If Japan avoids Pearl Harbor...

Geon

Donor
I see no way Japan can avoid Pearl Harbor. She had invaded China, she had taken Indo-China, she needed access to the resources of Southeast Asia. There was no way the U.S. could not get involved in this. Therefore Japan had to take out the U.S capability for making war. The only way they could do that was by their Pearl Harbor attack. It's not a matter of avoiding Pearl Harbor, in my opinion it is a matter of doing better at Pearl Harbor-which has been the source of numerous discussions here.
 
The Americans would have sought an excuse to stop the growing power of Japan, but without an attack on Hawai'i or the Philippines, they'd be hard-pressed to find one. Japan would have an easier time in the Pacific, perhaps more time to consolidate its power. Whether that would be enough is another debate.

Had Japan the brains to stockpile metal and oil beforehand, and tried to take sources of oil from places more accessible to it, it would realize the American embargo, while still painful, could be circumvented.
 
No, still kick the British and Dutch, leave the P.I. alone

Will FDR like it?

Not at all.

But he can't get a DoW over it.
Has there been a good TL were Japan realizes it only wins if Germany wins.
Id guess toke DOI and then move towards india and middle east? Could the do it a reasonable part of the Way without their eastern pacific front?
 
Depends does Japan still attack the Dutch and the British cause even without fighting the Americans they need that Indonesian oil. If they don't then we see them try to do basically everything possible to end the war in China within the next two years, when they can't do that China become a even bloodier quagmire. If Japan doesn't peace out their troops will still be fighting there by the end of the decade. There's still a chance for the Second Sino-Japanese War to remain separate from the European War.

If they still attack the Dutch and the British, we'd see more success with some of their initial offensives. How long the Americans can stay out of the war I don't know. Enough ships get sunk by German subs, or something else would probably eventually drag them in. The war would be longer and a lot more people would die but the end result would be the same.
 
Has there been a good TL were Japan realizes it only wins if Germany wins.
Id guess toke DOI and then move towards india and middle east? Could the do it a reasonable part of the Way without their eastern pacific front?

I feel that Japan does best ignoring Nazi Germany, too far away for aid or trade. Only advantage they got out of the Pact of Steel was to get Italy and lesser extent Germany from selling arms to the KMT, and be a threat to the USSR, that went away in 1939 with the M-R agreement

They could have left the PoS in 1940. After getting French Indochina, they don't need the Germans anymore.

Then they could try to co-opt the Dutch after 1840 before going with invasion, too
 
Depends does Japan still attack the Dutch and the British cause even without fighting the Americans they need that Indonesian oil.
For a moment I thought you said America needed that oil. :p

Oh, definitely. The Dutch East Indies were positively rich in resources, from oil to natural rubber, that the Japanese desperately needed. And the British Raj was definitely a war goal for the Japanese Empire, something they argued over with the Germans, who sought to take India from the British eventually. They reached a compromise, putting India in the Japanese sphere. Plus, the British sphere of influence in China was... well, basically everything of value in China, so they needed to remove the British and take over.
If they don't then we see them try to do basically everything possible to end the war in China within the next two years, when they can't do that China become a even bloodier quagmire. If Japan doesn't peace out their troops will still be fighting there by the end of the decade. There's still a chance for the Second Sino-Japanese War to remain separate from the European War.
Which is why it boggles my mind they decided to engage in a two-front war, bringing in the resource-rich Americans.
If they still attack the Dutch and the British, we'd see more success with some of their initial offensives. How long the Americans can stay out of the war I don't know. Enough ships get sunk by German subs, or something else would probably eventually drag them in. The war would be longer and a lot more people would die but the end result would be the same.
Admittedly, that would depend on how carefully Japan played its cards. It could play the game and keep the US out of the war long enough to hold on to its gains, or fate could turn against them in an instant and the US gets the casus belli it needs, at which point Japan is slowly ground to dirt.
 
I feel that Japan does best ignoring Nazi Germany, too far away for aid or trade. Only advantage they got out of the Pact of Steel was to get Italy and lesser extent Germany from selling arms to the KMT, and be a threat to the USSR, that went away in 1939 with the M-R agreement

They could have left the PoS in 1940. After getting French Indochina, they don't need the Germans anymore.

Then they could try to co-opt the Dutch after 1840 before going with invasion, too
Are you saying they could avoid war with Britain as well?
 
No, still kick the British and Dutch, leave the P.I. alone

Will FDR like it?

Not at all.

But he can't get a DoW over it.

He doesn't need to. He doesn't even need to order the engagement of Japanese ships on sight, as was happening in the Atlantic. Simply having US forces shadowing Japanese units, reporting their position and course in clear, will result in de facto war very rapidly.
 
He doesn't need to. He doesn't even need to order the engagement of Japanese ships on sight, as was happening in the Atlantic. Simply having US forces shadowing Japanese units, reporting their position and course in clear, will result in de facto war very rapidly.
That would be deliberately provocative, something his opponents won't hesitate to use. What he needs is a clear, unambiguous, unprovoked attack on an American base or American territory.
 
I feel that Japan does best ignoring Nazi Germany, too far away for aid or trade. Only advantage they got out of the Pact of Steel was to get Italy and lesser extent Germany from selling arms to the KMT, and be a threat to the USSR, that went away in 1939 with the M-R agreement

They could have left the PoS in 1940. After getting French Indochina, they don't need the Germans anymore.

M, the date and sequence of events in OTL is rather different than you indicate

Japan's first pact with Nazi Germany was signed in late 1936 by Japan and Germany only and was very specifically against Soviet Russia as was seen by it's title "Anti-Commintern". (Aside: other mainly Fascist states joined later)

The actual "Pact of Steel" was signed by Germany and Italy only in May 1939.
Hitler did court the Japanese to sign but they refused for much the reasons you suggested.

The Molotov - Ribbentrop pact in August 39 certainly questioned the Anti Commintern terms
but in November 1939, Germany and Japan signed the "Agreement for Cultural Cooperation between Japan and Germany", which restored the "reluctant alliance" between them

Of course the Nazi successes versus France in May - July 1940 allowed the Japanese to pressure the new Vichy government over French indochIna
The actual terms were agreed by Vichy (and implicitly Berlin) in August but before the "peaceful" occupation was implemented fighting broke out on the ground in late September 1940 without any formal orders or declaration of war. The IJA was not exactly well disciplined ;)

This practical cooperation brought the Japanese fully back to the Nazi table again.
This resulted in Japan and Germany and Italy signing the "Tripartite Pact" in late September,
in fact the very day after the fighting was stopped in FIC though whether that was significant I don't know
(Aside: again a series of other Nazi sympathizer/puppet governments eventually signed this Pact somewhat blurring its name)

From the above it was seems that Imperial Japan thought it needed Nazi Germany distinctly more than you suggest
and that in the period before July 41 there was no window for Japan to cut these links

After that is another matter of course ...

BTW apologies for the multiple edits to tidy up my text. An old nerve condition has returned and is bollixing up my hand-eye coordination AGAIN :cryingface:
 
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Ramontxo

Donor
Let the government take control of the Army (ASB by this point I know) stand back in China and agree with FDR to go back to Manchuria. Let the Americans concentrate in Nazi Germany. Basically to win the game the best strategy is not to play it.
 
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Ramontxo

Donor
And if you are not that comfortable with a victorious URSS as a neighbor you may convince your Army leadership (at least the senior ones) that it is time cutting war expenses and start modernizing. You have a good aircraft industry, and even better if they are not going to fight the Anglo-Saxons. Instead of churning out light tanks and fighters and bombers without self-sealing tanks take time and money to upgrade your industry. And international agreement with the USA and the UK recognising your new borders will go very far towards getting them into protecting you after the war. But as I said before all of this would require a sensible government in control of their armed forces so, sadly ASB
 
He doesn't need to. He doesn't even need to order the engagement of Japanese ships on sight, as was happening in the Atlantic. Simply having US forces shadowing Japanese units, reporting their position and course in clear, will result in de facto war very rapidly.

No War from USS Panay
 
What happens if the Japanese only attack the Dutch East Indies and leave England and America alone? In December, 1941 does Churchill really want another war? How can FDR justify a declaration of war based upon Japan attacking only the Dutch East Indies?

Churchill would take the opportunity to concentrate on Europe. FDR would concentrate on making America the Arsenal of Democracy. Even if American ships shadow Japanese ships, the Japanese will easily and quickly conquer the Dutch East Indies.
 
Japan would be putting its head in a noose that either US or UK could tighten any time they chose. The had to eliminate Singapore and the US Philippine bases to ensure that oil would flow unhindered.

Besides - with the Dutch Queen and Government in Exile living in the UK there is no way Churchill could not intervene to support a friendly power. Remember this is the man who halted a campaign that could have cleared the Italians from Africa in favour of a doomed intervention in Greece.
 
That would be deliberately provocative, something his opponents won't hesitate to use. What he needs is a clear, unambiguous, unprovoked attack on an American base or American territory.

Roosevelt had already issued the "Shoot on Sight" order had been issued to all US Pacific forces. No one in Congress offered a vote to abbrogate that.

It only a matter of days before the standing US air and naval patrols, already underway are exchanging fires with Japanese.

Congress endorsed the Exclusion or Nuetrality Zone in the Western Atlantic. I can't see any reason they would not support the same surrounding the Phillipineslands. This would make it extremely difficult for Japan & very unlikely they would comply

The US, Dutch, and Commonwealth already had been methodically sharing Intel on the Japanese military. MacArthur & Admiral Phillips had met 6 Dec for joint war planning.
 
What happens if the Japanese only attack the Dutch East Indies and leave England and America alone? In December, 1941 does Churchill really want another war? How can FDR justify a declaration of war based upon Japan attacking only the Dutch East Indies?

....

The Japanese had been disrupting US trade in China for four years. Their occupation of FIC disrupted the Global rubber trade, & gave the Japanese control of the Mekong rice exports. The US could not sit idle whlie Japan screwed around further with US global trade.
 
...what is the best she can do at war's end and how do you think the war ends?

The question is how. Is Japan avoiding Pearl Harbour by not going for Southern Indochina and avoid the oil embargo, or is this post-oil embargo? Pre-Oil Japan has no need, but there still is the question of what can be to cut off Chinese supplies without getting the U.S to cut off their oil. Post-Oil Embargo Japan would be forced into an earlier Ichi-go plan where they have to "win" in China and do so quickly, attacking anywhere else would be completely pointless as no Pearl Harbour means a fight with the U.S, on less favorable terms.
 
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