If Lynch Had Invaded

Operation Armageddon was drawn up by Jack Lynch's south Irish government in September of 1969 outlining the possibility of a tactical intervention in the North with the intent to protect Catholic communities that had been attacked during the preceding riots in August. In the end the plan was scrapped, largely due to two factors. First, that the Irish army had little more then 2,500 combat ready troops and an army of just 12,000 compared to a massive British opposition which was also a member of NATO and thus likely to call on the US among others to back them in the event of an invasion. Second, British troops had successfully been implanted in August to protect Nationalist communities and by October rioting had effectively been brought to an end.

What if, however, the British decision to intervene went terribly wrong? What if a we bloody Sunday three years earlier and a significant degree of fighting broke out immediately between nationalists and the British Army? Popular opinion was already on the side of invasion and a number of cabinet members supported the route. If the British government had failed in taking some semblance of control over the situation, the masses may have been too loud to ignore and an invasion could have occurred, the possibility is certainly feasible.

The image below gives an accurate round up of what the plans were for Operation Armageddon, as it was code-named:

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Essentially the Irish were to send a group of highly trained commandos to attack symbolic targets in Belfast without declaring war. Thus the likely assumption would be the IRA or some other nationalist militia was much more powerful then intelligence had suggested. The British army would move to secure the city, as a governmental collapse in Belfast would likely be the final straw before a full blown ethnic civil war. With the troops away from the border, the Irish would invade and occupy the Catholic territories in order to "protect them" though clearly they would have no intention of surrendering the territory back the Britain. The aftermath of this, in my opinion, would be a one of a few results.

1) Wilson acquiesces- Harold Wilson had always been a moderate to say the least on the North Irish issue. Shortly after the end of his first premiership he laid out an extensive plan on how to reunify Ireland. In other words, he was explicitly in favour of allow the island to be ruled by the Republic. With this in mind, the chance of his simply allowing the Republic to annex the Catholic border regions certainly exists. However, this bears several significant problems, namely Belfast, unionists, and the home front. Even with the major Catholic regions in the south such as Derry surrendered, a significant Catholic population remains in Belfast. This combines with the second unionist issue as they would be unhappy to say the least in surrendering any portion of the North. Extreme amounts of confusing violence would likely follow and the situation in the rest of the North not annexed would likely devolve into darker shades of anarchy. And this is all excluding the home front. The British people were already not perfectly pleased with Wilson and IOTL voted him out in 1970. Almost certainly a crisis such as the above would force an earlier election and just as certainly the Conservatives would campaign for intervention and odds are the Conservatives win.

2) Britain launches a limited counter-offensive- Wilson, realizing the political situation both in England and Ireland, launches a limited counter-offensive to reclaim captured territory while promising to pursue peace and stability. Most important to this is avoiding any overt "retaliation" and containing the conflict to one between Ireland and the UK. This to me seems the most likely result, however again we must factor in British public opinion and whether they would be content with a simple limited counter-offensive. Furthermore, the chances of stabilisation are extremely low. The IRA would launch doubtlessly an intensive guerrilla campaign to maintain Irish control of the Catholic regions and the most likely endgame here is a much more intense Troubles then what we experienced IOTL.

3) Full blown war- While Wilson is Prime Minister I see this as the least likely response, however it does exist as a possibility and if one of the above, especially possibility 1, are attempted and then Wilson is voted out, the likelihood exponentially increases. The idea of retaliatory strikes against Ireland would bear certainly the internationalisation of the conflict. Much of the end result here would rest on the US and the special-relationship with Britain would be put in jeopardy. The American public has a long history of solidarity with Ireland, partially due to its massive Irish-decent population and the popularity of Irish food, holidays, drinks, literature, music, and culture. This would put Nixon in a bind as to how to respond, but as NATO has sworn defense to Britain, respond he must. A lack of response would be a betrayal of the NATO agreements. The end result here I see much harder to predict.



So what is everyone else's opinion? And moreover, what effect would such a conflict have on Ireland, Britain, and the whole balance of international relations, with a fissure possibly being thrown between London and Washington? And how deadly could such a war be? I'd doubt there's any chance of a British land invasion of the South unless somehow Thatcher manages to get into power a decade premature. Still, what possibilities lie there? And finally what role does the Communist East play? If the US and NATO stand with Britain, Ireland would be permanently ostracized and may look to the East, or more likely the NAM, for alliance? Could another Anglo-Irish war have changed the entire future of the Cold War?

What are everyone's thoughts?
 
The commando attacks have limited success as their targets are already heavily fortified
The Irish army are completely defeated and forced over the border
Peace treaty signed
Ireland seen as the aggressor
More support for the UK
Troubles may end sooner with a earlier good Friday agreement
 
The outgunned and outnumbered Irish Defence Force is massacred by the British Army, there's a reason it was called 'Armageddon'. Afterwards Lynch resigns and the new Taoiseach negotiates a peace with the British. You probably have an even more chaotic troubles, especially if the IRA did try and launch the planned mini-Tet offensive which would accompany the invasion, an operation which would do far more damage than the invasion itself. Catholic communities already under attack would now be seen as hives of fifth columnists, possibly even officially in secret. Ireland, after launching an unprovoked attack against its peaceful neighbour, will be internationally shunned for quite a while, with far later admission into the EEC.
 
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The commando attacks have limited success as their targets are already heavily fortified
The Irish army are completely defeated and forced over the border
Peace treaty signed
Ireland seen as the aggressor
More support for the UK
Troubles may end sooner with a earlier good Friday agreement

I disagree especially with the final point. This would have added significantly more fuel to the fire and the possibility of reprisals on an unofficial basis by British troops or, more likely, unionists is extremely high. This would have added a significant amount of fuel to an already burning fire, making full blown ethnic civil war, imo, even more likely and possibly leading to a spiral of reprisals where the IRA potentially removes its officially non-sectarian rhetoric and attacks civilians, a practice already common among unionist paramilitaries (the IRA tended to focus more on killing officials and bombing targets whereas the unionists throughout the Troubles had a stronger tradition of reprisal killings of civilians such as the Loughisland massacre with Kingsmill being the exception not the rule.)
 
Ethnic? You mean religious
Also the IRA killed far more civilians than the unionists anyway see the pub bombings etc

With Ireland out the way a massive support area for the IRA goes out the window and they may not be able to continue for as long as they did
(maybe the agreement is bought forward a year or two)

But yes it was called armegedon for a reason as it would have back fired on te Irish republic spectacualry
 
Chances are if Lynch had been crazy enough to order an invasion the Irish Army would have staged its own version of The Curragh Mutniny and refused to march on Ulster.
 
Chances are if Lynch had been crazy enough to order an invasion the Irish Army would have staged its own version of The Curragh Mutniny and refused to march on Ulster.

I disagree with the assertion that there was some sort of unanimous understood opposition to this idea. At least 2 cabinet members actively supported it, along with, many historian suggest,the majority of the Irish people. I doubt somehow the military was to be less nationalistic than the general population.
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
Chances are if Lynch had been crazy enough to order an invasion the Irish Army would have staged its own version of The Curragh Mutniny and refused to march on Ulster.

This. Hopefully.

Even if the Irish Defence Forces could be deployed in their entirety the British would rapidly (and easily) rout them.
Blockade, international isolation, economic and political collapse inevitably follow.

Not so much Operation Armageddon as Operation FUBAR.
There's a world of difference between tub-thumping rhetoric from a safe vantage and carrying out such a piss-poor plan in the face of the existential threat it would provoke.

If you must have the Government of the Republic making matters worse it would be far more plausible to have greater covert support for the Provisionals.
Even that requires straining credibility to breaking point without an early POD and subsequent social changes. IMHO.

Falkenburg
 
@Falkenburg Do you really believe the US would so rapidly turn on Ireland? IMO popular American opinion would almost certainly be on the side of the Irish as it consistently has been for the last 100 years. Moreover, the East would likely celebrate Ireland and they'd have friends in Yugoslavia and the NAM not to mention, if they were pushed, the real east.

Furthermore I think it is worth pointing out that Ireland had the moral imperative on their side, especially had a Bloody Sunday like event occurred a few years earlier and launched more intense combat between nationalists and the military.
 
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I disagree with the assertion that there was some sort of unanimous understood opposition to this idea. At least 2 cabinet members actively supported it, along with, many historian suggest,the majority of the Irish people. I doubt somehow the military was to be less nationalistic than the general population.

It doesn't really matter how nationalistic the defence forces are. The plan would effectively require them to be either suicidal or to have absolutely no clue about the military realities of the operation. As you note in the OP Ireland was tremendously outmatched - a relative handful of troops ready for combat, no modern armour, no modern aircraft, no modern artillery. Over the border they were facing about as many British soldiers as the Irish army had combat ready troops, backed by modern APCs and with a rather distinct possibility of Ireland's half a dozen old Vampires being swatted aside by Britain's Phantoms and Harriers if they even dared take off. If Britain made even the slightest attempt to defend or counterattack it would turn into a massacre for the Irish Defence Force (which probably will need a new name having just launched their first ever military action in the form of an invasion), and having just launched an invasion of a friendly, powerful, NATO-member neighbour in violation of international law they could hardly anticipate any held from abroad. I honestly don't think the Defence Forces officers would be stupid enough to go along with it if they were told to do it
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
@Falkenburg Do you really believe the US would so rapidly turn on Ireland? IMO popular American opinion would almost certainly be on the side of the Irish as it consistently has been for the last 100 years. Moreover, the East would likely celebrate Ireland and they'd have friends in Yugoslavia and the NAM not to mention, if they were pushed, the real east.

Furthermore I think it is worth pointing out that Ireland had the moral imperative on their side, especially had a Bloody Sunday like event occurred a few years earlier and launched more intense combat between nationalists and the military.

The US need only deplore the illegal actions of the Irish Government.
Launching Armageddon without an overwhelming argument in its favour (Former Yugolsavia levels of ethnic cleansing) would destroy the reflexive sympathy Ireland has generally enjoyed.

Bombay Street style attacks upon the Nationalist community, or an earlier (and worse) Bloody Sunday, simply aren't justification enough, by themselves.

Supposing the Republic is daft enough to press ahead regardless, if support were to come from the Eastern Bloc (or even the NAM) that would only solidify American opprobrium.

Beyond being militarily insane, running with Armageddon is politically and economically suicidal.

Falkenburg
 

libbrit

Banned
There is a TV show of this scenario done by RTE, if you can find it.

Lets just say things dont end well for Ireland militarilly or diplomatically-they have crossed an inter ational border with force. They have in other words committed an act of war and have caused the event that will cause Britain to invoke Article 4 of NATO. NATO will have no choice but to intervene (if Britain even needs the help) on Britains behalf or else critically undermine the credability of the alliance in the eyes of the Soviets
 
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I'm guessing even if the order was given the Irish Defence Forces might find a reason to "delay" anything until new orders come through. As for calling in NATO, I don't see it a) because the UK doesn't need any help taking out the Irish Forces and b) because it might mean long term International involvement in the North.

From memory the Irish army needed to borrow private buses to move up to the border when the situation worsened, they had at best FN Fals and the FN MAGs with some 25 pounders and maybe 1-3 Comets with broken down engines and most likely no Ammo (Apparently they were used as bulldozers in the Curragh). Less than a dozen Alouette helicopters and some Vampires, and 3 Flowers that only a couple of years from falling apart. There would also be a deployment in Cyprus, I don't know how many forces that included.

The UK wouldn't need to invade the South to win, the gulf of difference means that strikes from the UK will be able to handle the Republic.

The Irish military and Government would be painfully aware of the ridiculous situation that they would be courting in this, and other than a paper exercise this was never going to be implemented.

Ireland was still Anti Communist, I can't see them looking at the Soviets, though I can't imagine this going ahead anyway.
 
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I'm guessing even if the order was given the Irish Defence Forces might find a reason to "delay" anything until new orders come through. As for calling in NATO, I don't see it a) because the UK doesn't need any help taking out the Irish Forces and b) because it might mean long term International involvement in the North.

A threatened NATO involvement might be a useful means to force an Irish retreat without actual fighting but that depends on whether the British are feeling magnanimous or not. I wouldn't bet on it. More likely NATO support will be diplomatic, it will possibly even extend to taking on some British obligations in Germany while the British Army redeploys units to Ulster.

The war will last as long as it takes the British to make their point. As others have said. The Irish can't win. In fact the mismatch is so great that even if Lynch orders an invasion there is a distinct possibility of it not taking place as the Irish Army refuses to invade. Not because they aren't nationalistic but because they aren't suicidal.
 
A threatened NATO involvement might be a useful means to force an Irish retreat without actual fighting but that depends on whether the British are feeling magnanimous or not. I wouldn't bet on it. More likely NATO support will be diplomatic, it will possibly even extend to taking on some British obligations in Germany while the British Army redeploys units to Ulster.

The war will last as long as it takes the British to make their point. As others have said. The Irish can't win. In fact the mismatch is so great that even if Lynch orders an invasion there is a distinct possibility of it not taking place as the Irish Army refuses to invade. Not because they aren't nationalistic but because they aren't suicidal.

That's pretty much what I said in the post, the Military would stall and most likely somebody would leak it and the repercussions that would happen, in order to avoid even starting a war with the UK.

As to redeploying, I'm guessing what ever scratch forces and aircraft in the UK itself would be able to handle things. The Irish Forces at the time were never going to be in a position to trouble the UK. And the fact is that even with such a paper plan everyone knew that this was never a runner.
 
From everything I've heard about it this was not what the Irish Army would actually do.

It was a blatent hint to the government that military intervention would end very badly for Ireland.

If the cabinet decided to go through with it the army would IMO refuse or tear up the plan and make a more realistic version.
 
From everything I've heard about it this was not what the Irish Army would actually do.

It was a blatent hint to the government that military intervention would end very badly for Ireland.

If the cabinet decided to go through with it the army would IMO refuse or tear up the plan and make a more realistic version.

I could certainly see them coming up with the worst case situation and emphasising the disaster it would be for the Republic in order to dissuade the Government from any adventures.
 
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