If Germany sued for armistice in July, Aug, Sep or Oct 1918 could peace terms be softer for them?

Germany could have had softer armistice or peace terms if it quit a month or more early?

  • Yes

    Votes: 29 42.6%
  • No

    Votes: 39 57.4%

  • Total voters
    68
July or August, yes. September, maybe. October, no.

The Times has been running a daily extract from 100 years ago.

This week's extracts have included speculation about a "7 years' war" and "the Germans, although suffering shortage of materials, are showing no signs of cracking".
 
Unless Germany somehow inflicts a Tannenberg-style military defeat on the Entente an armistice less harsh than the one imposed OTL is unlikely. With the Americans in the game the Entente now has virtually unlimited financial, economic and manpower resources at their disposal. They need only keep pressing until the Germans collapse.
 
The Times has been running a daily extract from 100 years ago.

This week's extracts have included speculation about a "7 years' war" and "the Germans, although suffering shortage of materials, are showing no signs of cracking".

Which is a seriously badly-timed opinion piece, as this was the start of Amiens.
 
Not quite so sure. It usually takes some time for the realization of how big things are to percolate through.

I'm expecting it to be "nice surprise, perhaps our army has learnt something", rather than the "beginning of the end", and it will be interesting to see how slowly that thought arrives.
 
For the Germans if they are willing to evacuate occupied territories, and Alsace Lorraine and mostly demilitarize and return POWs, its hard for me to believe the Allied leadership isn't going to accept that and insist on pursuing more goals, like the occupation of the Rhineland in exchange for hundreds of thousands of more casualties. OTL Germany was prostrate on November 11th, but a September 1st armistice is a different deal.

The minimum terms for the Allies have to be politically:

a) Return of Alsace Lorraine at armistice time for France (to be confirmed by later peace treaty, non negotiable, France will inist)
b) Neutralization of German navy (to be confirmed by later peace treaty, some wiggle room here, like surrendering submarines only)
c) End of German colonial aspiration, largely achieved by 1918, to be confirmed by later peace treaty, nonnegotiable, Britain will insist)
d) Limitation of German offensive military capability (negotiable wiggle room here)

An early armistice isn't going to gain Germany much, but perhaps can gain some defensive capability, like a defendable Rhine, German retains her smaller artillery, but surrenders bigger stuff (like greater than 150mm). Then she has some ability to resume the fight if the final peace treaty isn't like she wants.
 
In a mid August Armistice, American combat losses would be dramatically reduced vs OTL, what does this mean, an America which might remain more involved? Less American influence on the final peace?
 
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