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One reason Taft was able to beat TR to win the Republican nomination in 1912 was that he was the incumbent and - despite the disaster of 1910 in Congress - the GOP still thought they looked pretty good.

But, let's say Taft is chosen for the Supreme Court and accepts in 1906, which he almost did. (IIRC the guy OTL died in 1910 anyway, so the President would only have 1, not 2 to replace in TTL.) TR chooses someone else to replace him, but either the persondecliens (like Root with worries about ill health) or someone like Knox just blunders it. (For instance, he was a member of the club whose dam caused the Johnstown Flood in Pennsylvania - they remained quiet about it then but if Bryan brigns it up at the right time in the campaign it could cause problems.)

So, Bryan narrowly wins the White Hosue in 1908, and the GOP is out of power. The Conservative wing is still powerful in the GOP, but at least TR can argue, "You couldn't win without me." So, what happens?
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