If GOP out of power, can TR win the 1912 Republican nomination?

Can TR win the 1912 GOP nomination if Democrats win in 1908?

  • Yes, he'd win and take the election

    Votes: 14 45.2%
  • Yes, he'd win but the election would be close

    Votes: 12 38.7%
  • He'd only get the GOP nod if Bryan was doing well & needed TR to beat him

    Votes: 3 9.7%
  • He wouldn't get the nomination but would win as a Progressive

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • He'd lose the nomination and lose as a Progressive

    Votes: 2 6.5%

  • Total voters
    31
One reason Taft was able to beat TR to win the Republican nomination in 1912 was that he was the incumbent and - despite the disaster of 1910 in Congress - the GOP still thought they looked pretty good.

But, let's say Taft is chosen for the Supreme Court and accepts in 1906, which he almost did. (IIRC the guy OTL died in 1910 anyway, so the President would only have 1, not 2 to replace in TTL.) TR chooses someone else to replace him, but either the persondecliens (like Root with worries about ill health) or someone like Knox just blunders it. (For instance, he was a member of the club whose dam caused the Johnstown Flood in Pennsylvania - they remained quiet about it then but if Bryan brigns it up at the right time in the campaign it could cause problems.)

So, Bryan narrowly wins the White Hosue in 1908, and the GOP is out of power. The Conservative wing is still powerful in the GOP, but at least TR can argue, "You couldn't win without me." So, what happens?
 
Hmm... Bryan is a populist, and he will try to form a progressive-ish coalition that's pro-Democratic. So, it would be fairly close, I think, between Roosevelt's more Progressive voters and the voters that would go Bryan because he appeals to them more.

How would Bryan respond to the union strikes? Consider he's more populistic and is not an "establishment" man like Taft.
 
I think he wins the nomination and the election. hHe gets into political trouble when he suggests entering the war. In 1916, he loses to a Democrat who is running on I'll keep us out of war platform.

1901 - 1909 Theodore Roosevelt
1909 - 1913 William Jennings Bryan
1913 - 1917 Theodore Roosevelt
1917 - 1921 Some Democrat
1921 - same as. otl
 
This is the man that wanted to keep talking about Free Silver even though it was a dead issue and he was told by many Democrats to drop it; I imagine that would be one of the issues he would attempt to force upon Congress, and get his nose bloodied in the process whether Democrats are in control or not.
 
I think he wins the nomination and the election. hHe gets into political trouble when he suggests entering the war. In 1916, he loses to a Democrat who is running on I'll keep us out of war platform.

1901 - 1909 Theodore Roosevelt
1909 - 1913 William Jennings Bryan
1913 - 1917 Theodore Roosevelt
1917 - 1921 Some Democrat
1921 - same as. otl

No, we would likely be in the war by 1915 if things go as OTL. Unrestricted Submarine Warfare on the part of Germany would have mucked things up fairly quickly, and a Lusitania incident is likely all the ammunition he would need to get it past Congress, if by a less than comfortable margin. Roosevelt should find himself with an easy victory come '16, though by again a less than comfortable margin.
 

No, we would likely be in the war by 1915 if things go as OTL. Unrestricted Submarine Warfare on the part of Germany would have mucked things up fairly quickly, and a Lusitania incident is likely all the ammunition he would need to get it past Congress, if by a less than comfortable margin. Roosevelt should find himself with an easy victory come '16, though by again a less than comfortable margin.

OTL the Germans did not declare unrestricted submarine warfare until 1917 and the sinking of the Lusitania did not inspire Congress to declare war. wWhat changes ITTL?
 
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OTL the Germans did not declare unrestricted submarine warfare until 1917 and the sinking of the Lusitania did not inspire Congress to declare war. wWhat changes ITTL?o
Teddy Roosevelt. He firmly believed in entering WWI, and unlike Wilson didn't bother to pretend he was neutral in the conflict. Roosevelt would enter at the first opportunity.
 
I think he wins the nomination and the election. hHe gets into political trouble when he suggests entering the war. In 1916, he loses to a Democrat who is running on I'll keep us out of war platform.

1901 - 1909 Theodore Roosevelt
1909 - 1913 William Jennings Bryan
1913 - 1917 Theodore Roosevelt
1917 - 1921 Some Democrat
1921 - same as. otl

Roosevelt = 2nd Cleveland
 
Amended from Paul...

1901 - 1909: Theodore Roosevelt
1909 - 1913: William Jennings Bryan
1913 - 1921: Theodore Roosevelt
1921 - 1929: James Cox?
1929 - 1933: Herbert Hoover
1933 - 194X: likely a Democrat, possible FDR (see below)

Now, the big things:
- Roosevelt doesn't go on his OTL South American trip so he gets at least a few more years to live.
- Roosevelt intervenes in WWI early and I imagine that'd cast a bit of an unpopular shadow over the Republicans in 1920.
- The above also means likely more deaths in WWI, which could have a lot of serious butterflies down the line.
- I assumed Cox would still run in 1920, although it's possible he ran in 1916 and lost as well, since Wilson wasn't an incumbent at the time.
- I also assumed the Roaring Twenties would still happen to some extent, getting Cox re-elected against I'd assume Coolidge.
- Despite Hoover not getting commerce secretary, I think he could still run with even further philanthropy credit based on the longer WWI.
- Same economic crash, and I was unsure if FDR would still have a career without Wilson, but then again with a longer TR tenure his last name would be even more helpful, no?
- I think this is around the time I should stop speculating because the butterflies want out of their cage.
- I'm pretty sure I fucked up at least once in the process of this. Pre-WWI History is very much the opposite of my specialty.
- Thank you all for playing.

[I'm going to regret this post later, I know.]
 
I don't think that Roosevelt could win as a Republican (as he is too liberal for the GOP establishment) and if he does run as a Progressive (which isn't guaranteed as he could sit out one more election to prove himself right), he'd probably do not as good as in OTL, (as Taft wasn't around to be as unpopular) and Bryan could slip through like Wilson did with a bigger margin.
 
Amended from Paul...

1901 - 1909: Theodore Roosevelt
1909 - 1913: William Jennings Bryan
1913 - 1921: Theodore Roosevelt
1921 - 1929: James Cox?
1929 - 1933: Herbert Hoover
1933 - 194X: likely a Democrat, possible FDR (see below)

Now, the big things:
- Roosevelt doesn't go on his OTL South American trip so he gets at least a few more years to live.
- Roosevelt intervenes in WWI early and I imagine that'd cast a bit of an unpopular shadow over the Republicans in 1920.
- The above also means likely more deaths in WWI, which could have a lot of serious butterflies down the line.
- I assumed Cox would still run in 1920, although it's possible he ran in 1916 and lost as well, since Wilson wasn't an incumbent at the time.
- I also assumed the Roaring Twenties would still happen to some extent, getting Cox re-elected against I'd assume Coolidge.
- Despite Hoover not getting commerce secretary, I think he could still run with even further philanthropy credit based on the longer WWI.
- Same economic crash, and I was unsure if FDR would still have a career without Wilson, but then again with a longer TR tenure his last name would be even more helpful, no?
- I think this is around the time I should stop speculating because the butterflies want out of their cage.
- I'm pretty sure I fucked up at least once in the process of this. Pre-WWI History is very much the opposite of my specialty.
- Thank you all for playing.

[I'm going to regret this post later, I know.]

This is probably going to butterfly a Great Depression. A Cox presidency might butterfly the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act or some analogue, and if there is no tariff act, then the Great Depression will just be a Panic or Recession of 1929 or another year. If international events go differently, the US might not go back into isolationism, and as a result, not have the need for a Tariff Act.
 
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This is probably going to butterfly a Great Depression. A Cox presidency might butterfly the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act or some analogue, and if there is no tariff act, then the Great Depression will just be a Panic or Recession of 1929 or another year. If international events go differently, the US might not go back into isolationism, and as a result, not have the need for a Tariff Act.

True, and all of this is presuming WWI happens the same. If I ever do such a TL I might try to have it different if only to create more butterflies.:D maybe have a Balkan War of 1912 or 1913 start it or something in '11... who knows. But I don't have time to think about that too much right now.
 
OTL the Germans did not declare unrestricted submarine warfare until 1917 and the sinking of the Lusitania did not inspire Congress to declare war. wWhat changes ITTL?
No, they began unrestricted submarine warfare a few months in, but backed off following the Lusitania given the effect it had on public opinion. And following the public uproar of the Americans, it wouldn't take much for Roosevelt to turn that public furor upon the Congressmen, who themselves would be emotionally charged. A declaration of war was not though what Woodrow Wilson was looking for at that time, which is why it didn't happen; that and I am not sure he could harness the energy as effectively as TR could.

Now, as for TR winning in 1912.................

William Jennings Bryan would not have accomplished much of anything, again Free Silver being a pet issue, a priority, which for whatever reason he refused to abandon even as others did in droves. He indeed would manage some reforms, but Silver would the one on which he would expend most of his political capital on, even in the face of certain defeat. I wouldn't be surprised if he faced a minor challenge from the Bourbon wing of the Party.

Theodore Roosevelt would have little difficulty in attaining the Republican nomination; Roosevelt managed to mount an effective challenge against an incumbent president, to the point where, were it not for his opponent being an incumbent President, he would have won. More than a few of those who supported Taft could very well have supported Roosevelt given there was no longer an incumbent, and more still, the Conservatives would be divided over who should to lead them in the nomination race. Even were he not to attain victory on the first ballot, there should be a stampede in his direction in short order.

From then on its a battle between the orators, one of which I believe Roosevelt would prevail.


Edit: If any Democrat is going to win in 1920 it would be William MacAdoo of California, who for all intents and purposes would have attained the nomination that year were it not for Woodrow Wilson's obstructions.
 
More than a few of those who supported Taft could very well have supported Roosevelt given there was no longer an incumbent, and more still, the Conservatives would be divided over who should to lead them in the nomination race

Could this 1912 end up reversed? Instead of Roosevelt running as a Progressive from the left, a Conservative Party running from the right, picking/aiming for the Southern Democrats who don't like Bryan, ruins Roosevelts chance?
 
Could this 1912 end up reversed? Instead of Roosevelt running as a Progressive from the left, a Conservative Party running from the right, picking/aiming for the Southern Democrats who don't like Bryan, ruins Roosevelts chance?

No; that split was the result of a split exasperated by the Taft Administration which had finally forced things to a head. Here there would certainly be tension, but it would not be anywhere near as charged as it was. That and the Conservatives lack a unifying figure, let alone one who would be willing to run on a Third Party ticket.
 
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