If Hitler had not invaded Czechoslovakia?

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Wyragen-TXRG4P

Nope, because Czechs where Slavs, Hitler and not just him never saw the potential economical value of Boheme-Moravia, except Heydrich, to an extent.
They seized Czechia so the Czechs wouldn´t open their own front should a fight start with Poland.

First time I hear anything like that. The most powerful industry in Central-Eastern Europe, a significant financial reserves, enough of military equipment for an army... That wasn't what they wanted?

Originally posted by Mikestone8

Because at Munich we had conceded all halfway reasonable German claims - and within less than six months they had kicked sand in our faces by tearing up the agreement almost before the ink was dry, and seizing a country to which they had no shadow of a claim on any basis of self-determaination.

Yes, and Hitler promised that was his last demand. A year later he comes with another one. Notice also, that in my previosu posts I wrote that Britan and France would have probably agreed to Danzig and exterritorial highway and press Poland to comply. However, the whole Corridor or even part of it would be too much for Poland to swallow without the fight. Let's assume Poland fights and looses. What happens next?
Germany is in full control of Central-Eastern Europe. All its resources are at their disposal: Czech industry, Romanian oil, food, milions of workers and soldiers. Hitler doesn't even have to conquer many of those countries - they become German puppets or even willing allies (Slovakia, Hungary). And now France has to think: he reconquered all eastern territories lost by Germany after WWI. WI he decides he wants the western territories too? Only now he's grown much stronger, and we let him.
Neither Britan nor France (especially France) wanted Germany to become too powerful.

 

[Mikestone8]

Yes, and Hitler promised that was his last demand. A year later he comes with another one. Notice also, that in my previosu posts I wrote that Britan and France would have probably agreed to Danzig and exterritorial highway and press Poland to comply. However, the whole Corridor or even part of it would be too much for Poland to swallow without the fight. Let's assume Poland fights and looses. What happens next?
Germany is in full control of Central-Eastern Europe. All its resources are at their disposal: Czech industry, Romanian oil, food, milions of workers and soldiers. Hitler doesn't even have to conquer many of those countries - they become German puppets or even willing allies (Slovakia, Hungary). And now France has to think: he reconquered all eastern territories lost by Germany after WWI. WI he decides he wants the western territories too? Only now he's grown much stronger, and we let him.
Neither Britan nor France (especially France) wanted Germany to become too powerful.

Well, any attack westward certainly means war, ready or not.

We may also guarantee some other place in the east, maybe Yugoslavia. Whether Adolf will oblige us by attacking it is another matter.

Interesting question is whether Hitler will attack the SU at this point. It will be harder without France and the Low Countries to exploit, and he may be unwilling to leave an undefeated Britain and France in his rear. But you never know with him.

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

The Chamberlain government was never going to take that statement seriously. Everyone in Europe that had not lived under a rock the last twenty years knew that no German government of any stripe was ever going to accept the 1919 German-Polish border in good faith if it had a choice. All that truly mattered about Hitler showing himself trustworthy in British eyes was to leave Czechoslovakia alone. The radical turnabout of UK policy about the German-Polish dispute only occurred when Hitler invaded Czechia.

Also, the non-agression pact between with the Soviet-Union made Germany much less of a bulwark against communism. It made the point of "appeasement" (i.e. start a war against the evil red) moot.

The burning question is whether a Hitler given a more moderate foreign policy approach by the PoD would accept that kind of limited gains, in comparison to his OTL total democidal subjugation of Poland. IMO this is only going to happen if the crisis may somehow result into Poland becoming a German satellite. His objectives re Poland were to control it as a strategic springboard for Barbarossa and as a playground for radical Lebensraum Germanization. The first objective could not really be changed barring much more radical changes in Hitler's mindset than to leave Czechia alone would entail. The latter one might probably be given up in the right circumstances (at least in the brief and medium term) since there were indications that Nazi Germany was somehow prepared to accept Poland as an independent Axis vassal. It once made apparently sincere offers of friendship to Poland if it consented to an anti-Soviet alliance and a borders revision with territorial compensations to be taken out of Soviet territories. Moreover, notwithstanding Nazi racist doctrines, Hitler sometimes showed a pragmatic policy towards Slav vassals, since he accepted Slovaks and Croats in the Axis. A willing Axis Poland would have been much more useful than Slovakia and Croatia to his plans.

It really depend on Poland itself. IOTL, Hitler did not initially intend an all-out invasion of Poland, at least in the immediate. Rather expecting the Polish governement to agree to some territorial gains, instead its members started fleeing Poland.
It is not possible that some opportunists or at least someone who knows what awaites Poland if it doesn´t side with Germany emerges in Poland.

First time I hear anything like that. The most powerful industry in Central-Eastern Europe, a significant financial reserves, enough of military equipment for an army... That wasn't what they wanted?

Germany had a population of +80 millions and already plenty of factories, population of Czech republic barely reach 10 millions today, what Germany lacked was ressources to run its existing industries, which is pretty much why Hitler came up with the lebensraum policies.
One just need to consider the 1941-1943 policies toward the Soviet-Union, which (even to Hitler) had much more industry than the Czechs.

1) What Hitler wanted was a larger Germany so Poland would be more easily pressured, not have troubles with Prague exploding if a fight started with Poland.
2) Lebensraum, considering the location of Czechia, isn´t that surprising.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Nope, because Czechs where Slavs, Hitler and not just him never saw the potential economical value of Boheme-Moravia, except Heydrich, to an extent.

They seized Czechia so the Czechs wouldn´t open their own front should a fight start with Poland.

What, with Hacha's government frantically brown-nosing? Like Seraphim, I've never heard any such thing.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

I Blame Communism, probably because no one has ever made a remotely credible case for Czechia doing any such thing. Hitler was all pouty because Munich denied him a triumphal entry into Prague.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Germany had a population of +80 millions and already plenty of factories, population of Czech republic barely reach 10 millions today,

Besides the obvious statistical error there (the Czech population today shows the consequences of ethnic cleaning and war), population and industry don't have to correlate. The fact is that Bohemia-Moravia was a hugely important industrial region that supplied a significant portion of Germany's tanks in the French camoaign, IIRC.

what Germany lacked was ressources to run its existing industries, which is pretty much why Hitler came up with the lebensraum policies.

What Germany urgently needed in 1939 was foreign exchange. The Czechs also had gold, which was plundered.

One just need to consider the 1941-1943 policies toward the Soviet-Union, which (even to Hitler) had much more industry than the Czechs.

That's hardly a useful comparison: in the USSR the Germans needed to plunder food and carry on an active frontline and partisan war, which would have complicated actually running Donbas no end - and of course the Soviets had the chance to evacuate and destroy industry as they retreated.

2) Lebensraum, considering the location of Czechia, isn´t that surprising.

But whatever his long-term plans, Czechia under Nazi rule wasn't Lebensraum: there was a police-state, but no ethnic cleansing of Czechs. Almost as if, you know, keeping the factories running was the most important thing about the occupation.

Do you have any sources for your claims?

 

[Mr Qwerty]

But whatever his long-term plans, Czechia under Nazi rule wasn't Lebensraum: there was a police-state, but no ethnic cleansing of Czechs. Almost as if, you know, keeping the factories running was the most important thing about the occupation.

I've read that at Wannsee it was decided that the Czechs could wait until after the war. Which only underscores your point that Czech industry was desperately needed during it.

 

[Erick]

Is it a certainty Hitler could have gotten Danzig peacefully if done before Prague?

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Erick

Is it a certainty Hitler could have gotten Danzig peacefully if done before Prague?

Certain, no, but quite possible. I do not think Britan and France would have been ready to fight Germany over Danzig. I'm not even sure Poland would have been ready without western support. To be honest, Danzig and exterritorial highway were rather moderate demands. Danzig did not belong to Poland anyway, its inhabitants were hostile towards Poland, and Poles already had a well functioning port in Gdynia. Exterritorial highway is somewhat more problematic, but I think that was feasible too. Had Britain and France convinced Hitler to sweeten the deal, so the Polish government would save its face, it can be done. Complying to those demands might have been painful to Polish pride, but it actually wouldn't have damaged Poland in any significant way.
How Poland can save face? A plebiscite in Danzig, which Germany would have won. A full or partial demilitarization of the highway. An official recognition of Polish-German border as final. Perhaps some economical and military cooperation. Better treatment of German Poles. Something like that.

 

[Peter]

Chamberlain decides to continue appeasement for reasons stated by Eurofed and France follows suite. Poland capitulates in the face of an invasion. A more restrained Hitler might have stopped there.

I can't imagine that the German economy could not have lasted one more year, maybe less?

Of course. The idea that Germany needed Czechia for its gold is a quite ridiculous computer game-inspired statement and nothing you will ever find an economist backing up.

 

[Typo]

Of course. The idea that Germany needed Czechia for its gold is a quite ridiculous computer game-inspired statement and nothing you will ever find an economist backing up.

Are you being sarcastic?

 

[Peter]

Are you being sarcastic?

No, I'm quite serious. International economics is not modelled correctly in hearts of iron, I can assure you.

 

[Typo]

No, I'm quite serious. International economics is not modelled correctly in hearts of iron, I can assure you.

So like dude, how does the German economy keep functioning without hard currency?

 

[Elfwine]

No, I'm quite serious. International economics is not modelled correctly in hearts of iron, I can assure you.

"Because the German armed forces had rearmed so rapidly that they severely strained the economy, there was a massive temptation on Hitler's part to resort to war in order to obviate such economic difficulties. As he well knew, the acquisition of Austria brought with it not only another five divisions of troops, some iron ore and oil fields, and a considerable metal industry but also $200 million in gold and foreign-exchange reserves. The Sudetenland was less useful economically, and by 1939 the Reich's foreign currency position was critical. It was scarcely surprising, therefore, that Hitler was greedily eying the rest of Czechoslovakia and rushed to Prague in March 1939 to examine the booty once the occupation occurred. Apart from the gold and currency assets held by the Czech national bank, the Germans also seized large stocks of ores and metals, which were swiftly used to aid German industry, whale the large and profitable Czech arms industry could now be exploited to earn currency for Germany by selling (or bartering) its products to clients in the Balkans."

From The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (copyright 1987).

Hearts of Iron I was released in 2003.

So, somehow Kennedy is using as a source a game that won't be produced for another sixteen years.

That's pretty impressive.

So like dude, how does the German economy keep functioning without hard currency?

Handwavium, the same way that the Nazis manage to overcome any other shortages of crucial supplies.

Seriously, where did the idea that Germany doesn't need every ounce it can get its hands on come from?

 

[Astrodragon]

No, I'm quite serious. International economics is not modelled correctly in hearts of iron, I can assure you.

*sigh*

Read Wages of Destruction by Tooze.

We should make the damn book compulsory reading before being alowed to post on WW2-Germany threads...

 

[I Blame Communism]

Of course. The idea that Germany needed Czechia for its gold is a quite ridiculous computer game-inspired statement and nothing you will ever find an economist backing up.

If anything's computer-game inspired, it's the idea that breakneck re-armament can roll merrily along without any money.

To re-iterate what has been excellently said by others: Tooze, sir, bloody Tooze.

(Which means that, should it be conclusively proven that in fact the German's didn't need gold and currency at all, you're still wrong: that's an economist and he's backing us up.)

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

(the Czech population today shows the consequences of ethnic cleaning and war),

But whatever his long-term plans, Czechia under Nazi rule wasn't Lebensraum: there was a police-state, but no ethnic cleansing of Czechs. Almost as if, you know, keeping the factories running was the most important thing about the occupation.

General Plan Ost, 50% of Czechs where supposed to be Germanized, remaining sent east or become workers for the GDR, where they not? 40 years after WW2, Poland and the ukrainian SSR had both a bigger population, despite having ground fighting in much of their territories.

population and industry don't have to correlate. The fact is that Bohemia-Moravia was a hugely important industrial region that supplied a significant portion of Germany's tanks in the French camoaign, IIRC.

Like the Rhineland for example, which the Germans already had. The industries of the Soviet-Union where even more important. Beside, Germany already had industry, what it needed was natural ressources to make this industry run.
To what role?

What Germany urgently needed in 1939 was foreign exchange.

What are the statistics of that?

That's hardly a useful comparison: in the USSR the Germans needed to plunder food and carry on an active frontline and partisan war, which would have complicated actually running Donbas no end - and of course the Soviets had the chance to evacuate and destroy industry as they retreated.

The factories they did seize where thus rather near the borders.

Hitler expected a collapse of the Soviet-Union within weeks of the invasion and its populations submitted by terror policies, which would in theory have put Sovietic industry and those working them in German hands quickly and relatively intact.

If anything's computer-game inspired, it's the idea that breakneck re-armament can roll merrily along without any money.

Breckneck speed? More like half-assed, if anything. It is the Soviet-Union that was putting a major effort at industrialisation, then industrialisation and militarisation in the 1939-1941.

Wages of Destruction by Tooze.

Recycled inevitable-collapse-of-capitalism old school marxisme dripping with biais, not that I am dissing marx or even propaganda works in general.

 

[I Blame Communism]

I note that my request for you to name a source for your strange claims has been strategically ignored.

General Plan Ost, 50% of Czechs where supposed to be Germanized, remaining sent east or become workers for the GDR, where they not?

Ecuse me if I prefer to discuss what actually happened. Obviously national destruction was the eventual plan, so the question is why Czechia was run as a fairly orindary fascist police-state.

40 years after WW2, Poland and the ukrainian SSR had both a bigger population, despite having ground fighting in much of their territories.

To compare a population then with a population now is still a statistical fiddle, however significant. The problem isn't the numbersm it's the dishonest principal.

Like the Rhineland for example, which the Germans already had.

The difference between industry and more industry ought to be obvious. As I say, the Shkoda works did furnish Germany with plenty of armaments.

The industries of the Soviet-Union where even more important. Beside, Germany already had industry, what it needed was natural ressources to make this industry run.

Obviously Germany had industry, it wasn't the bleeding Sudan. The benefits of maximising your potential production, when about to fight an industrial total war, should be transparent.

So Czechia isn't as big as Russia? Allow me to express surprise. Per capita it was if anything much more industrial.

What are the statistics of that?

Being a law-abiding citizen I gave WoD back to the library, but if anyone who owns it personally cares to step in I'd be much obliged.

It is, however, barefaced audacity to demand a soruce after blankly ignoring my own request that you provide your backing for the bizarre claim that the Nazis saw Czechia as having no significant industrial ppotential at all.

The factories they did seize where thus rather near the borders.

Hitler expected a collapse of the Soviet-Union within weeks of the invasion and its populations submitted by terror policies, which would in theory have put Sovietic industry and those working them in German hands quickly and relatively intact.

Right, and that didn't happen. And what is your argument?

You made a rather enigmatic comment which I took to mean that the devestation visited on the USSR and the failure to exploit its resources showed that Hitler was dismissive of using Slavic industry.

I pointed out that the USSR is not Czechia.

And you now appear, unless I misunderstood you to begin with, to have turned 360 degrees.

What are you trying to prove?

Breckneck speed? More like half-assed, if anything. It is the Soviet-Union that was putting a major effort at industrialisation, then industrialisation and militarisation in the 1939-1941.

Conflating industrialisation and militarisation is silly. Germany was an advanced industrial economy when Hitler took control, Bolshevik Russia ghad the beginnings of an industrial economy that had been wrecked by years of war.

Russia was pulling itself into modernity by the bottstraps. Germany was already modern, but it engaged in a massive unsustainable re-armaments programme. The Soviets also re-armed extensively - what of it? It was a turbulent time, military forces were being built up.

Recycled inevitable-collapse-of-capitalism old school marxisme dripping with biais, not that I am dissing marx or even propaganda works in general.

And your argument with his facts is...? Based on such rival creditable sources as...?

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

but also $200 million in gold and foreign-exchange reserves.

Ugh, you do realise that is less than 4 box per inhabitant?

Seriously, where did the idea that Germany doesn't need every ounce it can get its hands on come from?

Same way US was still in the depression in 1940 and pretty much out of it by 1945. Same way UK in 1939 didn´t declare war to support the costs of the Royal Navy since 1919.

Ecuse me if I prefer to discuss what actually happened. Obviously national destruction was the eventual plan, so the question is why Czechia was run as a fairly orindary fascist police-state.

That is rather simply, it wasn´t obtained by conquest but by surrender and that during peactime. 3rd Reich policies wheren´t as radical as they would later become.

I note that my request for you to name a source for your strange claims has been strategically ignored

8 years and before that, I was kinda interested in communist view of nazist Germany. Also, relatives who lived during the 1930s, so when I read on AH how Germany in 1939 was poorer than in 1933, I know that is more than incorrect.

They saw the industry of the Soviet-Union as lesser than their own before operation Barbarossa, true or false?

They saw Czech industry as smaller than that of the Soviet-Union, true or false?

They saw Czechs as Slavs, true or false?

They saw the Soviet technology and industry as inferior because it was done by Slavs, true or false?

Just how much did they dismisse Soviet technology and industry because of that? To the point they lost the fight and the Red Army eventually not only rejected them (Stalin was a bad, bad anti-German racist )but eventually rolled into Germany itself and seized the German capital.

So if they still somewhat underestimated the Red Army before Operation Bagration, I´m pretty sure they where dismissive of Czech industry 6 years earlier, even if they did exploite it to a certain extent.

 

[Elfwine]

Ugh, you do realise that is less than 4 box per inhabitant?

I presume box is a typo of bucks? Whatever it is, that doesn't make it less useful. $200 million is $200 million. I'm presuming that the issue of that $200 million being specifically gold and foreign exchange reserves and how that's an asset is flying over your head.

Same way US was still in the depression in 1940 and pretty much out of it by 1945. Same way UK in 1939 didn´t declare war to support the costs of the Royal Navy since 1919.

In other words, it came from a lack of understanding of the situation Germany is in - in multiple ways, but let's start with the basics.

Germany in 1938 has 1% of the world's gold and financial reserves - the US has 54%, Britain has 11% (France also has 11%). One percent. Versus fifty-four percent and eleven percent.

Same source as I've been using in this discussion to date.

There is probably more I can add, but if this doesn't tell you anything, it won't do much good for me to post more information that your ignorance on economics won't permit you to understand.

This is not rocket science, and I say this as an economics amateur.

Germany is, to repeat myself, having its economy driven to subterranean levels to support Hitler's insanity.