If Napoleon had won at Wagram 1809

In this case it coiuld be argued that there are stron currents agains the butterfly effect

  1. German and Italian nationalism and moves towards the unification of these nations despite Austrian opposition as IOTL
  2. Severe Austrian economic problems due to he need to maintain a powerful and very expensive army to try to hold off the above
  3. You still have the same personalities in power such as Metternich, Charles X in France followed by Louis Phillipe.
  4. You are still going to get the 1846 Fiancial Crisis the Panic of 1847
  5. You are still therefore going to have the same factors resulting n the 1848 Revolutions
The Austrian victory at Wagram does not butterfly the above away because the outcome of this battle has no relationship with the above factors. Austria gains a few more years before facing an inevitable crisis that finally came in 1848

German nationalists didn't really expect unification to be done through a monarchy with only a fig leaf of constitutionalism (Prussia). If Austria wins at Wagram Metternich is probably butterflied away as Stadion is shown to be right and a less reactionary Austria is probable. Stadion is also a much better financial administrator than Metternich

There will always be a nationalities problem for Austria-Hungary but that would not necessarily mean they could not become the dominant German power. Certainly their economy would be much stronger without the reparations to France (the cause of the 1811 financial crisis) and the cost of the 1813 war ( the root of the 1816 devaluation). Belgium still probably gets its indepedence (but not including Luxemburg) and in return I suspect much of Prussia's Rhineland and Westphalian gains will go to Austria as compensation (less the original Prussia lands pre 1806)

If Prussia gets anything it's likely to be in Saxony as in OTL

Prussia without the Rhineland will struggle to modernise as it did in OTL - the eventual conflict between the two (and there will be one I agree) will be far more balanced than in our time line.

The 1846-1852 period will be an upheaval for all nations - it is here where Stadion's policies rather than Metternich's may improve the Austrian position. It may even be the case that Stadion's son will take a "Pitt the Younger" style role in Austria during this period to guide the nation to a more liberal position (akin to Prussia or slightly better)
 

Saphroneth

Banned
No reason WW1 cannot happen in this timeline ansd, for the sake of argument it can happen in 1914 with a Central Powers Alliance of Austria an Germany versus Russia However I did not say what either Britain or France do, nor did I say what started the war in this TTL

You just assumed it was the same. However this time it might be that France still sides with Russia but Britain sides with Germany/Austria against the old enemy, France. And maybe, in this timeline it is Poland, not Serbia that is the cause of the war.:D

Given that you're assuming that the whole thing kicks off in 1914 despite a PoD over a century earlier (and, I now see, have someone born six years after the PoD not only being born but having his original JOB), then I now assume that your answer to the thread question is "It would be exactly the same as OTL, except for some very small changes".
This is about as disregarding of the butterfly effect as having a PoD in 1901 and asking whether the Germany-Brazil semi final game would have a score of 6-1 or 8-0...
 
In this case it coiuld be argued that there are stron currents agains the butterfly effect

  1. German and Italian nationalism and moves towards the unification of these nations despite Austrian opposition as IOTL
  2. Severe Austrian economic problems due to he need to maintain a powerful and very expensive army to try to hold off the above
  3. You still have the same personalities in power such as Metternich, Charles X in France followed by Louis Phillipe.
  4. You are still going to get the 1846 Fiancial Crisis the Panic of 1847
  5. You are still therefore going to have the same factors resulting n the 1848 Revolutions
The Austrian victory at Wagram does not butterfly the above away because the outcome of this battle has no relationship with the above factors. Austria gains a few more years before facing an inevitable crisis that finally came in 1848

Nationalism was on the rise true, but it didn't have to happen at all like OTL
Not as severe as OTL but still hefty
Some of the same personalities
Yes
Yes

The 1848 revolutions would still happen

However you are arguing for OTL everything up to WW1
 
Given that you're assuming that the whole thing kicks off in 1914 despite a PoD over a century earlier (and, I now see, have someone born six years after the PoD not only being born but having his original JOB), then I now assume that your answer to the thread question is "It would be exactly the same as OTL, except for some very small changes".
This is about as disregarding of the butterfly effect as having a PoD in 1901 and asking whether the Germany-Brazil semi final game would have a score of 6-1 or 8-0...

eapons development does not stop in peacetime you kbnow. Dreyse is simply being paid by a different employer, a Bourbon rather than a Bonaparte!

Much can remain the same in this timeline. Under the restored Bourbon monarchy Louis XVIII will still be succeeded by the very reactionary Charles X. He will still provoke the 1830 July Revolution and be replaced by Louis Phillipe.

Metternich is still going to be a highly influential and reactionary politician on the European stage. His policies towards nationalist aspirations are going to be very similat, if not the same.

We are still going to see the same struggle between democrats/nationalists and the forces of conservatism. We still are going to have the Congress System during the first half of the 19th Century because the forces of Monarchical absolutism won the Napoleonicv Wars and are still going to react with repressive policies.

The only difference is that the Austria victory at Wagram led to the same result as the real Napoleonic Wars. It just happeed six years earlier and at Wagram instead of Waterloo.

It will have an effect on British politics. Welllesley may well not become the Dujke of Wellingto and does not rise to become Prime Minister (Tory) 1828 - 30. Another Tory, perhaps Lord Bathurst or Lord Lyndhurst gets the job instead. Still a reactionary Tory government in the early 1839s as IOTL bu some differnces in the senior post holders. Policies will likely be very similar if not the same. Wellesley can still be an MP in this government but, not having had the glittering military career he had IOL due to the end of the Napoleonic Wars probably won't be all that important. However, given the patronage of his brother Richard Wellesley I can still see Arthur doing quite well,but probably not rising to Cabinet level
 
How did Metternich come to a position of power?

Look it up.

In fact Metternich had a lot of influence with Johann Phillipe Stadion even before 1809 Actually Stadion and Metternich worked closely together before the start of the 1809 war.

Sooner or later Metternich would have replaced Stadion as he did. It is not unreasonable for this to happen in the late 1810s or eally 1820s. Stadion died in 1824 and the cghances are he will die around that date in TTL as well.

Stadion would very probably have followed the same policies that Metternich followed and would very likely have contnued his close association ewih Metternich. So Austrian senior ninisters might have been differet in terms of who held which posts but overall government policy would have been almos exactly the same if not he same as OTL.

In just the same way we would have had the same people in charge of France under the restored Bourbon monarchy, the same people in cghharge in Britain (apart from Wellington who will not have earned his great reputation although he will be respeced as the victor of Talavera which is still ging to be fought in TTL.

Prussia will recover the terriories lost in 1806 although they probably won't get Saxony which is most likey to go to Austria along with Bavaria. IOTL Bavaria came under strong Austrian influence after 1815 and the same will happen here. This will change if the Austro Prussian War still happpens with the same result. I see no reason fr this conflict to be butterflied away just becvause the Napoleonc Wars ended six years early in Napoleon's defeat. Austria still dominates Germany for forty or fifty years but my argument is hat this Austrian domination cannot last for various reasons and will be challenged by Prussia around the middle of the century. The Prussian challenge may very well be succesful against an Ausrtria that by this time will be in very consisderable political (fhghting Italian and German nationalism not to mention challenges within the empire from the Hungarians) and economic (the finacial costs of maintaining the larger army rewquired to hold the empire together and the need to fight constant small wars or mantauin large garissons to hold down increasingly restive populations) As Paul Kennedy showed in Rise and Fall of Great Powers empires in that position always decline and fall pretty quickly.

Austria would have had her last mment of glory n the first half of the 19th Century and would have had somewhat more prestige as the empire that defeated Napoleon but this wouuld not and could not have lasted much longer than it did IOTL. Austria would have faced the same challenges and would have coped no better being militarily, politically and economically overstretched. In some ways even more so than IOTL.
 
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