If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

The Avenger

Banned
The short answer is quite possibly yes, but I don't think he was ready to really do it in OTL until 2011, before which I think he was still a Democrat. The best early Trump scenario is still as a Democrat in 2004 against Bush.
Trump certainly won't beat W in 2004 if 9/11 still occurs. As for without 9/11, Gore and/or Hillary might be tempted to give it a go in 2004.
 
Trump certainly won't beat W in 2004 if 9/11 still occurs. As for without 9/11, Gore and/or Hillary might be tempted to give it a go in 2004.
I disagree. Bush was beatable, but it would take someone who could build an odd political coalition to do it.
 
Like others have said, if Trump ran on his 2016 platform 8 years earlier he would still be tapping into a very strong right wing voting bloc. He'd be a force to be reckoned with, but it's hard to say whether or not he'd win the GOP nod in 2008. He snatched it in OTL partly because the Republican establishment was divided between a multitude of several unappealing candidates, whereas 2008 had a much smaller crowd with (at the time) nationally popular candidates like Giuliani (who for a time lead Clinton in the polls) and McCain. I say he has a good shot to clinch the nomination, but at a time with more moderates in the GOP there could be a stronger movement within the party to unify to stop him as Cruz and Kasich (no moderates themselves) tried in 2016.

If Trump is nominated anyway, then voters would be left with an even more uncomfortable choice than 2016: vote for a shady real estate mogul and open bigot or hold your nose and vote for the Dems who oversaw the global economic meltdown. I could see Bloomberg launching an independent candidacy in this event, as he considered doing in 2016 but declined at the last minute to endorse Hillary.
 

The Avenger

Banned
I disagree. Bush was beatable, but it would take someone who could build an odd political coalition to do it.
I suppose that Trump could try assembling the anti-war Dems combined with immigration opponents within the GOP, but it would be a very shaky coalition.

Also, Bush would be able to attack Trump for being for the Iraq War before he was against it.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Like others have said, if Trump ran on his 2016 platform 8 years earlier he would still be tapping into a very strong right wing voting bloc. He'd be a force to be reckoned with, but it's hard to say whether or not he'd win the GOP nod in 2008. He snatched it in OTL partly because the Republican establishment was divided between a multitude of several unappealing candidates, whereas 2008 had a much smaller crowd with (at the time) nationally popular candidates like Giuliani (who for a time lead Clinton in the polls) and McCain. I say he has a good shot to clinch the nomination, but at a time with more moderates in the GOP there could be a stronger movement within the party to unify to stop him as Cruz and Kasich (no moderates themselves) tried in 2016.

Would McCain or Romney be the "stop Trump" candidate in 2008 in this TL?

If Trump is nominated anyway, then voters would be left with an even more uncomfortable choice than 2016: vote for a shady real estate mogul and open bigot or hold your nose and vote for the Dems who oversaw the global economic meltdown. I could see Bloomberg launching an independent candidacy in this event, as he considered doing in 2016 but declined at the last minute to endorse Hillary.

What are Bloomberg's odds of winning, in your opinion?
 
Like others have said, if Trump ran on his 2016 platform 8 years earlier he would still be tapping into a very strong right wing voting bloc. He'd be a force to be reckoned with, but it's hard to say whether or not he'd win the GOP nod in 2008. He snatched it in OTL partly because the Republican establishment was divided between a multitude of several unappealing candidates, whereas 2008 had a much smaller crowd with (at the time) nationally popular candidates like Giuliani (who for a time lead Clinton in the polls) and McCain. I say he has a good shot to clinch the nomination, but at a time with more moderates in the GOP there could be a stronger movement within the party to unify to stop him as Cruz and Kasich (no moderates themselves) tried in 2016.

If Trump is nominated anyway, then voters would be left with an even more uncomfortable choice than 2016: vote for a shady real estate mogul and open bigot or hold your nose and vote for the Dems who oversaw the global economic meltdown. I could see Bloomberg launching an independent candidacy in this event, as he considered doing in 2016 but declined at the last minute to endorse Hillary.

That's just it, Republicans being Republicans are going to nominate McCain here in 2004, and 2008, after sixteen years of Democratic Party rule, everybody and his brother will run. Presumably Lieberman gets the Democratic nod, mainly because no one else wants it, except maybe a Bernie analogue who comes up short, and may or may not run as an indendent anyway.
 
I suppose that Trump could try assembling the anti-war Dems combined with immigration opponents within the GOP, but it would be a very shaky coalition.

Also, Bush would be able to attack Trump for being for the Iraq War before he was against it.
Trump, unlike virtually anyone else, will be able to navigate that minefield smoothly.
 

The Avenger

Banned
That's just it, Republicans being Republicans are going to nominate McCain here in 2004, and 2008, after sixteen years of Democratic Party rule, everybody and his brother will run.

So it's a ripe open field which is open for Trump to steal?

Presumably Lieberman gets the Democratic nod, mainly because no one else wants it, except maybe a Bernie analogue who comes up short, and may or may not run as an indendent anyway.
You don't think that Hillary would want the 2008 Dem nom in this TL?

Please keep in mind that the '08 recession and financial crisis might not yet be predicted in '07 when the candidates are going to announce their bids.
 
So it's a ripe open field which is open for Trump to steal?


You don't think that Hillary would want the 2008 Dem nom in this TL?

Please keep in mind that the '08 recession and financial crisis might not yet be predicted in '07 when the candidates are going to announce their bids.
Hillary Clinton may want it, but Gore's Vice President would have the advantage.
 

The Avenger

Banned
He ran in 2004 in OTL. The dynamics here are different.
The Clintons and their friends in high places are still not going to want him to run if he's in Hillary's way, though.

The Clintons have much more influence and connections than Joe Lieberman has. Heck, even Biden was significantly trailing Hillary in 2016, and he's more likable and relatable than Lieberman is. (Also, Yes, I'm talking about 2008 in this TL here, but it shouldn't make a difference.)
 
The Clintons and their friends in high places are still not going to want him to run if he's in Hillary's way, though.

The Clintons have much more influence and connections than Joe Lieberman has. Heck, even Biden was significantly trailing Hillary in 2016, and he's more likable and relatable than Lieberman is. (Also, Yes, I'm talking about 2008 in this TL here, but it shouldn't make a difference.)
Hillary will have the keen sense to get that the public will be tired of the Democrats, and in four years (2012), her second Senate term expires.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Hillary will have the keen sense to get that the public will be tired of the Democrats, and in four years (2012), her second Senate term expires.
Running for Prez in 2012 would be risky, though. After all, if the GOP wins in 2008, they'd have an incumbency advantage in 2012.
 

The Avenger

Banned
She was able to run in 2016 in our TL because people had memories of her 2008 bid. In this TL, she won't have a previous bid and thus people won't remember her as well.
 
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