If Japan had his better weapons a year earlier

I was just playing around (in my head) these days with various japanese technological and tactical ATL ideas. Which weapons and what years are we talking about (early war, late war years?), is it moving all the new generation ships, planes etc one year early? (like Shiden, Tenzan, Ryusei, Reppu, the new carriers, army developments etc. etc.)? I'd like (if i have time) to contribute my ideas for getting various weapons in service one year early, and what i think the effects could be.

One possible ATL i run is, as Japan is having all these new weapons earlier, they manage to keep the americans at arms length (ie away from reaching the home islands) for longer, so when the atomic bombs are dropped, at least much fewer of japanese cities would have been destroyed by B-29s firebombing attacks, hence that many less civilian casualties.
 
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Both Germany and Japan started wars at the moment they considered their existing arms and armed forces appropriately prepared for victory.until the enemy gave up, and war ended. They miscalculated the degree of success required for the end goal to be achieved. Thus, their original weapons were fine, but they didn't count on needing to continue, against industrial giants whose response to their opening losses was to build much better and more numerous weapons to counter. The difference in resources and industry, as well as manpower, tied to will and stamina, told the simple tale. There are numerous instances where Japan failed to develop better weapons and better tactics sooner, but their original strategy had failed to recognize that the war was lost before it started. Poor accounting.
 
Japan still loses the war of Naval attrition the Allies suffer greater losses,but Japan still gets bombed and starved into submission just a few months later.
 
I wonder if Japan would have moved a year earlier.

Perhaps they could have moved as soon as they occupied French Indochina. Japan will eventually lose but if they had their carriers ready earlier and they moved earlier they would have had a longer period of near parity before American reinforcements come online during which it could have an advantage.
 
Also Japan really didn't have much to offer in the later stages of the war, especially with small arms. The only thing that they should have changed was the dependence on bravery to make up for the arms they had. In my opinion Japanese firearms versus American firearms, I will take American any time. In fact its amazing what Japan accomplished what it did with the weapons that it had. The thing that might have helped them on the ground is a type 100 submachine gun being more common. They made like a 1000 of them for paratroopers to use instead of machine guns.
 
The problem is that even if all of these show up a year earlier - that is sometime in 1944 not 1945 - there are several problems. First off, even if you have enough raw materials to make all of these there will always be a dip as production shifts. All the improved aircraft in the world won't fly without AVGAS, and in the hands of minimally trained pilots become somewhat more difficult targets, but targets nonetheless. Quality control was a problem for Japan throughout the war especially with higher performance aero engines and the like - the aircraft need those sort of engines which is yet another issue. Of course there will be a few veteran pilots who will do very well with better aircraft, but they are very few.

The reasons that B-29s did not suffer the sort of losses against the Japanese that the 8th AF did were numerous. They were not that Japanese aircraft could not be effective against B-29s especially once they stopped high altitude raids, or that any individual AA piece was poor - the Japanese did not have much radar, they had no decent air defense control, they had relatively little AAA, and they did not send many planes against the B-29s due to pilot issues, lack of aviation gasoline, and the concept of saving what they had for hitting the Americans first at Okinawa and then when an invasion happened. If they had F-35s, but no fuel...
 

nbcman

Donor
For carrier based aircraft, having a one year advancement wouldn't change much for December 1941. The dive bomber would still be D3A Val since the D4Y Judy didn't enter full production until early 1943. The torpedo bomber would still be B5N Kate because it's successor B6N Jill also didn't start production until 1943. Still the same fighter A6M Zero. The Japanese largely fought the war through 1943 with the same aircraft types that they used to attack PH and Malaya.

Even if you gave the Japanese late war aircraft, they weren't significantly better protected than their 1941 counterparts plus the aircraft from later in the war couldn't operate on the slower CV conversions like Hiyo and Junyo. So there would have been a minor advantage to Japan until 1943 as compared to OTL but the US aircraft quality would have still surpassed them by then - not to mention the numbers of aircraft that the US could bring to bear.
 
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I wonder if Japan would have moved a year earlier.
Could they strike south (without hitting USA) just as the FoF makes the GB to busy to send much east? Or even more thoughtfully (or near ASB) just take the DEI and offer GB to keep Malaya and civilian investments in DEI if they agree to peace?
 
I doubt the tanks would make any difference save to eat resources. Because "Hey we got this tank to rival/stand up to the M4" when the M4 was already in service and would be seen against the IJA in large numbers. A tank that might be produced in small numbers vs an equal produced in numbers that are by Japanese terms, simply biblical.

What might have helped is more carriers and escorts early, but even then its a case of they pop up in 1944 and are already massively outnumbered by Essex spam with little fuel and poorly trained pilots.

And of course that familiar drumbeat of the Japanese "What if."

"Okay what if this, but where you getting the resources to build it?"

And thats the crux of the matter. To use a meme "Can't build weapons if ya aint got no steel an' oil.'" And to go "Okay they get 4 Unryu Carriers in late 43." Its then a case of what did they sacrifice to get these ships? What artillery, what subs, what tanks, what guns, what planes? Why did the army and Airforce agree to this? And so on. Japan can't fart out steel like the US could. Its got to come from somewhere and to build something, its at the cost of something else.
 
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Perhaps they could have moved as soon as they occupied French Indochina. Japan will eventually lose but if they had their carriers ready earlier and they moved earlier they would have had a longer period of near parity before American reinforcements come online during which it could have an advantage.
If Japan invades FIC in Sep. 1939 instead of 1940 it would be interesting to see how France reacts, as they have just declared war on Germany.

However, move the Japanese invasion of FIC to earlier in 1939, say to spring 1939, then we may see France send a significant naval force.
 
Subtle improvements for the Zero that were done in OTL might've see the Battle of Midway tuning less of a slaughter for the Japanese carriers. Each A/C with radio?
Further, the Zeros in mid-1942 have had the 2 x 20 mm cannons that were drum-fed, 60 rpg. Shortly after, the armament ammo supply improved to 100 rd boxes, and by 1943better 20mm cannons (greater MV) with belt feed. Thus the Zero of 1943 that is used in 1942 will need less times to land on the carrier, replenish it's ammo, while the hit % will be also improved. Thus only two carriers are hit instead of three by the time SBDs returned from their 1st go, and Japanese kill Yorktown instead of damging it initially? That further improves the chances against the second wave of SBDs (that IOTL got the 4th remaining CV), so both sides return home with 1 carrier each?

Earlier Shokis and Hiens do improve chances for the IJA pilots doing their missions, so does the earlier Raiden for the IJN?
 
Subtle improvements for the Zero that were done in OTL might've see the Battle of Midway tuning less of a slaughter for the Japanese carriers. Each A/C with radio?
Further, the Zeros in mid-1942 have had the 2 x 20 mm cannons that were drum-fed, 60 rpg. Shortly after, the armament ammo supply improved to 100 rd boxes, and by 1943better 20mm cannons (greater MV) with belt feed. Thus the Zero of 1943 that is used in 1942 will need less times to land on the carrier, replenish it's ammo, while the hit % will be also improved. Thus only two carriers are hit instead of three by the time SBDs returned from their 1st go, and Japanese kill Yorktown instead of damging it initially? That further improves the chances against the second wave of SBDs (that IOTL got the 4th remaining CV), so both sides return home with 1 carrier each?

Earlier Shokis and Hiens do improve chances for the IJA pilots doing their missions, so does the earlier Raiden for the IJN?

Fully agree with what you say, i would add that Hayate and Shiden in 1943 would help proportionally as well, same as an earlier Ki-100, and in connection to Midway i would add something else: radar. IJN got radars in use on their CVs starting with Eastern Solomons, have it earlier (according to this TL, even before Pearl Harbour) and at least they get enough warning to stack up the Zeros to face the high altitude SBDs. One single bomb hit less (Best's on Akagi) and the entire strategic situation in Pacific dramatically changes. I play this as Yorktown is killed by the 11.00 Akagi and Hiryu's strike, second strike at 13.30 goes for TF16, which might damage or sink one or both of Spruance's carriers. IJN could reverse the 10.25 disaster and win a tactical victory by forcing the remnants of TF16 away from the area. It doesn't matter if they manage to invade Midway or not, Akagi, Hiryu or both surviving dramatically changes everything in the near term.

Let's have a look at some other possibilities: the D4Y and B6N entered full service and combat in autumn 1943, i am sure some of you are aware why, but if the problems are fixed earlier, per this ATL they start entering service in late 1942. The B6N is a very fast torpecker, while the D4Y is faster than the F4F by a wide margin! Facing these machines in any numbers in late 1942 and 1943 will give the americans major headaches, especially if flown by the still fairly numerous well trained aviators. Even if flown by novices, their higher performance alone increases the pilots chances of survival by that much, and same goes for fighters, you can bet a novice has a higher chance of surviving in an A7M or N1K2-J rather than an A6M!

Another one is the P1Y Ginga, OTL it entered combat in mid 1944 over the Marianas, but in this TL it's available in mid-1943. It is much faster and it has pilot and fuel tank protection compared to the old G4M, so again it's rate or survival and hence the damage it could cause to the americans is that much higher. The same scenario can be played for the remarcable B7A Ryusei too, entering service and combat in the first part of 1944 would again cause considerable grief to the USN.

Another example, for instance the B-29 raids by day and night could be met by an earlier produced Ki-102 AND the remarcable Ki-83, possibly the J5N Tenrai too (if not cancelled, although likely it is still cancelled and the IJN buys the Ki-83 too, this is what they planned in OTL afaik), all this instead of the completely obsolete Ki-45 and J1N that were used in OTL from mid-1944. Many, many more B-29s will be shot down, and even if they switch to night attacks, earlier airborne radar on these Ki-102 and Ki-83 (and on other types) would make life rough for the americans at night too. The Ki-87 could be met in combat in 1945, again, another high performance machine (as a sidenote, me i always fancied the idea of the Ki-64 fitted with normal radiators and the Ki-94-I both being built). Yes, i am fully aware about the engine and fuel quality (and fuel quantity) issues, but having all these very modern machines, even if unreliable, would have worth more than not having them at all.

One other is jet fighters (J8M, Kikka, Ki-201 etc. also i think thre was a jet powered Ginga derivative?) in testing in OTL mid-1945, but in this TL they could actually be met in combat in increasing numbers in 1945. Also, how about an earlier Ohka, which could be used in combat as early as spring 1944, maybe in this TL launched from the P1Y or even the G8N? This is also an earlier use of kamikaze as well.

In regards to the always brough up argument of "resources" surely it's obvious that having all these weapons earlier means first and foremost manufacturing them INSTEAD of whatever older designs were built in OTL. Of course, for instance you can't built an A7M instead of every A6M built in 1944-45, but f.e. probably a smaller number of A7M worth more than a larger number of A6Ms.


And thats the crux of the matter. To use a meme "Can't build weapons if ya aint got no steel an' oil.'" And to go "Okay they get 4 Unryu Carriers in late 43." Its then a case of what did they sacrifice to get these ships? What artillery, what subs, what tanks, what guns, what planes? Why did the army and Airforce agree to this? And so on. Japan can't fart out steel like the US could. Its got to come from somewhere and to build something, its at the cost of something else.

Finally, regarding having 4 Unryus in 1943, of course it is teoretically possible to build them without any extra resources compared to OTL, they could be built instead of Ibuki, Oyodo, No.111 and even Shinano, AND have steel left to spare. Plausible POD is not impossible to construct, in OTL in November 1941 the wartime priorities were estabilished as aircraft, subs and carriers anyway, plus the japanese knew that the americans were building 8 to 10 CVs (Essex class), you can have them immediately scrap the BBs, cancel the cruisers and start building the Unryus etc. Alternatively, you could have Shinano finished as CV in spring 1944, if the decision to convert it is taken in late 1941.

And all this can go on and on and on.
 
To get to an earlier time, i mentioned with other occasions that IJAAF could have gotten the Ki-43 and Ki-45 in production in 1940 (and found and fixed the Ki-43 wing issues earlier) if they weren't so fussy. Then the IJAAF would have had a modern fighter force facing the US and UK from December 1941 too, like IJNAF had. Then as Tomo suggests Ki-44 is in service in numbers in 1942, rather than just a handful for operational testing in OTL. They are altogether much tougher opponents for the P-40, Hurricane, F2A etc compared to the poor Ki-27 which was still the main IJAAF fighter in early 1942.
 
I'm no expert but one issue with all of the improved aircraft types is that they all required much better engines than their predecessors, and the Japanese had production issues with those as well as a question of adequate amounts of certain materials for improving metallurgy for those engines. Moving up production does not give you more/better radios, and as far as radar goes a limiting factor was production capacity for electronics, which won't increase. More armor for the crews, self sealing tanks, etc also require more "stuff" to build and takes a little longer to make each plane. What happens is you end up with better but fewer aircraft, and the better is not spectacular, and you have decreasing pilot quality even with fewer losses as the training plan still sucks. If you try to fix that, you need more trainers and more fuel for training meaning less combat aircraft and less fuel for operations.

Even if ASBs deal with the production difficulties the Japanese had with high performance engines, the metallurgical problems don't go away - raw materials. The limits on production don't go away and every extra man-hour spent making a better plane compared to the old one means the number of planes produced goes down. If the new aircraft have higher powered engines, then they require high octane fuel, and more of it than older models - and the Japanese are always on the edge for fuel.

Moving up improved weapons, aircraft, ship types, radar, infantry weapons by a year can make things more painful for the Allies, but not a lot. Nothing Japan had on the drawing boards would, if produced a year earlier, have made a huge difference. IMHO the numbers in some areas would be smaller for reasons discussed and that would not be made up for by quality as the sheer numbers of American weapons and personnel were steamrollering the Japanese. The limitations of the Japanese economy and the problems with raw materials simply could not be made for with incrementally better weapons. Give the Japanese of 1945 the aircraft etc of 1955, OK, but then Skippy the ASB and his friends have to work overtime.
 
. Thus the Zero of 1943 that is used in 1942 will need less times to land on the carrier, replenish it's ammo, while the hit % will be also improved

A6M3 had smaller fuselage fuel tank, and the Sakae 21 used more fuel, so rang dropped from 1930 miles to 1477 miles. That changes attacks they did OTL right there, unable to do some of the attacks they did.
Going to the Model 52, you got some more self sealing tanks, CO2 fire extinguisher, and increased the thickness of the skinning to increase the strength to allow higher G maneuvers and diving speed, that all added weight, as did the new cannons, so had worse handling that the PH version Model 22
 
A6M3 had smaller fuselage fuel tank, and the Sakae 21 used more fuel, so rang dropped from 1930 miles to 1477 miles. That changes attacks they did OTL right there, unable to do some of the attacks they did.

A6M3 was a shared designation of the both Model 32 and Model 22. Fuel tankage (plus 320-330L drop tank):
-Model 11 and Model 21 (A6M2a and b): fuselage 145L, wings 380
-Model 32 (accepted in April 1942, 343 produced): fuselage 60L, wings 410L
-Model 22 (accepted in January 1943, yes - later than Model 32; 560 produced): fuselage 60L, wings 520L

Basically - the Model 22 alows for at least as good range as the Model 11 or 21. Makes also a better speed, ~20 mph faster than F4F4 vs. ~10 mph advantage.

Going to the Model 52, you got some more self sealing tanks, CO2 fire extinguisher, and increased the thickness of the skinning to increase the strength to allow higher G maneuvers and diving speed, that all added weight, as did the new cannons, so had worse handling that the PH version Model 22

The self sealing tanks and other means of protection were introduced with Model 52c (from October 1944), not with Model 52 (from August 1943 on). Mod 52 also introduced better exhausts that brought another 15 mph speed increase. only for the Mod 52c to kill off those gains via extra weight and drag.
I'm sure that nobody expects a variant with better armament and other equipment to retain the handling qualities of it's lightweight predecessors.
 

SsgtC

Banned
I honestly don't see this mattering much at all. Even if we assume that the Japanese put the spurs to their weapon development, the US is not going to sit idly by. Odds are, they're going to figure out the carrier handling issues of the F4U, and get them out to the fleet ASAP. While simultaneously accelerating the development of the F6F and F8F. This might add six months to the war, but I think it still ends with Japan getting crushed

Fully agree with what you say, i would add that Hayate and Shiden in 1943 would help proportionally as well, same as an earlier Ki-100, and in connection to Midway i would add something else: radar. IJN got radars in use on their CVs starting with Eastern Solomons, have it earlier (according to this TL, even before Pearl Harbour) and at least they get enough warning to stack up the Zeros to face the high altitude SBDs. One single bomb hit less (Best's on Akagi) and the entire strategic situation in Pacific dramatically changes. I play this as Yorktown is killed by the 11.00 Akagi and Hiryu's strike, second strike at 13.30 goes for TF16, which might damage or sink one or both of Spruance's carriers. IJN could reverse the 10.25 disaster and win a tactical victory by forcing the remnants of TF16 away from the area. It doesn't matter if they manage to invade Midway or not, Akagi, Hiryu or both surviving dramatically changes everything in the near term.

Let's have a look at some other possibilities: the D4Y and B6N entered full service and combat in autumn 1943, i am sure some of you are aware why, but if the problems are fixed earlier, per this ATL they start entering service in late 1942. The B6N is a very fast torpecker, while the D4Y is faster than the F4F by a wide margin! Facing these machines in any numbers in late 1942 and 1943 will give the americans major headaches, especially if flown by the still fairly numerous well trained aviators. Even if flown by novices, their higher performance alone increases the pilots chances of survival by that much, and same goes for fighters, you can bet a novice has a higher chance of surviving in an A7M or N1K2-J rather than an A6M!

Another one is the P1Y Ginga, OTL it entered combat in mid 1944 over the Marianas, but in this TL it's available in mid-1943. It is much faster and it has pilot and fuel tank protection compared to the old G4M, so again it's rate or survival and hence the damage it could cause to the americans is that much higher. The same scenario can be played for the remarcable B7A Ryusei too, entering service and combat in the first part of 1944 would again cause considerable grief to the USN.

Another example, for instance the B-29 raids by day and night could be met by an earlier produced Ki-102 AND the remarcable Ki-83, possibly the J5N Tenrai too (if not cancelled, although likely it is still cancelled and the IJN buys the Ki-83 too, this is what they planned in OTL afaik), all this instead of the completely obsolete Ki-45 and J1N that were used in OTL from mid-1944. Many, many more B-29s will be shot down, and even if they switch to night attacks, earlier airborne radar on these Ki-102 and Ki-83 (and on other types) would make life rough for the americans at night too. The Ki-87 could be met in combat in 1945, again, another high performance machine (as a sidenote, me i always fancied the idea of the Ki-64 fitted with normal radiators and the Ki-94-I both being built). Yes, i am fully aware about the engine and fuel quality (and fuel quantity) issues, but having all these very modern machines, even if unreliable, would have worth more than not having them at all.

One other is jet fighters (J8M, Kikka, Ki-201 etc. also i think thre was a jet powered Ginga derivative?) in testing in OTL mid-1945, but in this TL they could actually be met in combat in increasing numbers in 1945. Also, how about an earlier Ohka, which could be used in combat as early as spring 1944, maybe in this TL launched from the P1Y or even the G8N? This is also an earlier use of kamikaze as well.

In regards to the always brough up argument of "resources" surely it's obvious that having all these weapons earlier means first and foremost manufacturing them INSTEAD of whatever older designs were built in OTL. Of course, for instance you can't built an A7M instead of every A6M built in 1944-45, but f.e. probably a smaller number of A7M worth more than a larger number of A6Ms.




Finally, regarding having 4 Unryus in 1943, of course it is teoretically possible to build them without any extra resources compared to OTL, they could be built instead of Ibuki, Oyodo, No.111 and even Shinano, AND have steel left to spare. Plausible POD is not impossible to construct, in OTL in November 1941 the wartime priorities were estabilished as aircraft, subs and carriers anyway, plus the japanese knew that the americans were building 8 to 10 CVs (Essex class), you can have them immediately scrap the BBs, cancel the cruisers and start building the Unryus etc. Alternatively, you could have Shinano finished as CV in spring 1944, if the decision to convert it is taken in late 1941.

And all this can go on and on and on.
 
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