If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

Trump won on his OTL platform because the postwar consensus wasn't going to last forever. With better management, maybe it could have lasted until the late 2030s, with worse management? Well he Trump considered trying in 2012.
 
Trump running and winning in 2008 would be almost impossible. You have to have the racism of a large percentage of the country whipped up to fever pitch against Obama for eight years, you have to have Putin infuriated at the Western response to his invasion of Ukraine, you have to have the trauma of the 2008 economic collapse (which might not be as bad because Gore almost certainly would not invade Iraq in 2003), and you have to have the additional eight years of Koch brothers funding of the Right, the emergence of the Mercer family, the increased influence of Fox News, the Tea Party eruption, the growth of Facebook, Twitter and the Alt Right and Trump's emergence as a reality TV star (with the special skills of such). You have to have a Democratic candidate with special weaknesses from many years of smear campaigns against her. You have to have a stronger Democratic candidate whose son gets a brain tumor. You also have to have Obama's making fun of Trump, to his face, at the White House Correspondents dinner. Being humiliated by a black man smarter than he was, was the final straw for Trump's narcissism. For ego survival, Trump had to run so he could humiliate Obama in turn and destroy Obama's achievements. This was a perfect storm--an event requiring so many unlikely pieces to come together that one could imagine it was all being manipulated by malignant time travelers or an evil para-time empire that wants us in its pocket (and that would make a good s-f novel).
 
Last edited:
Would McCain or Romney be the "stop Trump" candidate in 2008 in this TL?

Most likely McCain for the same reasons he won anyway: war hero, moderately conservative, as a longtime Senator he as insider connections while having enough of a "maverick" image to compete nationally. Also, unlike Jeb or Rubio McCain has a feisty, aggressive personality that rivals Trump and would serve him well against the Donald on a debate stage.

What are Bloomberg's odds of winning, in your opinion?

0% chance of winning a majority. The absolute best he could ever possibly do - while aided by a recession and too deeply unpopular major party candidates - is spend enough of his fortune on the campaign to somehow miraculously deadlock the electoral college and position himself as the compromise candidate in the House. That said, such an outcome is so extremely unlikely it might as well be ASB.
 
Yes, and both were prominent for a long time. However, after a certain point in time, the "golden moment" for a presidential bid by either of them would have probably been over.
She will have been on the scene for shorter a time, and will have reached highs he did not. He also, arguably, gave the country Reagan.
 

The Avenger

Banned
She will have been on the scene for shorter a time, and will have reached highs he did not. He also, arguably, gave the country Reagan.
Carter lost due to his own faults, not due to Teddy.

As for Hillary, she'd have been on the scene since 1992. That's 24 years in 2016!
 
Top