Derek Pullem
Donor
In this case it coiuld be argued that there are stron currents agains the butterfly effect
The Austrian victory at Wagram does not butterfly the above away because the outcome of this battle has no relationship with the above factors. Austria gains a few more years before facing an inevitable crisis that finally came in 1848
- German and Italian nationalism and moves towards the unification of these nations despite Austrian opposition as IOTL
- Severe Austrian economic problems due to he need to maintain a powerful and very expensive army to try to hold off the above
- You still have the same personalities in power such as Metternich, Charles X in France followed by Louis Phillipe.
- You are still going to get the 1846 Fiancial Crisis the Panic of 1847
- You are still therefore going to have the same factors resulting n the 1848 Revolutions
German nationalists didn't really expect unification to be done through a monarchy with only a fig leaf of constitutionalism (Prussia). If Austria wins at Wagram Metternich is probably butterflied away as Stadion is shown to be right and a less reactionary Austria is probable. Stadion is also a much better financial administrator than Metternich
There will always be a nationalities problem for Austria-Hungary but that would not necessarily mean they could not become the dominant German power. Certainly their economy would be much stronger without the reparations to France (the cause of the 1811 financial crisis) and the cost of the 1813 war ( the root of the 1816 devaluation). Belgium still probably gets its indepedence (but not including Luxemburg) and in return I suspect much of Prussia's Rhineland and Westphalian gains will go to Austria as compensation (less the original Prussia lands pre 1806)
If Prussia gets anything it's likely to be in Saxony as in OTL
Prussia without the Rhineland will struggle to modernise as it did in OTL - the eventual conflict between the two (and there will be one I agree) will be far more balanced than in our time line.
The 1846-1852 period will be an upheaval for all nations - it is here where Stadion's policies rather than Metternich's may improve the Austrian position. It may even be the case that Stadion's son will take a "Pitt the Younger" style role in Austria during this period to guide the nation to a more liberal position (akin to Prussia or slightly better)