If Germany wins WWI quick, what happens to the naval race post war?

Let’s say France makes a series of critical mistakes and get an army destroyed or captured completely in 1914, the BEF is crushed, and Germany seizes Paris in 1914. AH modernizes their army earlier and takes Serbia with one campaign while doing no worse against Russia, Russia still has a debacle against Germany losing an army.

The CPs win decisively in the opening months of the war.

How does this change naval plans post war? Does Germany, with France neutralized and coming off a war with Britain, go for a naval build up to further challenge Britain? What happens to the French Navy? Japan might flip alliances in a few years while Russia and France have now been destabilized, how might the naval situation in the Pacific change?

Any thoughts?
 
Does Germany, with France neutralized and coming off a war with Britain, go for a naval build up to further challenge Britain?

No. Germany had pretty much conceded the naval race. In such a short war, the HSF plays no real part. So, if anything, they may see the navy as useless, and reduce it.

What happens to the French Navy?

In such a quick war? Probably nothing. Remember in the Franco-Prussian war, there were no limitations, just reparations and a territorial adjustment.
 
Could France go in the opposite direction and build up their navy? They know after this that they cannot contend with Germany in a land war even with Russia, Britain, and Belgium helping and have now been weakened further vis a vis Germany with their defeat. In the meantime, France still has lots of over seas colonies and three major coast lines. Might France give up on challenging Germany and become more of a maritime power rather than land?
 
While I believe the premise is virtually ASB, I'll point out that building a fleet is a peacetime activity so once the land war is over German focus will again turn to building up her fleet.

While it is thrown about that Germany gave up the naval race in 1912 there is a significant amount of nuance to this statement. In 1912 there were some half arsed attempts for Britain and Germany to come to some sort of diplomatic understanding, these failed and Britain changed her naval policy fro the 2 Power standard of 1889 to one to be 60% larger than Germany. These developments changed Germany's strategic planning from long term, general war to short/medium term specific war.

As for Germany losing the naval race, what does that actually mean in practice? Firstly they didn't scap their fleet or wind back any Naval Laws such as the one passed in May 1912, the merely decided not to enact a new Naval Law to legislate on further expansion in December 1912. Secondly the December 1912 conference that scuppered the new Naval Law also stated that Britain was assumed to be a combattant in the next war, and that commanders should plan accordingly; its not a coincidence that the Army planning cycle that began 1 April 1913 only had a campaign plan for an offensive to the west. Thirdly the Germans didn't throw everything they had into the Army, they authorised an expansion of 135,000 over 2 years in December 1912, such an expansion barely gets into a double digit percentage increase for a country like Imperial Germany.

All in all, if Germany/CP did win a short war (or even a long war) within a couple of years of it finishing they would move back to long term planning for a general war and begin work on expanding their fleet again, they will likely enact a new Naval Law to enshrine the lessons of the war into their fleet building programme.
 
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