Well, like in other topics concerning Japan, some peoples are going to great lengths to argue that alternate history is not possible...on alternatehistory.com.
Anyway, just to quickly adress few things:
At Coral sea he commited 2 vs 4 (or even 5 again), as the japanese were believe to have in addition to Shokaku and Zuikaku the mythical "Ryukaku", and possibly Kaga, plus the Kasuga maru.
To reply to Tomo's well informed arguments:
But really, a better result at Coral sea means either the scout who mistaken an oiler for a carrier opens his bloody eyes, in which case a full 78 plane strike is sent against Fletcher before noon on the 7th once the accurate floatplane reports are in (Furutaka's i think?), probably resulting in both US carriers crippled if not outright sunk (with Cardiv 5 undetected and intact, with serious but bearable plane losses, i expect about 25-30 in all), or Hara does not send the disastruous evening strike, so he has more planes on the 8th, which might result in Yorktown being crippled as well, and of course more japanese planes surviving.
So at Midway, it may well be 2 vs 5, so baring and even more outlandish miracle, the two US CVs are summarily clubbered by Nagumo even if one or two japanese CVs are hit.
As to Guadalcanal, unlikely to happen now indeed, but if the americans still have 3 carriers (Saratoga, repaired Yorktown and Wasp) and believe they caused more damage to the japanese than they really did (like thinking they sunk "two" big carriers at Coral sea and "two" at Midway), they might still commit (in OTL initial plan called for just 2 CVs to support the invasion), but they would be in even more trouble than in OTL facing 4 or 5 IJN fleet CVs plus the smaller ones, it is probably the americans who would call Guadalcanal "the island of hunger" and will be forced to evacuate it after losing most of their surface fleet.
This bringing me top something i wondered, if the japanese win the battle of Guadalcanal relatively early, what happens in New Guinea afterwards, the japanese being able to commit their full effort there then, both manpower as well aircraft and shipping?
Anyway, just to quickly adress few things:
Simply not true, a myth that keeps being perpetuated despite accurate information being available. Nimitz commited TF16 (this is why they left port on the 28th) before he knew for certin Yorktown could be used, when he knew Saratoga would be nowhere near Midway before the second week of June (due to leave the continent on 4th iirc, but left in a hurry on 1st, and was way too late for anything), and when he was certain Zuikaku would participate. So he was commiting 2 vs 5.No it won't. Under those circumstances Nimitz will not fight a battle at Midway. He'll hold back for when the USN can match or surpass the IJN.
At Coral sea he commited 2 vs 4 (or even 5 again), as the japanese were believe to have in addition to Shokaku and Zuikaku the mythical "Ryukaku", and possibly Kaga, plus the Kasuga maru.
To reply to Tomo's well informed arguments:
Well, at Coral sea what radar would have helped with is stacking the CAP and perhaps maybe helping Shokaku to try to hide under a squall or something thus avoiding the SBDs, but it seem unlikely, however perhaps better stacked CAP would prevents Aults third hit (there were only couple of SBDs attacking), so at least it's less damaged. Radar can't really save Shoho except in the unlikley event it somehow alters course when detecting the american strike and is not seen.Whoops, I've forgoten the radar
Radar might've helped the IJN actually win the Battle of the Coral Sea, leaving them, say, with one fully operative carrier vs. USN loosing one as per OTL, plus have other sustaining major damage, thus preventing it to take part at Midway. Thus Midway sees 5 IJN carriers vs. 2 USN, and after Midway battle both Japanese and USA sustaining a single CV lost each, plus one damaged for each side. Op Watchtower (Guadalcanal) never happens?
But really, a better result at Coral sea means either the scout who mistaken an oiler for a carrier opens his bloody eyes, in which case a full 78 plane strike is sent against Fletcher before noon on the 7th once the accurate floatplane reports are in (Furutaka's i think?), probably resulting in both US carriers crippled if not outright sunk (with Cardiv 5 undetected and intact, with serious but bearable plane losses, i expect about 25-30 in all), or Hara does not send the disastruous evening strike, so he has more planes on the 8th, which might result in Yorktown being crippled as well, and of course more japanese planes surviving.
So at Midway, it may well be 2 vs 5, so baring and even more outlandish miracle, the two US CVs are summarily clubbered by Nagumo even if one or two japanese CVs are hit.
As to Guadalcanal, unlikely to happen now indeed, but if the americans still have 3 carriers (Saratoga, repaired Yorktown and Wasp) and believe they caused more damage to the japanese than they really did (like thinking they sunk "two" big carriers at Coral sea and "two" at Midway), they might still commit (in OTL initial plan called for just 2 CVs to support the invasion), but they would be in even more trouble than in OTL facing 4 or 5 IJN fleet CVs plus the smaller ones, it is probably the americans who would call Guadalcanal "the island of hunger" and will be forced to evacuate it after losing most of their surface fleet.
This bringing me top something i wondered, if the japanese win the battle of Guadalcanal relatively early, what happens in New Guinea afterwards, the japanese being able to commit their full effort there then, both manpower as well aircraft and shipping?
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