If Kerry won in 2004, who'd be his Republican challenger in 2008?

Thande

Donor
American politics WI, ready the bunkers!

Seriously, though, who? Would any of the Republican candidates this year in OTL, especially McCain, stand against Kerry in 2008?
 
I would think it'd still be McCain. I wonder if we would still be having this colossal clusterfuck which is the global economy at the moment if Kerry had been in charge since '04?
 

Philip

Donor
Without Bush in office, I don't think McCain's not-your-regular-Republicanism plays as well. If Kerry's term goes moderately well or better, I'm not sure who would seek the Republican nomination. Certainly McCain. Probably not Romney. If the economy goes south earlier, then I could see Romney running and winning. If Kerry is a complete mess, I'd expect to see more of the younger Republicans like Pawlenty running for the nomination.
 
Giuliani

IMVHO

Second term-seekers often attract the more well-known, but less hopeful, against them - Mondale in 84, Dole in 96 etc

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Mccain still stands a decent chance. The Republican primaries will never be kind to Giuliani unless he changes his position on abortion.

None of the scandals that knocked out the more likely Republican nominees is going to go away with handwaving, except maybe George Allen in Virginia. His revolved around a poor choice of words. If he can avoid that, he's just the kind of person Republicans like to vote for.
His chances of securing the nomination improve if Kerry can effectively transform America from the loud drunk at the party to the jovial drunk at the party (foreign policy metaphor, donchaknow.)

The financial crisis is on track. Given simple butterflies we might pick up on it sooner, but nobody resorts to drastic measures (usually) until after the crisis begins. And I don't see it beginning soon enough to affect the primaries, so the GOP nominee will be picked on other criteria, probably social policy (as usual) and that means I'm going to bet my money on George Allen.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
It depends on how Kerry does during his term. If there is another terrorist attack on the U.S. (unless it happens so shortly after the election that the blame falls on Bush), then McCain or Giuliani would fight it out during the primary on national security grounds. If the economy tanks earlier than it did IOTL, then Romney would have a better chance.

If Kerry turns out to be a wonderful President (captures Bin Laden, does well in Iraq, expertly manages the economy), than the Republicans would be so upset that the base would be all riled up and we'd end up with Huckabee or some other Religious Right candidate, whom Kerry would easily beat.
 

Jasen777

Donor
It really depends on how things have gone for Kerry and how beatable he looks. Limiting it to OTL candidates, I'd give the advantage to Romney, he had campaigned years ahead of time and had good organizations in the early primaries. Without Bush dragging the party down, maverick McCain is going to have less appeal and the base is going to have even less reason to support pro-choice Giuliani.

Of course, there's likely to be diffrent people in the race who we can't really predict.
 
In a general sense, democrats are known for a more inflationary fiscal policy. As a result, current the financial crisis gets butterflied forward by perhaps a year. I would assume there would be no additional terrorist attacks, as in OTL. While he might not be a great hero, I will assume Kerry will be respected enough to be supported to run for another term.

The elections of 2006 were very much driven by a backlash against Bush and his response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Without the backlash, the democrats might not control the senate today. If lucky, they would have a small majority in the house.

Both McCain and Giuliani would be at a disadvantage because they could not play Kerry as weaker on terror. I would expect Mitt Romney would come out on top as the Wall Street conservative, choosing a strong Christian for vice president.
 
I'm not seeing Romney as the nominee against Kerry.

Massachusetts politics writ large? A Republican party bent on demonizing that state in particular? Romney felt the sting of that propaganda four years after Kerry lost IOTL, how is he going to survive four years of negative spin about his political homeland? I don't think the conservative base is ever going to trust him.

Question: If the financial crisis is bumped forward a year, what's it likely to look like going into election season? Light at the end of the tunnel or murkmurkmurk? Or is it over?

If things are bleak, we might easily see a candidate with a very radical taxation policy take the stage, a Huckabee perhaps. Or have the costs of goods gone up so much that the Fair Tax looks like anything but?

With a financial crisis on, Mccain might still be able to take the nomination in one of his more moderate aspects than the visage we see today. The Mccain of TTL runs with Lieberman and operates a more moderate fiscal policy and pulls in the Reagan democrats and then some. Any state with an open primary goes heavily for him.

Actually come to think of it, with Kerry in the White House it might be much more likely to have a third party seriously throw its hat in. Kerry keeps the liberal base and fights for the moderates with Mccain, who takes the lion's share of moderate voters, and the libertarians/small gov't/fiscal responsibility crowd. Huckabee (or someone) takes the religious right and the neocons.
Kerry probably wins this one. Huckabee (or whoever) definitely loses.
 
Actually come to think of it, with Kerry in the White House it might be much more likely to have a third party seriously throw its hat in. Kerry keeps the liberal base and fights for the moderates with Mccain, who takes the lion's share of moderate voters, and the libertarians/small gov't/fiscal responsibility crowd. Huckabee (or someone) takes the religious right and the neocons.
Kerry probably wins this one. Huckabee (or whoever) definitely loses.

Wha...?

For all of those who think the RR would distance themselves from the GOP, when have conservatives ever left the GOP in significant numbers to form a third party?

I think McCain or Huckabee would be pretty likely, and even Romney might do better with economic butterflies.
 
Wha...?

For all of those who think the RR would distance themselves from the GOP, when have conservatives ever left the GOP in significant numbers to form a third party?

I think McCain or Huckabee would be pretty likely, and even Romney might do better with economic butterflies.

Well they haven't exactly been in the party long enough to worry about it.

However they did spend the late 50s and early 60s voting in high numbers for third party candidates in the South. When they finally joined the Republican party it was after a fairly long time in the wilderness not trusting either party.
They were a growing undercurrent in the GOP until the 90s when they made their power play with the Neocons. These days they get very intolerant of a candidate who doesn't tow their line.

If a more moderate Mccain or a Giuliani or a Romney gets in there and doesn't come out weaping about abortion, they're very likely to be upset. Upset enough to bolt? I think so. If the Democrats are still in the ascendant, that makes it even more likely.

What would keep the Religious Right from bolting is if they can't find a candidate, not a lack of will to bolt.

This is why I say George Allen. He fits the Republican profile best and his scandal is pretty easily butterflied away. He keeps the party together by running from the Right, and he can pick one of the more moderate types as a VP to show he's not a demagogue.
 

ninebucks

Banned
McCain is far too similar to Kerry, I don't think he'd stand a chance in such a situation.

Rudy Giulliani is also out of the picture. This primaries season has proved that people don't really like him, for a while there was an inverse relationship between how active his PR was in a state, and how popular he became in that state. I just don't think he has it in him.

In my own, so humble its worthless, opinion, the GOP would quite probably pick someone outrageously right wing. The kind of person that a European would be driven mad by.
 
McCain is far too similar to Kerry, I don't think he'd stand a chance in such a situation.

Rudy Giulliani is also out of the picture. This primaries season has proved that people don't really like him, for a while there was an inverse relationship between how active his PR was in a state, and how popular he became in that state. I just don't think he has it in him.

In my own, so humble its worthless, opinion, the GOP would quite probably pick someone outrageously right wing. The kind of person that a European would be driven mad by.

I think if anything the last ten years or so have proven that Mccain is willing to be pretty malleable to make it to the top. He needn't be all that much like Kerry.

Agree with you on Giuliani though.

Does anyone think that Jeb Bush would be willing to throw his hat in it as soon as 2008? It's probably too soon for the public to stomach another Bush, but we would've had a four year gap and if no other viable right-wing candidate emerges...?
 
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