So,if Japan had his better weapons a year earlier,would they make a change in the war outcome or just postpone the Japanese defeat?
Could they strike south (without hitting USA) just as the FoF makes the GB to busy to send much east? Or even more thoughtfully (or near ASB) just take the DEI and offer GB to keep Malaya and civilian investments in DEI if they agree to peace?I wonder if Japan would have moved a year earlier.
If Japan invades FIC in Sep. 1939 instead of 1940 it would be interesting to see how France reacts, as they have just declared war on Germany.Perhaps they could have moved as soon as they occupied French Indochina. Japan will eventually lose but if they had their carriers ready earlier and they moved earlier they would have had a longer period of near parity before American reinforcements come online during which it could have an advantage.
Subtle improvements for the Zero that were done in OTL might've see the Battle of Midway tuning less of a slaughter for the Japanese carriers. Each A/C with radio?
Further, the Zeros in mid-1942 have had the 2 x 20 mm cannons that were drum-fed, 60 rpg. Shortly after, the armament ammo supply improved to 100 rd boxes, and by 1943better 20mm cannons (greater MV) with belt feed. Thus the Zero of 1943 that is used in 1942 will need less times to land on the carrier, replenish it's ammo, while the hit % will be also improved. Thus only two carriers are hit instead of three by the time SBDs returned from their 1st go, and Japanese kill Yorktown instead of damging it initially? That further improves the chances against the second wave of SBDs (that IOTL got the 4th remaining CV), so both sides return home with 1 carrier each?
Earlier Shokis and Hiens do improve chances for the IJA pilots doing their missions, so does the earlier Raiden for the IJN?
And thats the crux of the matter. To use a meme "Can't build weapons if ya aint got no steel an' oil.'" And to go "Okay they get 4 Unryu Carriers in late 43." Its then a case of what did they sacrifice to get these ships? What artillery, what subs, what tanks, what guns, what planes? Why did the army and Airforce agree to this? And so on. Japan can't fart out steel like the US could. Its got to come from somewhere and to build something, its at the cost of something else.
. Thus the Zero of 1943 that is used in 1942 will need less times to land on the carrier, replenish it's ammo, while the hit % will be also improved
A6M3 had smaller fuselage fuel tank, and the Sakae 21 used more fuel, so rang dropped from 1930 miles to 1477 miles. That changes attacks they did OTL right there, unable to do some of the attacks they did.
Going to the Model 52, you got some more self sealing tanks, CO2 fire extinguisher, and increased the thickness of the skinning to increase the strength to allow higher G maneuvers and diving speed, that all added weight, as did the new cannons, so had worse handling that the PH version Model 22
Fully agree with what you say, i would add that Hayate and Shiden in 1943 would help proportionally as well, same as an earlier Ki-100, and in connection to Midway i would add something else: radar. IJN got radars in use on their CVs starting with Eastern Solomons, have it earlier (according to this TL, even before Pearl Harbour) and at least they get enough warning to stack up the Zeros to face the high altitude SBDs. One single bomb hit less (Best's on Akagi) and the entire strategic situation in Pacific dramatically changes. I play this as Yorktown is killed by the 11.00 Akagi and Hiryu's strike, second strike at 13.30 goes for TF16, which might damage or sink one or both of Spruance's carriers. IJN could reverse the 10.25 disaster and win a tactical victory by forcing the remnants of TF16 away from the area. It doesn't matter if they manage to invade Midway or not, Akagi, Hiryu or both surviving dramatically changes everything in the near term.
Let's have a look at some other possibilities: the D4Y and B6N entered full service and combat in autumn 1943, i am sure some of you are aware why, but if the problems are fixed earlier, per this ATL they start entering service in late 1942. The B6N is a very fast torpecker, while the D4Y is faster than the F4F by a wide margin! Facing these machines in any numbers in late 1942 and 1943 will give the americans major headaches, especially if flown by the still fairly numerous well trained aviators. Even if flown by novices, their higher performance alone increases the pilots chances of survival by that much, and same goes for fighters, you can bet a novice has a higher chance of surviving in an A7M or N1K2-J rather than an A6M!
Another one is the P1Y Ginga, OTL it entered combat in mid 1944 over the Marianas, but in this TL it's available in mid-1943. It is much faster and it has pilot and fuel tank protection compared to the old G4M, so again it's rate or survival and hence the damage it could cause to the americans is that much higher. The same scenario can be played for the remarcable B7A Ryusei too, entering service and combat in the first part of 1944 would again cause considerable grief to the USN.
Another example, for instance the B-29 raids by day and night could be met by an earlier produced Ki-102 AND the remarcable Ki-83, possibly the J5N Tenrai too (if not cancelled, although likely it is still cancelled and the IJN buys the Ki-83 too, this is what they planned in OTL afaik), all this instead of the completely obsolete Ki-45 and J1N that were used in OTL from mid-1944. Many, many more B-29s will be shot down, and even if they switch to night attacks, earlier airborne radar on these Ki-102 and Ki-83 (and on other types) would make life rough for the americans at night too. The Ki-87 could be met in combat in 1945, again, another high performance machine (as a sidenote, me i always fancied the idea of the Ki-64 fitted with normal radiators and the Ki-94-I both being built). Yes, i am fully aware about the engine and fuel quality (and fuel quantity) issues, but having all these very modern machines, even if unreliable, would have worth more than not having them at all.
One other is jet fighters (J8M, Kikka, Ki-201 etc. also i think thre was a jet powered Ginga derivative?) in testing in OTL mid-1945, but in this TL they could actually be met in combat in increasing numbers in 1945. Also, how about an earlier Ohka, which could be used in combat as early as spring 1944, maybe in this TL launched from the P1Y or even the G8N? This is also an earlier use of kamikaze as well.
In regards to the always brough up argument of "resources" surely it's obvious that having all these weapons earlier means first and foremost manufacturing them INSTEAD of whatever older designs were built in OTL. Of course, for instance you can't built an A7M instead of every A6M built in 1944-45, but f.e. probably a smaller number of A7M worth more than a larger number of A6Ms.
Finally, regarding having 4 Unryus in 1943, of course it is teoretically possible to build them without any extra resources compared to OTL, they could be built instead of Ibuki, Oyodo, No.111 and even Shinano, AND have steel left to spare. Plausible POD is not impossible to construct, in OTL in November 1941 the wartime priorities were estabilished as aircraft, subs and carriers anyway, plus the japanese knew that the americans were building 8 to 10 CVs (Essex class), you can have them immediately scrap the BBs, cancel the cruisers and start building the Unryus etc. Alternatively, you could have Shinano finished as CV in spring 1944, if the decision to convert it is taken in late 1941.
And all this can go on and on and on.