If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

The Avenger

Banned
The dude is already a billionaire. I don't think the "financial opportunities of being President" are going to matter too much to him.
By that logic, though, what incentive was there for him to collude with Russia? After all, he already has so much money that a Trump Tower or two in Moscow wouldn't make a difference!
 
Why would Trump run as a Dem in 2008 when the political winds would likely be blowing in the GOP's direction that year?

In 2008, he'd have to compete against both Lieberman and Hillary if he were to run as a Democrat, and fatigue with the Dems might be significant after 16 years of nonstop Dem rule.

Slightly unrelated, but would Hillary even run in this scenario? Like you said, the winds are blowing in the GOP's direction, and I think she's savvy enough to see that.
 
Concept: Trump runs as a Perot-esque independent candidate in 2008. Up until ‘08 OTL he was more like Perot than either major party. He won’t win (unless he’s up against really polarizing opponents) but how well does he do?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Slightly unrelated, but would Hillary even run in this scenario? Like you said, the winds are blowing in the GOP's direction, and I think she's savvy enough to see that.
There would be a risk of her sitting out this election, but I think that she'd run because she'd still view 2008 as her best shot. If a GOPer wins in 2008, he'll probably win again in 2012, and Hillary might be perceived as being too old and too much of an ancient figure by 2016. Thus, even if the winds are blowing against the Dems in 2008, I think that Hillary will run anyway since it really does appear to be her best shot.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Concept: Trump runs as a Perot-esque independent candidate in 2008. Up until ‘08 OTL he was more like Perot than either major party. He won’t win (unless he’s up against really polarizing opponents) but how well does he do?
Does he adopt implicit White nationalism in his campaign?
 
Does he adopt implicit White nationalism in his campaign?

Let’s say no. I’d guess he’d focus more on trade, taxes and the economy in this scenario (like Perot in 1992). Im assuming the recession isn’t butterflied (which is reasonable since most of the factors had been building since Clinton if not Reagan).
 

The Avenger

Banned
Let’s say no. I’d guess he’d focus more on trade, taxes and the economy in this scenario (like Perot in 1992). Im assuming the recession isn’t butterflied (which is reasonable since most of the factors had been building since Clinton if not Reagan).
Then I doubt that he'd be able to get his 2016 support base energized for him.

I guess his ceiling is 15-20% of the national PV and 0 EVs.
 

SsgtC

Banned
By that logic, though, what incentive was there for him to collude with Russia? After all, he already has so much money that a Trump Tower or two in Moscow wouldn't make a difference!
Just FYI, current politics is not allowed outside chat.
 
Why would Trump run as a Dem in 2008 when the political winds would likely be blowing in the GOP's direction that year?

In 2008, he'd have to compete against both Lieberman and Hillary if he were to run as a Democrat, and fatigue with the Dems might be significant after 16 years of nonstop Dem rule.

Like I said he probably wouldn't bother to run at all in that year.

In fact I could sketch out a theoretical "Democratic Trump" from this sceario pretty easily:

2008: Romney easily defeats Vice President Lieberman with all the problems that are occurring at this time.

During Romneys first term the Democratic grassroots after ensuing 16 years of moderate Democrats ending in disaster form their own "tea party" reaction. Trump begins to take an interest in politics like IOTL and begins to endorse some kind of crazy anti-Mormon conspiracy theory.

2012: Hillary wins the democratic nomination, however she is forced to move to the left in order to win it, and combined with her atrocious campaigning skills, causes her to narrowly lose to president Romney.

With the Democrtaic establishment being further discredited by Hillarys lost, Trump sees a prime opportunity and decides to launch his 2016 campaign under a populist campaign supporting protectionism and bashing the religious right.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Like I said he probably wouldn't bother to run at all in that year.

In fact I could sketch out a theoretical "Democratic Trump" from this sceario pretty easily:

2008: Romney easily defeats Vice President Lieberman with all the problems that are occurring at this time.

During Romneys first term the Democratic grassroots after ensuing 16 years of moderate Democrats ending in disaster form their own "tea party" reaction. Trump begins to take an interest in politics like IOTL and begins to endorse some kind of crazy anti-Mormon conspiracy theory.

2012: Hillary wins the democratic nomination, however she is forced to move to the left in order to win it, and combined with her atrocious campaigning skills, causes her to narrowly lose to president Romney.

With the Democrtaic establishment being further discredited by Hillarys lost, Trump sees a prime opportunity and decides to launch his 2016 campaign under a populist campaign supporting protectionism and bashing the religious right.
Does Trump beat Romney's VP in 2016?

Also, who is Romney's VP between 2009 and 2017 in this TL?
 
There would be a risk of her sitting out this election, but I think that she'd run because she'd still view 2008 as her best shot. If a GOPer wins in 2008, he'll probably win again in 2012, and Hillary might be perceived as being too old and too much of an ancient figure by 2016. Thus, even if the winds are blowing against the Dems in 2008, I think that Hillary will run anyway since it really does appear to be her best shot.

She'd probably get a cabinet spot in Gore's second term. A stint in the Senate plus a cabinet spot and maybe DNC chairwomanship would put her in a good spot come 2012 or 2016.

Alternatively, Clinton just serves in the Senate from 2000 to 2012 and runs then.

Obama didn't win by that much in 2012 historically and that was with Romney being a pretty weak candidate. I don't see why Clinton couldn't go against a sitting president.
 

The Avenger

Banned
She'd probably get a cabinet spot in Gore's second term. A stint in the Senate plus a cabinet spot and maybe DNC chairwomanship would put her in a good spot come 2012 or 2016.

Alternatively, Clinton just serves in the Senate from 2000 to 2012 and runs then.

Obama didn't win by that much in 2012 historically and that was with Romney being a pretty weak candidate. I don't see why Clinton couldn't go against a sitting president.
If Joe Lieberman loses in 2008, though, then the Dems might feel that they need someone who isn't as associated with the Clinton-Gore era to be their nominee in 2012. Thus, Hillary might run in 2008 instead.
 
If we're looking for 2008 third-party candidates, the likeliest folks are Bob Barr, Mike Gravel, Mike Bloomberg, and William Weld (if he wins in NY in 2006).

I could see Kucinich pulling a Bernie and challenging heir-apparent Joe Lieberman in 2008.
 

The Avenger

Banned
If we're looking for 2008 third-party candidates, the likeliest folks are Bob Barr, Mike Gravel, Mike Bloomberg, and William Weld (if he wins in NY in 2006).

I could see Kucinich pulling a Bernie and challenging heir-apparent Joe Lieberman in 2008.
Again, Hillary might not let Lieberman be the heir apparent in 2008.

Otherwise, though, I agree with you that Dennis Kucinich could be the Bernie Sanders of 2008 if he switches his position on abortion early enough.
 
The short answer is quite possibly yes, but I don't think he was ready to really do it in OTL until 2011, before which I think he was still a Democrat. The best early Trump scenario is still as a Democrat in 2004 against Bush.
 
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