If Gore defeated Bush and 9/11 still happened, but Bin Laden was captured at Tora Bora, what would happen in 2004? Would people credit Gore with capturing Bin Laden and re-elect him? Who would run in the Republican primaries?
I think 2004 would be a lot like 1992. The incumbent President at first appears unbeatable thanks to early foreign policy success. But discontent over the economy and social issues undermine his support and he loses re-election. IMO McCain would beat Gore if he runs. By 2004 domestic issues would matter more to voters, and party fatigue would give McCain the edge.
For this to really mirror 1992, you need the heavyweights (your 2004 Republican version of Cuomo and Gore himself) to decide that Gore is unbeatable and skip the race. Now, I'm not sure you can realistically take McCain out, but let's say he does sit it out. W. also sits it out. Giuliani sits it out. Bill Frist, who would likely get talked about, also sits out. You're looking, I think, at a George Allen nomination ... if you take the 1992 analogy to its fullest conclusion.
He wouldn;t have won, of course. OTL was basically a best-case scenario for his campaign.
2000 wasn't an inevitable win for Bush, it's just that Gore wasn't an electable candidate.
I'd rather this thread not become about Gore's chances of winning in 2000.
We've been through this. Even if OTL was the best case scenario for Gore (it wasn't), OTL 2000 was a coin-flip. Ergo, a basic re-run of OTL would have as much chance of a Gore victory as a Gore defeat.
(Seriously. Every US Presidential election since 1976 could have conceivably been won by the loser with a sufficient POD. It's truly hilarious that you fixate on the closest of them all, and label it unwinnable for Gore. I get that you don't like him. Fair enough. But please stop pretending that 2000 was an inevitable win for Bush under all circumstances).
Hard to say, because the FBI had "noise" about foul play in the summer of 2001 but let this one pass under the radar. Gore would have listened to Clinton's concern over Al-Qaeda more so than Bush, so there is a good chance one or all of the attacks could have been foiled. But think about this. The highjacked planes are identified. Fighters scramble to literally shoot them down before they can hit their targets. Shoot down airliners? That's blood on Gore's hands, not good. So, they would have to stop the highjackings before they happened. But how well does a foiled plot translate to "Gore the hero?"If Gore had won, he'd probably had paid more to his intelligence reports and 9/11 wouddn't have happened.
I think 2004 would be a lot like 1992. The incumbent President at first appears unbeatable thanks to early foreign policy success. But discontent over the economy and social issues undermine his support and he loses re-election.
What economic and social issues? In 2004, the economy was on a upswing and social issues have never been as big drivers like economic and social ones have been...