If Italy declared war on the US in 1891, what stance would France take?

Italian DoW on USA in 1891, attitude of France?

  • a) France would take a pro-American attitude because of Franco-Italian enmity at the time

    Votes: 41 83.7%
  • b) France would woo Italy by taking a pro-Italian attitude to improve its European position

    Votes: 8 16.3%

  • Total voters
    49

raharris1973

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What if Spain, seeing the writing on the wall for Cuba, lends its naval bases to Italy or even joins the war, in exchange for completely dropping all claims on the Caribbean Spanish possessions?

Yep, basically except a very strong diplomatic note i doubt that there will be other consequences as there is no way that Italy can project his influence in North America; the only scenario possible is that Amedeo remain King of Spain and Italy form a sort of alliance with Spain and the Hispano-American war start

On the concept of Spanish-Italian cooperation suggested here, did Papal hostility to the Italian state rub off into hostility in majority Catholic countries like Spain against the Italian state?
 
On the concept of Spanish-Italian cooperation suggested here, did Papal hostility to the Italian state rub off into hostility in majority Catholic countries like Spain against the Italian state?

Well Napoleon III based 2 divisions in Rome during the Risorgimento, but they were withdrawn prior to 1870 allowing Italy to eventually move on Rome.

I'm not sure Spain cared all that much and Austria was Anti-Italian already anyway
 

raharris1973

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In terms of raw geopolitical interests, I would think that that Britain, and Spain and most Caribbean littoral states would have the most concern to be careful to not antagonize the U.S., because they have territories and assets close to the U.S. like Canada and Cuba.

Britain and Spain do have the "Mediterranean Agreements" with Italy, so they won't want to needlessly offend Italy, but I see Britain and Spain both finding excuses to not be able to fill coal orders for Italian warships in the western hemisphere. At the moment, even though the U.S. is a latent threat to Cuba in the long run, Cuba is quiet and not having an insurgency.

Looking at their enduring interests, other than Spain, continental states like Germany, Austria-Hungary (both Allied to Italy at the time)
Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia and even France do not need to be as careful about offending the U.S. since their trade volume is less and France's exposed possessions in the Caribbean and off Newfoundland are rather small.

Italy because of its European position matters more to all of them. Germany and Austria-Hungary are allies (whether they actually "like" Italy or not), and since the US is unlikely to seek allies against Italy, none of the conditions of the Triple Alliance would be tripped. I could easily see German merchant tenders or colliers supplying Italian ships in the Atlantic or southern Caribbean if the Italians pay for it.

I think France could be open to letting the Italians coal in Martinique or Guadaluple or Cayenne, Guiana, if the Italians make agreements to cease hostile rhetoric, trade wars and make understandings that vitiate Triple Alliance commitments aimed at France. But if the Italians persist in the trade wars and don't start to make nice to France in the press, the French will mostly think "eff you, Italy" and refuse to coal or supply Italian warships.

The Dutch have a historic habit of doing business with anybody, so if Italians come with cash and want buy anything the Dutch have on hand in Aruba or Curacao, the Dutch won't turn them down.

I think German and French labor recruiters will exploit Italo-American tensions to mention "hey, if you come to work in France (including Algeria), it is a civilized country close to home, not some disorderly wild frontier with mob rule". I don't know the precise state of Italo-French trade relations at this time, but over the long term, lots of Italians have lived or worked in France or Algeria, with France having no principled objection to it.

So much for the European powers, this leaves the independent Latin American states to consider:

Porfirio's Mexico will probably discourage Italian naval stops in its ports, because of its proximity to the U.S. and trade ties.

Chile would probably allow the Italians to refuel or resupply. So would Argentina or Uruguay. But none of them are helpfully close, they are rather well south of any Italian trans-Atlantic routes.

Brazil would probably just make its decisions based on commercial considerations, so if the Italians show up in their ports with cash, they can stock up. Brazil does not have any realistic fear of US (or Italian) invasion at this time.

The Dominican Republic, Haiti and most Central American states probably want to be careful to heed warnings that the U.S. will frown on provisioning of Italian warships.

I think the Italians best shot of having a local country open its ports to provision Italian warships could come in Colombia, if it has a bitter memory of US intervention in Panama in 1885.

Beyond the question, but how do the italians go about with this war? Are they planning to invade? What are their goals beside revenge?

The goals wouldn't and couldn't go much beyond revenge, an indemnity, or confiscating property. But bombarding some coastal towns in Louisiana to smithereens would be the main purpose of any Italian fleet operations in American waters, not any design of conquest. Also, warship patrols, even if brief, having a side benefit of raising expenses for American shipping in the Gulf of Mexico, just for revenge/punishment.

What do the Italians do here? Seize American Samoa?

This would be about the only territorial hostage-taking or "conquest" I could see the Italians making, because it is so distant from U.S. home waters. It is not really likely, simply because it is also so hugely distant from Italy, but it could happen. If operating in Samoa, of course, the Italians would have to be careful not to be seen as endangering UK or German property.

But speaking of Samoa, it brings up another possibility, of Germany using this as an occasion to press its claims in Samoa to the exclusion of the U.S. I could see the Germans doing some opportunistic huffing and bluffing related to the archipelago.

Italy would have to figure that Germany would be favored to win another war with France. Bismarck was forced out a year earlier. The new Kaiser could see the war to get some of the French colonies. The plan could be to knock out France quickly and then move on to the US. I could see if France losses giving Nice and Savoy back to Italy and some colonies to the German empire.

I see it as unlikely that Italy would seek to escalate simultaneously in two places at once. If anything, with the Italians deciding that honor requires them to do a punitive bombardment of Louisiana, they will at least think about toning down anti-French policies and rhetoric, especially because the French have Caribbean ports the Italians might want the option of sheltering in.

If anything, I imagine the government will issue a statement trying to disuade French investors from buying the Italian bonds that will start being issued if the war goes on for any reasonable period

I think it would depend on how other bilateral issues are going.

What if Spain, seeing the writing on the wall for Cuba, lends its naval bases to Italy or even joins the war, in exchange for completely dropping all claims on the Caribbean Spanish possessions?

The Italians did not have claims to Caribbean Spanish possessions to my knowledge. And U.S. claims regarding Cuba were not really active at this time while Cuba was at peace. I don't think the USG made any claim to Puerto Rico yet in its history, other than the usual "hey, we don't want you selling the island to somebody else" approach.

Yep, basically except a very strong diplomatic note i doubt that there will be other consequences as there is no way that Italy can project his influence in North America;

I think short-term punitive bombardment of the Louisiana coast and short-term harassment of American Caribbean commerce (more to inflict psychological than material damage) would be within Italian capabilities, at least unless every single government controlling a port on the Atlantic and Caribbean shores of America chooses to deny Italians warships entry.

European states were regularly doing blockades and punitive expeditions in western hemisphere waters at this point in history. The British and French did it a bunch of times, but so have minor naval powers like Germany, who, as early as the 1870s did naval demonstrations, ship captures and blockades of Costa Rica, Haiti and Brazil. I don't know where this idea of warships being unable to cross-oceanic distances and shoot and loiter comes from. Italy itself took part in a blockade of Venezuela in 1902. 1891-92 is right in the middle of this era, and I would be surprised if Italian warships never raised the flag or shot salutes in faraway continents at all in this period.

Honestly France and Europe would probably just deride Italy for starting a pretty much unfightable war.

The press is going to say what it's going to say, but I think their diplomats have no reason to insult the Italians. Diplomats speaking to the Italians will probably express understanding that Italy has the right to press for and receive satisfaction, even if they also express regret that the Americans don't provide satisfaction without anyone resorting to threats (and even more express regret over the original lynching incident), and most carefully suggest that the U.S. won't give a satisfying response to Italian threats.
 
I think no other country would see a lynching of 11 people as fair cause for war, Italy would likely be seen as the unfair aggressor. I doubt anyone would support them even diplomatically.
 
One big problem for Italy is that although it starts with a bigger navy it can't stop the US from building one and by the time 1891 rolls around it will outbuild the US basically never. It better hope it isn't involved in a long war otherwise it is likely to see a larger US Navy attacking its colonies after grabbing back any Italy grabbed earlier. If the Italians bombarded New Orleans the US would bombard an Italian city when it got around to it.
 
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