If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

The Avenger

Banned
If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

I'm talking about Trump running as a Republican in 2008 on a similar platform to the one that he ran on in 2016 in our TL.
 
If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

I'm talking about Trump running as a Republican in 2008 on a similar platform to the one that he ran on in 2016 in our TL.
That depends on if 9/11 and subsequently the War on Terror happen. Even if it still happens, it's slim to none because OTL his election was sort of a conservative backlash to Obama. If it doesn't, there's no chance in hell.
 
Probably not very successful. America was only ready for Trump in OTL because Obama. (I’m not getting into details because I don’t want to get reported or something.) But without Obama, Trump and Xenophobia would be rejected. With the economy also going to tailspin out of control, Trump could win if he downplays the Xenophobia and focus on economics. But if he mentions it more than once, he’s screwed. America just wouldn’t be ready.
 
Trump could easily win the general off of the recession, but idk if he’d win the primaries. If the Republicans establishment is wiped out from their failures in 2000 and 2004 like they were when Obama was president OTL I think he could pull it off.
 

The Avenger

Banned
That depends on if 9/11 and subsequently the War on Terror happen. Even if it still happens, it's slim to none because OTL his election was sort of a conservative backlash to Obama. If it doesn't, there's no chance in hell.
AFAIK, though, immigration was a hot issue among Republicans even back in the mid-2000s. What do you think killed amnesty in 2006-2007?

Probably not very successful. America was only ready for Trump in OTL because Obama. (I’m not getting into details because I don’t want to get reported or something.) But without Obama, Trump and Xenophobia would be rejected. With the economy also going to tailspin out of control, Trump could win if he downplays the Xenophobia and focus on economics. But if he mentions it more than once, he’s screwed. America just wouldn’t be ready.
Trump could claim that America's economic woes are the result of unfair trade practices, a lot of US jobs going overseas, and too many immigrants taking US jobs, though.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Trump could easily win the general off of the recession, but idk if he’d win the primaries. If the Republicans establishment is wiped out from their failures in 2000 and 2004 like they were when Obama was president OTL I think he could pull it off.
Yeah, immigration was a hot topic even back in 2006-2007, but the Dems won't be into identity politics as much as they were after 2012 in our TL. Question is, is it enough for Trump to win? Is there going to be enough of a White reaction to identity politics by 2008 in this TL to push Trump over the top?
 
If Gore wins in 2000 and 2004, how likely would a Trump victory on a xenophobic platform in 2008 be?

I'm talking about Trump running as a Republican in 2008 on a similar platform to the one that he ran on in 2016 in our TL.

Trump specifically? Negligible. A right-winger like Santorum or Huckabee with similar views on immigration and tendencies towards American exceptionalism? Pretty likely.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Trump specifically? Negligible. A right-winger like Santorum or Huckabee with similar views on immigration and tendencies towards American exceptionalism? Pretty likely.
Didn't Trump have an excellent grasp of where the political winds were blowing? If so, why wouldn't he have ran in 2008 in this TL?
 
Didn't Trump have an excellent grasp of where the political winds were blowing? If so, why wouldn't he have ran in 2008 in this TL?

Trump initially became politically active in OTL as a birther. Without Obama's presidency to catalyze him, I doubt he develops a serious interest in politics.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Trump initially became politically active in OTL as a birther. Without Obama's presidency to catalyze him, I doubt he develops a serious interest in politics.
He might still follow the money, though. Being US Prez gives you a lot of financial opportunities in the future.
 
Trump didn’t really fully turn to his current stances until Obama. Odds are in a world where Gore was president, he’d stick to his business and television career.
 
Neoconservatives, who are fairly internationally-minded, pro-trade, and pro-immigration, would still be a force to be reckoned with in the GOP without the political destruction that was the Bush years and the GOP blame for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Without those 8 years, neoconservative and moderate Republicans would be stronger in the party.

Remember that 22% of self-identified conservatives supported Obama in 2008. Mickey Edwards, who helped found the American Conservative Union, and William F Buckley's son both came out for Obama.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Trump didn’t really fully turn to his current stances until Obama. Odds are in a world where Gore was president, he’d stick to his business and television career.
If a Dem President is in office in the 2000s, though, maybe Trump will get involved in politics earlier.

Neoconservatives, who are fairly internationally-minded, pro-trade, and pro-immigration, would still be a force to be reckoned with in the GOP without the political destruction that was the Bush years and the GOP blame for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Without those 8 years, neoconservative and moderate Republicans would be stronger in the party.

Remember that 22% of self-identified conservatives supported Obama in 2008. Mickey Edwards, who helped found the American Conservative Union, and William F Buckley's son both came out for Obama.
Interesting point. After all, even in our TL, the pro-amnesty McCain won the 2008 GOP nom.
 
Neoconservatives, who are fairly internationally-minded, pro-trade, and pro-immigration, would still be a force to be reckoned with in the GOP without the political destruction that was the Bush years and the GOP blame for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Without those 8 years, neoconservative and moderate Republicans would be stronger in the party.

Remember that 22% of self-identified conservatives supported Obama in 2008. Mickey Edwards, who helped found the American Conservative Union, and William F Buckley's son both came out for Obama.
Neoconservatives would have also been discredited because they couldn’t defeat Gore. People would see them as losers
 
He might still follow the money, though. Being US Prez gives you a lot of financial opportunities in the future.

A quick Google search tells me that former presidents tend to have a net worth in the eight digit range, which is hardly worth getting out of bed for if you're a billionaire already, much less devoting 4+ years of your life to.
 
Trump did try and run to be the nominee for the Reform party in 2000, so I think there is some kind of interest in a political career for Trump. However Trump at this point will likely be busy trying to boost his brand by doing things like the Apprentice.

If anything the Democratic Party will look like a more attractive option, considering they will have been in power for 16 years and will be a very tired party and are likely to be very unpopular. With Gore being widely disliked and with his presumed successor being Joe Lieberman it wouldn't be hard for Trump to take advantage of the situation.
 

The Avenger

Banned
A quick Google search tells me that former presidents tend to have a net worth in the eight digit range, which is hardly worth getting out of bed for if you're a billionaire already, much less devoting 4+ years of your life to.
True, but there is the legacy part--with you having a big place in the history books, having your own presidential library, etc.
 

SsgtC

Banned
He might still follow the money, though. Being US Prez gives you a lot of financial opportunities in the future.
The dude is already a billionaire. I don't think the "financial opportunities of being President" are going to matter too much to him.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Trump did try and run to be the nominee for the Reform party in 2000, so I think there is some kind of interest in a political career for Trump. However Trump at this point will likely be busy trying to boost his brand by doing things like the Apprentice.

If anything the Democratic Party will look like a more attractive option, considering they will have been in power for 16 years and will be a very tired and very likely to be an unpopular party with Gore being disliked and with his presumed successor being Joe Lieberman it wouldn't be hard for Trump to take advantage of the situation.
Why would Trump run as a Dem in 2008 when the political winds would likely be blowing in the GOP's direction that year?

In 2008, he'd have to compete against both Lieberman and Hillary if he were to run as a Democrat, and fatigue with the Dems might be significant after 16 years of nonstop Dem rule.
 
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