If Germany Wins WWI, then Will it Permanently Keep the Baltic States Afterwards?

WWI Germany was not WWII/Nazi Germany. There won't be any sort of ethnic cleansing. while there will be some "German" migration to the Baltic States this would be more on the lines of entrepeneurs, businessmen, perhaps some professionals (doctors, lawyers) seeking more opportunity than in Germany. These will be constitutional monarchies on the line of the German system, with monarchs from the German nobility. Most likely the Baltic Germans will be most of the elite, and I expect that, like in Austria-Hungary, that German will be the language of most higher education, serious commerce etc and even if ones home language is Lithuanian/Latvian/Estonian, if you have any education you speak German well and all but the most ill educated have a basic facility in German.

Imperial Germany was not about obtaining large areas of "lebensraum". Actual territorial acquisitions (to be part of Germany) would have been some areas of France/Belgium for border security, likewise in Russian Poland. The Baltics and Ukraine would have been very tightly controlled satellites of Germany, not areas to be emptied of locals and filled with German colonists.

Any "Germanization" of the Baltics would be more along the lines of locals attracted to German culture and language as the way to get ahead, rather than a true ethnic replacement.
 
WWI Germany was not WWII/Nazi Germany. There won't be any sort of ethnic cleansing. while there will be some "German" migration to the Baltic States this would be more on the lines of entrepeneurs, businessmen, perhaps some professionals (doctors, lawyers) seeking more opportunity than in Germany. These will be constitutional monarchies on the line of the German system, with monarchs from the German nobility. Most likely the Baltic Germans will be most of the elite, and I expect that, like in Austria-Hungary, that German will be the language of most higher education, serious commerce etc and even if ones home language is Lithuanian/Latvian/Estonian, if you have any education you speak German well and all but the most ill educated have a basic facility in German.

Imperial Germany was not about obtaining large areas of "lebensraum". Actual territorial acquisitions (to be part of Germany) would have been some areas of France/Belgium for border security, likewise in Russian Poland. The Baltics and Ukraine would have been very tightly controlled satellites of Germany, not areas to be emptied of locals and filled with German colonists.

Any "Germanization" of the Baltics would be more along the lines of locals attracted to German culture and language as the way to get ahead, rather than a true ethnic replacement.
I've got a question, though--does this eventually mean that the Baltic states would eventually successfully break away from German rule and control in this TL and become genuinely independent?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?
 
After all, if the overwhelming majority of the population of the Baltic states is going to be composed of non-ethnic-Germans, then I find it hard to believe that the people in the Baltic states would have been willing to be under German control and/or to live under German rule indefinitely.
 
I've got a question, though--does this eventually mean that the Baltic states would eventually successfully break away from German rule and control in this TL and become genuinely independent?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

After all, if the overwhelming majority of the population of the Baltic states is going to be composed of non-ethnic-Germans, then I find it hard to believe that the people in the Baltic states would have been willing to be under German control and/or to live under German rule indefinitely.

I think that would depend on the situation in Russia?
If Russia were seen as a continuing threat then being a satellite of Germany probably doesn´t look that bad.
 
I think that would depend on the situation in Russia?
If Russia were seen as a continuing threat then being a satellite of Germany probably doesn´t look that bad.
Couldn't Russian rule have been considered to be better than German rule for some/many of the people in the Baltic states, though?
 
Imo, much depends on the eastern neighbor, aka the Russian Bear. And how the integration of Germans, Balts and Russians has happend.

If there are some problems in the equality, then the new Russian gov. may seek to reintegrate them. And I think the potential for that is bigger then 50/50.

On the other hand, I doubt that the various German Statrs would have liked the idea to directly integrate them into Germany propper. As others have mentioned, binding them to Germany and slowly bring them up to be partners in trade (and slowly change them into "propper" German States) may be the way to go.
So we could maybe see an integration after some decades. When the situation has stabelized and the political situation is clear. But again, if the Russians have the eye on them and make noises to retake them, I could see it either beeing allowed or not. Too much depends on the actual situation at that time.
 
Imo, much depends on the eastern neighbor, aka the Russian Bear. And how the integration of Germans, Balts and Russians has happend.

If there are some problems in the equality, then the new Russian gov. may seek to reintegrate them. And I think the potential for that is bigger then 50/50.

On the other hand, I doubt that the various German Statrs would have liked the idea to directly integrate them into Germany propper. As others have mentioned, binding them to Germany and slowly bring them up to be partners in trade (and slowly change them into "propper" German States) may be the way to go.
So we could maybe see an integration after some decades. When the situation has stabelized and the political situation is clear. But again, if the Russians have the eye on them and make noises to retake them, I could see it either beeing allowed or not. Too much depends on the actual situation at that time.

What about if Russia will announce that it will recognize the independence of the Baltic states, though?
 
Will they, the Russians, uphold that in the face of Russians living as second class citicens? I highly doubt it.

But that still lets Germany influence them in the longer run with better governance and economic integration. Because they already hold the upper and middle class with the established Baltic Germans.
 
But that still lets Germany influence them in the longer run with better governance and economic integration. Because they already hold the upper and middle class with the established Baltic Germans.
As far as I know, though, the Baltic Germans don't exactly have a history of treating the Baltic peoples well. :(
 
Given the Russian history with ethnic minorities, independence even with a "German" monarch is likely to be better than living in the Russian Empire. Importing a dynasty was not uncommon (look at Greece at this time OTL as one example). Also, after a generation or so the monarchs will all have been born in their Baltic country and have native speaking ability int he local language even if the court language is German. During WWI the number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states is pretty small, most of the ethnic Russian population there came in after WWII as part of a deliberate policy of Russification.

Strange as it may seem, the Jews of the Baltic states will be better off in this scenario than OTL, as I expect the Baltic states would be moving towards mirroring Germany in terms of laws etc, which would make day to day life much better for the substantial Jewish populations. Yes lots of nasty anti-semitism still there, but better than the local opinions backed by the givernment as in Russia.
 
Given the Russian history with ethnic minorities, independence even with a "German" monarch is likely to be better than living in the Russian Empire. Importing a dynasty was not uncommon (look at Greece at this time OTL as one example). Also, after a generation or so the monarchs will all have been born in their Baltic country and have native speaking ability int he local language even if the court language is German. During WWI the number of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states is pretty small, most of the ethnic Russian population there came in after WWII as part of a deliberate policy of Russification.

Actually, as far as I know, many, if not most, of the non-Germans in the Baltic states actually came to dislike German rule during World War I. Indeed, let me try finding the article that I previously read in regards to this.

Also, though, there is probably going to eventually be the option of genuine independence (in comparison to fake independence under German domination and in comparison to Russian rule) for the Baltic states. :)

Strange as it may seem, the Jews of the Baltic states will be better off in this scenario than OTL, as I expect the Baltic states would be moving towards mirroring Germany in terms of laws etc, which would make day to day life much better for the substantial Jewish populations. Yes lots of nasty anti-semitism still there, but better than the local opinions backed by the givernment as in Russia.

Completely agreed. :)
 
It all depends on just how tightly integrated the Baltics are to Germany.

A series of (nominally) independent kingdoms ruled by German nobles could remain German satellites indefinitely-- ties to Germany will be either informal, economic, or military (alliance) in nature.

Informal ties will strengthen as time goes on and rule under German monarchs becomes the norm. This might be a bit deterministic to say, but we can likely expect both Imperial Germany and its satellites to move in a liberal direction so far as governance goes following the end of WW1. As the domestic balance of power increasingly shifts in favor of the parliaments and the people, we will likely see a situation in the Baltic states where local language rights are ensured, averting unrest due to ethnic nationalism/separatism.

Economic ties will be strengthened as monies from German investors and industrialists floods into the newly-conquered captive markets. MagicalRabbit suggests that the Baltics were significantly less developed than Germany proper, but it is precisely for this reason that investors and industrialists will look to invest in the Baltics, similar to how China and the US are investing in Africa today or how France invested in Russia in the run-up to WW1. German people may not live in the Baltics in large numbers, but German monies will.

Military ties will likely become the strongest reason for the Baltic states to remain under the German wing; assuming that the Russian Civil War goes as OTL, German diplomats will have a field day selling to the Baltic governments in the importance of having German armies stationed in the Baltics to defend against the Red hordes. Even if the Bolsheviks don't take power in Russia, it doesn't take a communist in the Kremlin to want for the Baltics, as we can see even today. People and governments have a funny way of being naturally averse to being militarily invaded, so they will opt for German armies defending the Baltics before they opt for Russian ones pouring across the border. Once the nature of the world's conflicts shifts to one on ideological lines (a la the Cold War), we will likely see a NATO analogue led by Germany to counter the threat of expansionist communism.

Probable support for such an alliance, and by extension, Baltic ties to Germany, are mirrored in OTL support for NATO among the people of the Baltic states.

http://neurope.eu/article/estonian-support-nato-eu-all-time-high/

http://www.dcaf.ch/content/download/36709/528635/file/Zilberman.pdf - page 16 for most relevant info

The borders between the Brest-Litovsk states and Russia are remarkably similar to the borders between modern-day NATO and Russia/Belarus.

Do you see anti-NATO rebellions in the Baltic states?
 
It all depends on just how tightly integrated the Baltics are to Germany.

A series of (nominally) independent kingdoms ruled by German nobles could remain German satellites indefinitely-- ties to Germany will be either informal, economic, or military (alliance) in nature.

Informal ties will strengthen as time goes on and rule under German monarchs becomes the norm. This might be a bit deterministic to say, but we can likely expect both Imperial Germany and its satellites to move in a liberal direction so far as governance goes following the end of WW1. As the domestic balance of power increasingly shifts in favor of the parliaments and the people, we will likely see a situation in the Baltic states where local language rights are ensured, averting unrest due to ethnic nationalism/separatism.

Couldn't conservatism and militarism experience in increase in public support in Germany after Germany's victory in World War I, though?

Economic ties will be strengthened as monies from German investors and industrialists floods into the newly-conquered captive markets. MagicalRabbit suggests that the Baltics were significantly less developed than Germany proper, but it is precisely for this reason that investors and industrialists will look to invest in the Baltics, similar to how China and the US are investing in Africa today or how France invested in Russia in the run-up to WW1. German people may not live in the Baltics in large numbers, but German monies will.

Couldn't the risk of an eventual Russian re acquisition of the Baltic states discourage German investors and industrialists from investing a lot of money in the Baltic states, though?

Military ties will likely become the strongest reason for the Baltic states to remain under the German wing; assuming that the Russian Civil War goes as OTL, German diplomats will have a field day selling to the Baltic governments in the importance of having German armies stationed in the Baltics to defend against the Red hordes. Even if the Bolsheviks don't take power in Russia, it doesn't take a communist in the Kremlin to want for the Baltics, as we can see even today. People and governments have a funny way of being naturally averse to being militarily invaded, so they will opt for German armies defending the Baltics before they opt for Russian ones pouring across the border. Once the nature of the world's conflicts shifts to one on ideological lines (a la the Cold War), we will likely see a NATO analogue led by Germany to counter the threat of expansionist communism.

Probable support for such an alliance, and by extension, Baltic ties to Germany, are mirrored in OTL support for NATO among the people of the Baltic states.

http://neurope.eu/article/estonian-support-nato-eu-all-time-high/

http://www.dcaf.ch/content/download/36709/528635/file/Zilberman.pdf - page 16 for most relevant info

The borders between the Brest-Litovsk states and Russia are remarkably similar to the borders between modern-day NATO and Russia/Belarus.

Do you see anti-NATO rebellions in the Baltic states?

What if Russia will agree to recognize the independence of the Baltic states in this TL, though?

Also, the Baltic states are certainly not anyone's puppets in our TL; thus, our TL's situation with the Baltic states and NATO certainly cannot be compared to this TL's situation with the Baltic states and Germany.
 
Couldn't conservatism and militarism experience in increase in public support in Germany after Germany's victory in World War I, though?



Couldn't the risk of an eventual Russian re acquisition of the Baltic states discourage German investors and industrialists from investing a lot of money in the Baltic states, though?



What if Russia will agree to recognize the independence of the Baltic states in this TL, though?

Also, the Baltic states are certainly not anyone's puppets in our TL; thus, our TL's situation with the Baltic states and NATO certainly cannot be compared to this TL's situation with the Baltic states and Germany.

On the first point, probably not, I say. The people of the victorious powers have sent their sons to die for the benefit of the elite and the nobility, they will ask for their own dividend and in the 1919 elections will vote for the party that can promise them those dividends. A Germany that wins WW1 is bound to move in a liberal direction.

The risk that the Soviets might try to re-acquire Finland didn't stop large-scale investment in interwar Finland,

http://www.thebhc.org/sites/default/files/Hjerppe_0.pdf

So why not the Baltics?

If the Russians choose to recognize the independence of the Baltics, then they close off to themselves an avenue of expansion.
 
On the first point, probably not, I say. The people of the victorious powers have sent their sons to die for the benefit of the elite and the nobility, they will ask for their own dividend and in the 1919 elections will vote for the party that can promise them those dividends. A Germany that wins WW1 is bound to move in a liberal direction.

The risk that the Soviets might try to re-acquire Finland didn't stop large-scale investment in interwar Finland,

http://www.thebhc.org/sites/default/files/Hjerppe_0.pdf

So why not the Baltics?

OK.

If the Russians choose to recognize the independence of the Baltics, then they close off to themselves an avenue of expansion.

Yes, but so what? After all, at least Russia might pull the Baltic states away from Germany's orbit and control if Russia recognizes the independence of the Baltic states. :)
 
After all, I have never previously heard of any large-scale German plans during World War I for expelling Crimea's existing population.

I never hear that was a Plan of German Empire, it's the Nazi who wanted to exterminate Crimea's existing population !

Back to topic
in fact there were several proposals for Baltic

one by German Government to transform the Baltic states into Kingdoms and duchy ruled by local German aristocracies
so the new Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine (Finland also ?) had to serve als Buffer states between the German Empire and remains of Russian
also with several base and of German Empire Army located in buffer state

the other by "All Deutschen" fraction who wanted reacquisition of the Baltic states as new Province of German empire
actually they wanted ALL german speaking parts of Europe incorporated into German Empire, but that's another story...

and a combination of the Two plans were the German Empire expand into Baltic, but left Estland and Livonia as German states.
 
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