If Nazi Germany never came to be, when would the Soviet Union want to attack the West?

What if the Nazis never came to power or at least were marginalized and the Weimar Republic held on, when do you think the Soviets would have launched their attacks into Europe?

I think it's safe to say most major countries always have war plans for attacking or defending their nations. Trotsky definitely wanted to aggressively butt heads with the west while Stalin seemed to play the long game and probably would have wanted steamroll through Europe if he had the chance. The question is when would the Soviets have been at its peak strength or at least recovered from the Civil War and the Purges?

Do you think Stalin would have attacked in the early, mid, late 40s? Maybe even early 50s? Again, supposing if Weimar Germany still existed. That's not to say they would have been entirely pacifistic but it's unlikely Weimar Germany or even with Allied support would have struck first or ramped up rearmament as fast as Nazi Germany
 

chankljp

Donor
Unlike in Red Alert, why would Stalin attack the rest of Europe? He had been advocating for 'Socialism in One Country' instead of 'Permanent Revolution' since 1924.
 
Unlike in Red Alert, why would Stalin attack the rest of Europe? He had been advocating for 'Socialism in One Country' instead of 'Permanent Revolution' since 1924.
I always thought Stalin's aims was to focus on rebuilding the nation first, then when it's fully recovered and modernized, he could have had intentions to attack or at least bully smaller nations into submission (which could have triggered a different WWII)
 

Marc

Donor
A possibility, dependent on how truly divergent non-Nazi European history turns, is the eventual "recovery" of the Baltic States - Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland. It's not a difficult model to construct, the fine-tuning being how threatened Germany would feel, and how able they would be to respond. Poland, of course, would almost certainly take action, but a conflict in the 1930's is likely to have a very different, and much less favorable outcome from the early 1920's.
The USSR restored to its old Imperial borders, a plausible dream, don't you all think?
 
Unlike in Red Alert, why would Stalin attack the rest of Europe? He had been advocating for 'Socialism in One Country' instead of 'Permanent Revolution' since 1924.
And then invaded Finland and permanently settled down on the rest of Eastern Europe. "Socialism in one country" is just a slogan, a little bit lipstick on a big, fat and very ugly pig.
A possibility, dependent on how truly divergent non-Nazi European history turns, is the eventual "recovery" of the Baltic States - Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland. It's not a difficult model to construct, the fine-tuning being how threatened Germany would feel, and how able they would be to respond. Poland, of course, would almost certainly take action, but a conflict in the 1930's is likely to have a very different, and much less favorable outcome from the early 1920's.
The USSR restored to its old Imperial borders, a plausible dream, don't you all think?
It's possible imo... Weimar Germany and the SU had come closer together through cooperation and some agreements. The SU can attack Poland and Germany will stand aside and do nothing, and not allow any supplies or foreign militaries through itself to help Poland. In return they get back the Eastern territories.
 
Unlike in Red Alert, why would Stalin attack the rest of Europe? He had been advocating for 'Socialism in One Country' instead of 'Permanent Revolution' since 1924.

Really, "socialism in one country" has nothing to do with it.

"Socialism in one country" was an attempt to keep up the morale of the Bolsheviks after the failure of Europe to undergo successful Communist revolutions in 1918-23. If did not mean that the USSR would give up on encouraging revolutions abroad, only that as of circa 1925 there seemed little immediate chance that such revolutions would succeed (at least in Europe) and in the meantime the USSR could build socialism even without such revolutions.

I agree with Leszek Kolakowski, *Main Currents of Marxism*, "It is possible that if Trotsky had been in charge of Soviet foreign policy and the Comintern in the 1920s he would have taken more interest than Stalin did in organizing Communist risings abroad, but there is no reason to think his efforts would have had any success. Naturally he used every defeat of Communists in the world to accuse Stalin of neglecting the revolutionary cause. But it is not at all clear what Stalin could have done if he had been actuated by the internationalist zeal which Trotsky accused him of lacking. Russia had no no means of ensuring a German Communist victory in 1923 or a Chinese one in 1926. Trotsky's later charge that the Comintern failed to exploit revolutionary opportunities because of Stalin's doctrine of socialism in one country is completely devoid of substance." https://books.google.com/books?id=qUCxpznbkaoC&pg=PA807

Furthermore, even if we assume that Trotsky was more anxious than Stalin to encourage revolutions abroad, that is not the same thing as invading foreign countries with the Red Army. On that, Trotsky seems to have been if anything a bit more cautious than Stalin. Trotsky seems to have been at first reluctant to cross the Curzon Line and invade ethnic Poland in 1920. (Some people have questioned this, but Richard Pipes, not exactly an admirer of Trotsky, has defended him on this point: "Several historians have questioned whether Trotsky really opposed the invasion of Poland as he later claimed...But the documents cited against him date from August 1920, when the matter had long since been decided, and Trotsky, having fallen in line like a good Bolshevik, naturally desired a quick and decisive victory." Russia under the Bolshevik Regime, pp. 182-3.) In 1940 he was somewhat critical of Stalin's military expansion, remarking " Robespierre said that people do not like missionaries with bayonets. Naturally that does not exclude the right and duty to give military aid from without to peoples rebelling against oppression. For example in 1919 when the Entente strangled the Hungarian revolution, we naturally had the right to help Hungary by military measures. This aid would have been understood and justified by the laboring masses of the world. Unfortunately we were too weak ... At present the Kremlin is much stronger from a military point of view. However, it has lost the confidence of the masses both inside the country and abroad..." https://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1940/xx/ww2.htm (Admittedly, once in exile Trotsky had an incentive to criticize almost everything Stalin did, so this is not proof that he would use the Red Army abroad less than Stalin. But there is no good reason to think he would have used it more.)

To get back to Stalin in a world with a non-Nazi Germany, the first thing to remember is that Germany would have remilitarized even without Hitler. The Allies had already agreed to the principle of military equality for Germany before Hitler came to power. Just what that meant was not entirely clear, but Schleicher was already planning to move toward universal conscription by creating a compulsory militia. The restrictions on the militarization of the Rhineland could also have been overcome without taking even the minimal risk of war Hitler took in OTL; see my post at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/qtvUxyKQ6hI/tVfsLI6cbMUJ

So a war with Germany will be far more dangerous for Stalin than even in OTL because the Germany of this ATL (which may be semi-military and somewhat authoritarian but not Nazi) will not only be remilitarized but will probably have much better relations with the Western Allies than the Nazis did. There might still be disagreements, but France and the UK (and, though it would presumably confine itself to economic aid) the US would not sit by idly if the USSR invaded Germany. I doubt that Stalin would want to challenge such a combination militarily.
 

Ryan

Donor
They were even more cautious historically.

True, but that was with nukes and the memories of the great Patriotic War.

However, I agree with your overall point that the Soviets wouldn't become warmongers trying to eat eastern Europe.
 
There would probably have been no war against the West, it went against Stalin's nature. There would likely have been a major conflict with Japan at some point in which the USSR, and possibly the Western powers, would have taken part.
 
The original policy under Stalin was to support revolution elsewhere. i.e: the pre Maoist Chinese Communists, or the Spanish Communists 1937-38. In most cases that failed. With the cessation of the Comintern support for Communist parties outside the USSR was much reduced, then gradually revived as the 'anti Facist War spun out. The imposition of Communist rule post 1945 was as much a opportunity dropping into Stalins lap as a any master plan. There are claims, with some evidence, Stalin intended to invade western Europe after 1953, but I've not seen any sort of written plan published or even a clear memo or directive.
 
There would probably have been no war against the West, it went against Stalin's nature. There would likely have been a major conflict with Japan at some point in which the USSR, and possibly the Western powers, would have taken part.

I do agree that a war between the Western powers and the USSR seems extremely likely at some point and that it won't be triggered by the Soviets invading Europe. Whether it starts in Japan, the Baltic states, or even Iran/Afghanistan it seems very likely that the USSR's expansionist tendencies will put them on a collision course with the West.
 
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