If Japan avoids Pearl Harbor...

The question is how. Is Japan avoiding Pearl Harbour by not going for Southern Indochina and avoid the oil embargo, ....

Smartest thing Japan could do. US sanctions were weak to that point. The US was focused on Europe & hoped the Japanese problem would fade away w/o US attention. The occupation of FIC changed everything.
 
It wouldn't have made any sense to Japan at the time, but if they had foresight, in 1941, their best outcome would be to come to terms with the US. It might have required withdrawing from Indochina and mainland China outside of Manchuria. It would have left Japan short of minerals. Maybe they could have had a trade agreement with the US as part of that deal.

They probably would have avoided any war that way, and could resume their competitive manufacturing economy that started in the 1930's. They were even outcompeting the UK in textiles before WW2. The world class economy they had in the 1980's could have been possible in the 1950's.
 
Smartest thing Japan could do. US sanctions were weak to that point. The US was focused on Europe & hoped the Japanese problem would fade away w/o US attention. The occupation of FIC changed everything.

It would be the smart thing to do but it would not work.

The oil sanctions were effective enough to stop almost all the oil. Japanese navy, air force and much of the army will slowly ground to a halt for lack of oil. The only possible oil source is Russia and with Germany at war with Russia and the Russian demands on their own oil, I doubt Japan will get much there.

The reason Japan when it did was this was the last chance to strike before it loses all.
 
He doesn't need to. He doesn't even need to order the engagement of Japanese ships on sight, as was happening in the Atlantic. Simply having US forces shadowing Japanese units, reporting their position and course in clear, will result in de facto war very rapidly.
Not many USN forces around the Dutch Possessions

Trying to explain to Congress on why the USN was shooting at IJN ships in the Luzon Strait outside the then current 3 nautical mile limit for territorial waters would not play well with the isolationists
 
Depends does Japan still attack the Dutch and the British cause even without fighting the Americans they need that Indonesian oil. If they don't then we see them try to do basically everything possible to end the war in China within the next two years, when they can't do that China become a even bloodier quagmire. If Japan doesn't peace out their troops will still be fighting there by the end of the decade. There's still a chance for the Second Sino-Japanese War to remain separate from the European War.

If they still attack the Dutch and the British, we'd see more success with some of their initial offensives. How long the Americans can stay out of the war I don't know. Enough ships get sunk by German subs, or something else would probably eventually drag them in. The war would be longer and a lot more people would die but the end result would be the same.

u.s. would be in the war within a week. that deal was already made with NEI/GB. 10 of asiatic fleet's 12 operational destroyers were on the way to singapore/batavia at H-hour. easy enough for a few sunk destroyers being the cassus belli presented to congress.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Not many USN forces around the Dutch Possessions

Trying to explain to Congress on why the USN was shooting at IJN ships in the Luzon Strait outside the then current 3 nautical mile limit for territorial waters would not play well with the isolationists

The stupid, it burns.

A United States Navy destroyer was engaged on peaceful business, on a routine voyage from Manila to Singapore.

It, with lights on and not at battle stations, encountered a Japanese fleet, who attacked her.

The Japanese attacked first, as they did on the Panay. The USN, as Americans being fired upon, then returned fire.

It was an act of war by the Japs. A day that will live in infamy.
 
u.s. would be in the war within a week. that deal was already made with NEI/GB. 10 of asiatic fleet's 12 operational destroyers were on the way to singapore/batavia at H-hour. easy enough for a few sunk destroyers being the cassus belli presented to congress.
The rumor was to goto Singapore, but I don't think that was ever confirmed
They were ordered to Borneo, Destroyer Division 57 to Balikpapan, 58 to Tarakan, four DDs in each Division, where they were at on the 7th

59 was patrolling from Manila, but was down two ships, they were under repair

And sunk destroyers, like Reuben James that started WWII in the Atlantic in October?
 
The Japanese attacked first, as they did on the Panay. The USN, as Americans being fired upon, then returned fire.

It was an act of war by the Japs. A day that will live in infamy.

But no war from that in 1937.

Could claim misidentified, as they did in 1937
 

Ian_W

Banned
But no war from that in 1937.

Could claim misidentified, as they did in 1937

Unless you are drinking the stupid hard, that isn't the problem.

The problem is she has been transmitting in clear the location of the Japanese fleet.
 
Unless you are drinking the stupid hard, that isn't the problem.

What is your malfunction?

Who shit in your cornflakes today?

You think an attack on a ship means instant War?

Soviet bombers in 1937 misidentified the Deutschland as Nationalist heavy cruiser, killed 31 and wounded around twice as many from their bomb runs

No Soviet-German War from that
 

Ian_W

Banned
What is your malfunction?

Who shit in your cornflakes today?

You think an attack on a ship means instant War?

Soviet bombers in 1937 misidentified the Deutschland as Nationalist heavy cruiser, killed 31 and wounded around twice as many from their bomb runs

No Soviet-German War from that

Uhuh.

Then the Americans keep building more ships, keep sending more small ships and submarines to tail the Japanese and report to the British I'm sorry, keep demonstrating freedom of navigation, and keep reinforcing the Phillipines.

The stupid is almost up to IJA levels by this point.
 
That would be deliberately provocative, something his opponents won't hesitate to use. What he needs is a clear, unambiguous, unprovoked attack on an American base or American territory.

Exactly. It must be kept in mind that in 1941
IOTL the POTUS did not- as he does now-
have unlimited power in the field of foreign
affairs. One reason was that the US millitary
was far, far weaker than it is today(to a
degree that today we can’t even imagine).
Second, & even more importantly, was that
the Congress- again, unlike today- actually
took its responsibilities in foreign affairs ser-
iously. It actually sought to keep Presidents-
for good or bad- under control. Thus unless
like you said Saint you had a clear, suppos-
edly unprovoked attack on America there
would have been no shortage of people in
Congress who would have jumped on FDR
with everything they had & refused to go
along with him.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I believe that the continued American control over the Philippines would cut the Japanese access to all resources they control south of the Phillipenes.

Any attack on the ditch East Indies and British commonwealth would be a signal that japan needs to be restrained and the US would reinforce it forces both in Philippines and Hawai.

So from a logistic point of view, surprise attack on the US was the best course of action. It was a two prong attack the attempt destruction of American fleet in Pearl Harbor and capture of Philippines.

I wonder if the capture of Hawai would of provided them with additional time to consolidate their position. It could of added 1-2 years to the war (short of US developing nuclear weapons and then carptet bombing the pacific till they get to Japanese islands.

PS the Germans only declared war agsinst US after Pearl Harbor not before.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Exactly. It must be kept in mind that in 1941
IOTL the POTUS did not- as he does now-
have unlimited power in the field of foreign
affairs. One reason was that the US millitary
was far, far weaker than it is today(to a
degree that today we can’t even imagine).
Second, & even more importantly, was that
the Congress- again, unlike today- actually
took its responsibilities in foreign affairs ser-
iously. It actually sought to keep Presidents-
for good or bad- under control. Thus unless
like you said Saint you had a clear, suppos-
edly unprovoked attack on America there
would have been no shortage of people in
Congress who would have jumped on FDR
with everything they had & refused to go
along with him.

Again, the stupid, it burns.

The Two Ocean Navy act has already been passed. America is getting stronger and stronger, and they are continuing to reinforce.

The British and American naval staffs are already trading information.

If the IJN is happy to have American naval vessels tailing them and reporting, they lose all surprise against the British.

If they aren't, they are going to need to sink them. Repeatedly. Because Roosevelt wants America in the war.
 
The US was expecting hostilities to open in China against the US river patrol boats. The Japanese invasion fleets had been spotted on the 6th of December. Roosevelt was going to initiate Armed Neutrality Patrols in the western Pacific on the 8th of December to aid the Dutch and British. It would not be long before clashes would occur.
 
Germany wanted Japan to focus on British position in Far East to help force them from the war

"Japan must take steps to seize Singapore as soon as possible, since the opportunity will never again be as favorable (tie-up of the whole English Meet; unpreparedness of U.S.A. for war against Japan; inferiority of the United States Pacific Fleet in comparison with the Japanese). Japan is indeed making preparations for this action; but according to all declarations made by Japanese officers, she will only carry it out if Germany proceeds to land in England. Germany must, therefore, concentrate all her efforts on spurring Japan to act immediately. If Japan has Singapore, all other East Asiatic questions regarding the U.S.A. and England are thereby solved (Guam, Philippines, Borneo, Dutch East Indies). Japan wishes, if possible, to avoid war against the U.S.A. She can do so if she determinedly takes Singapore as soon as possible."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany–Japan_relations

seems like threading the needle a bit much, to reach for the British territories exclusively?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The stupid, it burns.

A United States Navy destroyer was engaged on peaceful business, on a routine voyage from Manila to Singapore.

It, with lights on and not at battle stations, encountered a Japanese fleet, who attacked her.

The Japanese attacked first, as they did on the Panay. The USN, as Americans being fired upon, then returned fire.

It was an act of war by the Japs. A day that will live in infamy.
Play the ball.

Not going to warn on this again.
 
Exactly. It must be kept in mind that in 1941
IOTL the POTUS did not- as he does now-
have unlimited power in the field of foreign
affairs. One reason was that the US millitary
was far, far weaker than it is today(to a
degree that today we can’t even imagine).
Second, & even more importantly, was that
the Congress- again, unlike today- actually
took its responsibilities in foreign affairs ser-
iously. It actually sought to keep Presidents-
for good or bad- under control. Thus unless
like you said Saint you had a clear, suppos-
edly unprovoked attack on America there
would have been no shortage of people in
Congress who would have jumped on FDR
with everything they had & refused to go
along with him.
While I somewhat disagree with your conclusion, we do here frequently forget that we are talking about 1492 or 1783 or 1941 and not 2018 when we analyze the goings on of past times and past minds. Nice summary of what was the actual tenor of the times...
 
The rumor was to goto Singapore, but I don't think that was ever confirmed
They were ordered to Borneo, Destroyer Division 57 to Balikpapan, 58 to Tarakan, four DDs in each Division, where they were at on the 7th

59 was patrolling from Manila, but was down two ships, they were under repair

And sunk destroyers, like Reuben James that started WWII in the Atlantic in October?


https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/ships/dafs/DD/dd211.html
 
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