If Japan had his better weapons a year earlier

Japan maybe inflicts a few 100 more casualties on U.S. aircrew, but not much else. Unless you also mean to introduce kamikaze a year sooner...:eek:

Japan's problems are, as noted, resources, but also organizational. IJN needed a dedicated ASW command, & not just one year sooner. That said, introducing the Mikuras in 1941 (& then actually building more than a couple of dozen:rolleyes:) could have hurt the USN Sub Force efforts against Japan's trade: not enough to alter the outcome, but enough to cost a couple or so subs. (I wouldn't want to try & pick which ones...but I'd dread it being Wahoo or something.)
 
If US economic power is 100 during the Pacific war, Japanese is aound 20. Simply, better weapons a year earlier won't make much difference. Plus the Japanese economy wasn't "balanced" The Japanese had focused on building up certain what regarded as key industries, leaving huge areas under developed. Then you have to throw on top of that huge organizational issues, inter service rivalry that makes the USN and US army look like Romeo and Juliet, a simple failure to grasp the importance of things such as ASW, damage control, radar, heavy artillery, the list goes on. The Japanese did stunningly well ITOL, getting them to do better is truly formidable.
 
... i would add something else: radar. IJN got radars in use on their CVs starting with Eastern Solomons, have it earlier (according to this TL, even before Pearl Harbour) and at least they get enough warning to stack up the Zeros to face the high altitude SBDs. One single bomb hit less (Best's on Akagi) and the entire strategic situation in Pacific dramatically changes. I play this as Yorktown is killed by the 11.00 Akagi and Hiryu's strike, second strike at 13.30 goes for TF16, which might damage or sink one or both of Spruance's carriers. IJN could reverse the 10.25 disaster and win a tactical victory by forcing the remnants of TF16 away from the area. It doesn't matter if they manage to invade Midway or not, Akagi, Hiryu or both surviving dramatically changes everything in the near term.

Whoops, I've forgoten the radar :)
Radar might've helped the IJN actually win the Battle of the Coral Sea, leaving them, say, with one fully operative carrier vs. USN loosing one as per OTL, plus have other sustaining major damage, thus preventing it to take part at Midway. Thus Midway sees 5 IJN carriers vs. 2 USN, and after Midway battle both Japanese and USA sustaining a single CV lost each, plus one damaged for each side. Op Watchtower (Guadalcanal) never happens?


Let's have a look at some other possibilities: the D4Y and B6N entered full service and combat in autumn 1943, i am sure some of you are aware why, but if the problems are fixed earlier, per this ATL they start entering service in late 1942. The B6N is a very fast torpecker, while the D4Y is faster than the F4F by a wide margin! Facing these machines in any numbers in late 1942 and 1943 will give the americans major headaches, especially if flown by the still fairly numerous well trained aviators. Even if flown by novices, their higher performance alone increases the pilots chances of survival by that much, and same goes for fighters, you can bet a novice has a higher chance of surviving in an A7M or N1K2-J rather than an A6M!

With scenario from above, the Japanese enjoy 6:2 (7:2?) advantage in fleet carriers in 1943, coupled with aircraft from 1944 per this thread?

I honestly don't see this mattering much at all. Even if we assume that the Japanese put the spurs to their weapon development, the US is not going to sit idly by. Odds are, they're going to figure out the carrier handling issues of the F4U, and get them out to the fleet ASAP. While simultaneously accelerating the development of the F6F and F8F. This might add six months to the war, but I think it still ends with Japan getting crushed

Development of the F6F was accelerated already in OTL, being one of fastest in the ww2. F8F was with problems with wings at high G, even more problems with accelerated design phase? Granted, the whole 'one year of advantage' theme puts 'another' side at major advantage.
Tricky thing might be the major numerical disadvantage for the USN with succesuve carrier battles ending up in Japanese favor.
 

Archibald

Banned
I wonder if Japan would have moved a year earlier.

Perhaps they could have moved as soon as they occupied French Indochina. Japan will eventually lose but if they had their carriers ready earlier and they moved earlier they would have had a longer period of near parity before American reinforcements come online during which it could have an advantage.

Japan is hopeless, bar ASB ICBMs given to them...
 
America could drown Japan in Wildcats and Yorktown's if they had to. If the war goes on long enough the USN will be rolling out all 32 Essex class carriers plus additional Midway class vessels.
 
And of course that familiar drumbeat of the Japanese "What if."

"Okay what if this, but where you getting the resources to build it?"

And thats the crux of the matter. To use a meme "Can't build weapons if ya aint got no steel an' oil.'" And to go "Okay they get 4 Unryu Carriers in late 43." Its then a case of what did they sacrifice to get these ships? What artillery, what subs, what tanks, what guns, what planes? Why did the army and Airforce agree to this? And so on. Japan can't fart out steel like the US could. Its got to come from somewhere and to build something, its at the cost of something else.

And this is probably the biggest restriction you can imagine. Most of what the Italians or Germans did were basically misallocation and misapplication of resources, while Japan literally did not have enough to pursue a war with the ABCD forces.
 
And this is probably the biggest restriction you can imagine. Most of what the Italians or Germans did were basically misallocation and misapplication of resources, while Japan literally did not have enough to pursue a war with the ABCD forces.

And the resources is half the problem. This premise of them building stuff early, recognising flaws in their military that could not be solved by Yamato Damashi (Japanese Fighting Spirit) etc requires that simply ASB thing in Imperial Japan. For their military leaders to be rational. Something that they were pretty much incapable of being from 41 to 45.
 
And the resources is half the problem. This premise of them building stuff early, recognising flaws in their military that could not be solved by Yamato Damashi (Japanese Fighting Spirit) etc requires that simply ASB thing in Imperial Japan. For their military leaders to be rational. Something that they were pretty much incapable of being from 41 to 45.
Even that half is because they tried to make up for their lack of resources with "spirit mobilization". In other words, the supposed ignorance of irrationality that people imagine for the Japanese forces were "rational" in that it's the logical conclusion of an extremely resource-deficient country.
 
And the resources is half the problem.

The other half is the lack of manufacturing capacity. Hitler was able to take Czech and French factories not to mention those in Holland, Belgium, Denmark, etc. Japan couldn't do that as there wasn't anything to take. So even if there are better things to build you don't have the resources or factory space to do much with them...
 
That's also a limit on Japan's strategic aims. She's limited in how many shipyards, & slipways, she can build, even presuming she has enough steel (which she doesn't). Much of her yard capacity is (must be) occupied by replacing merchantmen, so she's constrained on how much new capacity she can introduce. That means, even if nothing else changes, if she expands her perimeter past a certain point, she will be unable to maintain it, for simple lack of hulls...
 

Deleted member 9338

If Japan invades FIC in Sep. 1939 instead of 1940 it would be interesting to see how France reacts, as they have just declared war on Germany.

However, move the Japanese invasion of FIC to earlier in 1939, say to spring 1939, then we may see France send a significant naval force.

Now this would be an interesting thought experiment or gaming sceanario.
 
If Japan actually invades FIC in 1939 it will cost them more than they gain by moving it up. OTL they "occupied" it, basically a bloodless affair. An invasion will cost men and equipment. It will also put a scare in to the British and the Dutch, some more equipment may be sent as well as troops. This will mean more effort for the Japanese when they finally go for these areas. In any case the biggest gain in FIC was rice, some other stuff yes, but the real needs of Japan for oil and other materials in DEI/SEA were in British and Dutch colonies.
 
If Japan actually invades FIC in 1939 it will cost them more than they gain by moving it up. OTL they "occupied" it, basically a bloodless affair.
And the only reason they thought they could get away with even that much was because France had collapsed. (Offhand, IDK if Vichy played a role.) Without that, Japan likely doesn't act.

So, if you get a France Fights On scenario, you may have effectively butterflied away the Pacific War.:cool::cool:
 

SsgtC

Banned
Vichy did play a role, but only indirectly. When they declared war on the UK, it gave the Japanese the diplomatic cover they needed to get away with invading FIC. They basically said that they were simply aiding their ally by removing a source of supplies and reinforcements from Vichy France. While also, completely coincidentally, giving them access to airfields to assist with their war in China. It was a complete load of bull. And nobody bought it. But it was bull with just enough plausibility in it that Japan was able to get away with it.


And the only reason they thought they could get away with even that much was because France had collapsed. (Offhand, IDK if Vichy played a role.) Without that, Japan likely doesn't act.

So, if you get a France Fights On scenario, you may have effectively butterflied away the Pacific War.:cool::cool:
 
Thus Midway sees 5 IJN carriers vs. 2 USN, and after Midway battle both Japanese and USA sustaining a single CV lost each, plus one damaged for each side. Op Watchtower (Guadalcanal) never happens?

No it won't. Under those circumstances Nimitz will not fight a battle at Midway. He'll hold back for when the USN can match or surpass the IJN.
 
No it won't. Under those circumstances Nimitz will not fight a battle at Midway. He'll hold back for when the USN can match or surpass the IJN.

Even if that means Australia is cut off the USA for a year or more, since IJN/IJA is operating from Guadalcanal ?
 
Even if that means Australia is cut off the USA for a year or more, since IJN/IJA is operating from Guadalcanal ?

Yes.

The cold-blooded reality is that if the Allies can't beat Japan at sea then they can afford to wait.

I was mostly addressing the Midway bit though.
 
Even if that means Australia is cut off the USA for a year or more, since IJN/IJA is operating from Guadalcanal ?
Japan's only hope is if the Americans and British are stupid enough to constantly feed Kido Butai piecemeal squadrons as they finish construction before sufficient force is concentrated to oppose the Japanese.

Yes it's not good news that Japan are in Guadalcanal but their presence doesn't make it possible to invade Australia. Britain/USA needs time and they will take it.
 

nbcman

Donor
Vichy did play a role, but only indirectly. When they declared war on the UK, it gave the Japanese the diplomatic cover they needed to get away with invading FIC. They basically said that they were simply aiding their ally by removing a source of supplies and reinforcements from Vichy France. While also, completely coincidentally, giving them access to airfields to assist with their war in China. It was a complete load of bull. And nobody bought it. But it was bull with just enough plausibility in it that Japan was able to get away with it.

Vichy France never declared war on anyone. They broke off diplomatic relations with the UK after Mers-el-Kebir. The reason Japan invaded northern FIC was to deny Nationalist China trade via the Sino - Vietnamese railway after Vichy France didn't agree to stop the trade.

Even if that means Australia is cut off the USA for a year or more, since IJN/IJA is operating from Guadalcanal ?

Japan on Guadalcanal wouldn't stop ships from getting to Australia. There are still 2,000+ miles of ocean between Guadalcanal and Wellington, NZ and 1300+ miles to Brisbane. Ships could still get to Australia from the US by sailing further to the south.
 
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