky than Stalin does better in this kind of environment, honestly. Without charisma the whole thing simply stops making sense. Communist nations can have endless successions of stony faced old men who mumble their way through pedantic unoriginal speeches, but that will never work with Fascism. Safe pairs of hands are too parliamentarian, too liberal - you need to be a legend, a hero, a world historical personality - otherwise what is the point of having a Führer?
The Civil War in TNO may seem extreme but its hardly implausible that a SS solider will simply shot at a Party member if told to do so by the Reichsführer-SS, and a Wehrmacht solider will shot at the SS if told to do so by the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht. As to the Reichstag? There were absolute monarchies which had more regular parliamentary sessions - it no longer has any legitimacy.
Hitler himself believed there would eventually be "democratically" (he meant this in the most "Classical Republican" sense possible, his two models for ideal electoral systems were the Venetian Oligarchy, the Holy Roman Empire and the election of Popes) elected Führers, in the distant and glorious future, but not that there would be how his immediate successor was picked. Perhaps he decides to implement this system if he believes the war was a glorious enough victory that he can focus on constitutional matters. Hell, maybe he even retires and watches movie and paints pictures at the Eagles nest - he sometimes talked about that. Even in that instance, I believe the whole charade will be mainly a way of making Göring's, or some other handpicked successor, inevitable succession "exciting" for the peoples benefit.
The most important takeaway from Hitler's musings on electoral systems (which are typically long and rambling and are interspersed with concurrent tangents about monarchy, Napoleon, Fredrick the Great and the relative virtues of different European royals Hitler has met) is that he believed that the people shouldn't actually be involved, but should feel involved. The elite will choose the next Führer for them, but the people must feel its their choice anyway. The process would be mysterious, like a Papal election, but still inspire "democratic" pride. Honestly, its a bit of a wanting cake/eating it situation.
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