My best scenario for this would be the much debated "East First" with Germany and A-H weighted East and Germany defending in the West. Stir in a neutral USA but belligerent UK and you get at least OTL bow out by Russia, freeing Germany to return West to take on France by 1917. In that I think you get a rather drawn out war versus Russia, it is immense, more pressure to seek an armistice and although I doubt Nicholas will or can strike a deal, the "PG" here is more genuinely peace seeking and less open to revolution. With A-H carrying more weight, really wanked with Italy holding neutral, you get Poland carved to them, the Baltics carved to Germany and I would argue not much further, maybe Ukraine if you want to hobble Russia. Because I am not convinced this war is any easier or the West will be a push-over, Germany is going to be "reasonable" and make peace to the East, likely exhaust out in the West over 1917, maybe drag out through 1918 before the war ends in stalemate by winter. So you get a Russian Republic, the Bolsheviks cannot strike fire but dominate the political far left and gravity the Republic leftward. Elsewhere I argue this Russia feels rather Weimar-esque. Fraught with political instability, economic privation and prickly dislike for the peace. I do not believe Nicholas is forced into exile but he might get assassinated. This Russia is open to either a left revolution or a right coup. Assuming Germany does shift to an SPD-Zentrum-left Liberal coalition dominated Reichstag, Germany will be evolving faster towards limited power for the Kaiser, curbing the Junkers and open to a more cooperative diplomacy, potentially aligning Germany with Russia longer-term, tilting Russia towards Europe and pushing it back towards hegemonic status, as a capitalist nation with huge resources it will feed the Central Powers industrial machine to great profit but also actually be equipped to industrialize and compete as more than an oil and gas pool. Today you might well have a bizarre ascending China versus risen Russia, Germany and Japan as the other poles and the USA and British as oddly neutral great powers on the sidelines of a high friction Asia. In its own way this Russia may be the only functioning "Super Power", but in this multi-polar world it is more first-among-equals. The world now centers on the Eurasian landmass.