If Israel Captures Both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in 1949, Do Most of the Arabs There Flee?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had Israel captured both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in 1949 (as in, had Israel's War of Independence lasted longer), would most of the Arabs who are living there (as in, in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip) flee afterwards?

Or would most of these Arabs remain?

Any thoughts on this?

Also, for the record, the reason that I am asking this question is because large numbers of Arab villages in certain parts of Israel--such as in northern Israel--weren't depopulated in 1948-1949 in our TL (apologies if the website for this map is biased):

https://occupiedpalestine.files.wor...ingpalestiniantownsinisrael-soonafter1948.gif

mapofofthedestroyedandexsistingpalestiniantownsinisrael-soonafter1948.gif
 
Bumping threads is frowned upon in this establishment, but yes, probably. Israel did a ton of ethnic cleansing during that conflict, so doing it to keep those areas would be in character. Ben Gurion's cabinet actually voted on whether to expand their war goals to taking the Bank but the motion was defeated I believe 7-5.
 
it's likely that the Arabs flee. The action of extremist Jewish paramilitaries and the hysteria induced into the Arab population by foreign Arab propaganda resulted in a mass exodus of Palestinians from "Israel Proper." Thus a similar flight is likely to occur.

There is likely still a continuing Arab population in Israel (after all, 1/5 people in Israel Proper are Arabs). However, due to some West Bank and Gaza Strip residents remaining in place, that population likely grows.

Finally since there is no "Green Line" delineating Israel "Proper" from the occupied Palestine, it will even harder to build a consensus about where the correct border should be established. Additionally, since Israel would view these additional territories as integral parts of Israel, "re-claimed" as part of the Israeli War of Independence, we will likely see earlier and more pervasive settlement activities.
 

I doubt that's what would happen. The modern, indisputed borders of Israel are far beyond the original 1948 borders after all. They were established by the armistice lines after the War Of Independence and all Arabs remaining within given independence. I'm guessing the armistice lines would just reflect Israel's new conquests and the few Arabs living in them would get citizenship as before.
 
Probably. I suspect that the OTL Gaza Strip would get almost entirely depopulated, as the nearby region was OTL, though maybe with some people sticking to Gaza City itself.

Expect more Arabs to hang on in the OTL West Bank, where the rough terrain makes it both less likely that they'll flee fighting on their own, and harder and less likely that the Israelis will expel them. Caveat is that the Israelis will make a point of clearing the Jordan Valley as completely as possible, though it's fairly unpopulated by Arabs in 1948 anyway. Jericho, strategically located and of great cultural importance, is a prime candidate for "local commanders to be overenthusiastic contrary to orders".

This will also have knock-on effects, of course. All these Palestinians are going somewhere; this could well tilt the delicate balance in Jordan or Lebanon.

As for Konrad Sartorius's point...no one outside of the Arab (and, to a lesser extent, Muslim) world really cared about the Palestinians in 1948; they only began to be a cause celebre in the late 60s (especially after Israel won the Six Day War). While there might be movements to get Israel to establish a right of return for Palestinians, there's definitely not going to be anything 2-statey, and, frankly, considering how much modern media focuses on the Occupied Territories rather than the UNWRA camps in neighboring states, I'm not sure that people will care very much. It's possible that greater Palestinian population in Jordan will overthrow the Bedouins and establish East Palestine or something, which will have its own implications, but hell, even if that happened, it would probably just help Israel's legitimacy in this regard anyway, since "Hey, the Palestinians have their own state, right over there! It's on 78% of Mandatory Palestine! That's fair, right?"
 

CaliGuy

Banned
As in not ever.

We don't watch every thread. If they are reported we react.
OK; understood.

Probably. I suspect that the OTL Gaza Strip would get almost entirely depopulated, as the nearby region was OTL, though maybe with some people sticking to Gaza City itself.

OK.

Also, though, could some people in the Gaza Strip and/or in the West Bank decide to stay if they became aware that they would not be allowed to return to their homes after the end of the war?

Expect more Arabs to hang on in the OTL West Bank, where the rough terrain makes it both less likely that they'll flee fighting on their own, and harder and less likely that the Israelis will expel them. Caveat is that the Israelis will make a point of clearing the Jordan Valley as completely as possible, though it's fairly unpopulated by Arabs in 1948 anyway. Jericho, strategically located and of great cultural importance, is a prime candidate for "local commanders to be overenthusiastic contrary to orders".

OK. Thus, what we are going to see is the West Bank (other than Jericho and the Jordan Valley, which will both be solidly Jewish) becoming similar to the Galilee, correct? In other words, it would be a part of Israel but either have a mild (50-70%) Arab-majority population or a large (30-49%) Arab minority, correct? :

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe....png/260px-Arab_population_israel_2000_en.png

260px-Arab_population_israel_2000_en.png


This will also have knock-on effects, of course. All these Palestinians are going somewhere; this could well tilt the delicate balance in Jordan or Lebanon.

Can you please elaborate on this part?

As for Konrad Sartorius's point...no one outside of the Arab (and, to a lesser extent, Muslim) world really cared about the Palestinians in 1948; they only began to be a cause celebre in the late 60s (especially after Israel won the Six Day War). While there might be movements to get Israel to establish a right of return for Palestinians, there's definitely not going to be anything 2-statey, and, frankly, considering how much modern media focuses on the Occupied Territories rather than the UNWRA camps in neighboring states, I'm not sure that people will care very much. It's possible that greater Palestinian population in Jordan will overthrow the Bedouins and establish East Palestine or something, which will have its own implications, but hell, even if that happened, it would probably just help Israel's legitimacy in this regard anyway, since "Hey, the Palestinians have their own state, right over there! It's on 78% of Mandatory Palestine! That's fair, right?"

Very interesting points.

Also, though, could a Palestinian-ruled Jordan try sparking a war with Israel to recapture Palestine? If so, could Israel occupy parts of Jordan in the (likely) event of an Israeli victory in this war?
 
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