If Lynch had Invaded: Operation Armageddon

Vladimir

Banned
During the Battle of the Bogside in 1969 (one of many Catholic-Protestant riots in Northern Ireland), the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) of Ireland, Jack Lynch, made a televised address, where he said that his country could no longer stand by and watch as innocents were hurt "or worse."

Unbelievable as it sounds, Lynch actually ordered General Sean Mac Eoin, Chief of Staff of the Irish Army, to plan for possible intervention in Northern Ireland to protect the Catholic minority there. The Irish general staff came up with a plan codenamed "Exercise Armageddon," which was declassified in 2004, for military intervention in Northern Ireland.

Specially-trained Irish commandos would infiltrate Northern Ireland and launch guerilla-style attacks on Belfast airport, the Belfast docks, the BBC studios and key industries. The campaign would be centered in the northwest, which would draw security forces away from the south, where the rioting was taking place. The Irish Army would then invade with four brigades operating in company-strength units and occupy the Catholic areas of Derry and Newry, while Irish armor conducted lightning strikes on security forces in the area. Irish forces would then dig in for a protracted defense against British encirclement.

The planners stated that any military option would be unsound, and that Ireland would be exposed to punitive retaliatory action by British forces. The 2009 RTE documentary "If Lynch had Invaded" predicts that the Irish would have been shredded on the battlefield.

So what do you think would have happened? How would events have transpired if Lynch had ordered Operation Armageddon launched? What would be the military, political, and economic implications?
 

Pangur

Donor
This has been covered before. In a nut shell thew south would not have a hope in hades. The Irish army knew that and perhaps hence the name for the operation. I do remember talk about this as a kid and what I was told hs that it was Charles Haughey as minister helped stop it by pointing out what it would cost
 
Unlikely..

Wouldn't this force NATO to invoke its collective defense clause?

No more than it did when Greece and Turkey went to war in the mid-70s. What you would have seen is a very active American diplomatic effort to stop the fighting - the Nixon Administration would have been heavily involved in pressuring the Irish Government to pull back and the British Government not to be too punitive in its response.

Nixon would probably have sent Rogers to Dublin and London to broker a deal which might have pre-empted the later Sunningdale meetings between the British Government and the IRA. Essentailly, Lynch would have agreed to a ceasefire and a pull-back contingent on a roundtable meeting, chaired by an American (Kissinger ?) and involving all sides.
 
It was called Operation Armageddon for a reason. It would have been the end of the Irish government at that time had they been crazy enough to do it.
 
Funnily enough my very first post on this forum was exactly a year ago on this very topic! :p

As said above, the Irish Army knew a direct invasion was suicidal, it was mainly a group of hardliners in the Irish Cabinet who wanted to invade seeing it as a chance to settle "the unfinished national business." I think Lynch also knew it was pointless and in the end the proposal was to send an unarmed field hospital unit across the border to treat casualties of the riots.

I doubt that there was any serious chance of Armageddon being implemented, had Lynch taken leave of his senses or had a more hardline Republican like Neil Blaney somehow have been Taoiseach then I suspect that the Irish Army would have staged it's own version of The Curragh Mutiny and refused to march on Ulster.
 
It would have been suicidal on the part of the Irish to do this, and the Irish Army at least knew this. Not only could the UK wipe out the entire Irish defence forces without significantly decreasing their commitments elsewhere around the globe, such an invasion would have been covered by the North Atlantic Treaty, although I suspect NATO involvement would have been limited to logistical and diplomatic support (I can see the American Ambassador going to the Irish government and asking them what the fuck they think they're doing and that they should withdraw NOW - using that sort of language)
 
Other than beating the hell out of the Irish Army in NI itself, what would the British response have been?

Limited, probably. You're probably not going to see anything like major strikes either from the air or land into Eire. There are already more British troops in Ulster than Irish troops in Ireland and they're better equiped on a man per man basis. A large portion of the Irish Army at this time was still being issued good old No.4 .303 Enfields. Most likley the Irish troops, if they choose to hold their ground near the border are quickly surrounded by a superior force of Infantry and light armour with retreat across the border their only option. If they they continue to stick then the British call in limited fast air in a show of force before sending in the troops to finish them off. However, I suspect that even in such an extreme situation, the cooler heads amongst the Irish officer would prevail and pull back across the border. The British are not going to pursue them into Eire. Westminster, knowing the stakes in Ulster and opinions in the U.S. are not going to try and blow the situation any further out of proportion.

Russell
 
Wouldn't this force NATO to invoke its collective defense clause?
No. No more than the attack on the USS Liberty or the attack on USCG Station Lampedusa....or the Falklands.

While the US Government might be willing to stop the war, there would no doubt be elements that want to aid the Republic of Ireland. There may also be a few anti-Catholic groups who might want to aid the Brits...
 
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