If Germany plus Austria unifies in 1848, what does it look like?

Bonus: Would this Germany better than the German Empire?

  • Yes

    Votes: 91 89.2%
  • No

    Votes: 11 10.8%

  • Total voters
    102
I don't recall this working out too well in France in 1789-1792...


The peasants then were allowed to seize the land. The middle class liberals of 1848 never contemplated anything so subversive of property rights. Had the revolutions shown any sign of going that way, it would have scared them back onto the monarchs' side.
 
If Germany plus Austria unifies in 1848, what does it look like?
Depends on what it looks like.
That sounds like an unhelpful answer, but it isn't.

The why and how are desperately important here. Does the Austrian empire completely collapse, leaving basically the modern nation of Austria to join?
Does Prussia conquer all of Germany?
Is it a Frankfurt Parliament based union?
Is it the Hapsburgs taking over all of Germany?

Your biggest problem with ANY such union is that the Hapsburgs had no intention of getting rid of Hungary, and the rest of Germany had no intention of accepting Hungary.

Bits like Czechia were quite acceptable to both sides, viewing 'Bohemia' as largely German anyway (although the Czechs disagreed, obviously).
Slovenia might have been snuck in as part of a slightly greater Austria than the modern state.

Croatia and Northern Italy would be really, really difficult to swallow.

And Hungary impossible.

So....

Unless we have a PoD and believable plan for such a union, we can hardly discuss its future. Sorry.
 
It will looks like this...just add the rest of prussia & Lombardo-Venetia and maybe a way to buy Luxemburg and Viola....

Deutscher_Bund.svg
 
The Habsburgs certainly are a major a challenge, probably the largest individual one. Getting rid of Hungary in the event of a successful union though probably isn't too difficult. Hungary OTL had its own revolution, which had some temporary success but inevitably was squashed by the Habsburgs as they had no foreign support. While may take a secondary POD, it is possible that the Tsar will intervene in Hungary's favour out of fear of this Central European behemoth. Whether they win or not is probably pretty variable, in particular if any other states (i.e. France) stick their nose in too.

Getting to the point of integrating Austria though is more difficult. I do think achieving Grossdeutschland with an 1848 POD is still easier in stages, North Germany based on liberal nationalism first, which can then integrate peacefully or forcefully the Catholic south at a later date. North Germany would be even more potent than Prussia which proved capable of smashing the Austrians in the 1860's, and here it would be less likely to be held back by the Prussian fear of "diluting" their national character, as the basis of the state would not be "GrossPrussia" but Grossdeutschland. Bismarck may also be less of a factor, which is a mixed blessing in achieving this greater Germany.
 
The Habsburgs certainly are a major a challenge, probably the largest individual one. Getting rid of Hungary in the event of a successful union though probably isn't too difficult. Hungary OTL had its own revolution, which had some temporary success but inevitably was squashed by the Habsburgs as they had no foreign support. While may take a secondary POD, it is possible that the Tsar will intervene in Hungary's favour out of fear of this Central European behemoth.

The Tsar cannot support Hungary.

Hungarian nationalists had close ties with Polish ones, so an independent Hungary is a standing threat to Russian control of Poland. The Tsar may later have expressed regret at saving Austria from destruction, but at the time he really had no choice.
 
The Tsar cannot support Hungary.

Hungarian nationalists had close ties with Polish ones, so an independent Hungary is a standing threat to Russian control of Poland. The Tsar may later have expressed regret at saving Austria from destruction, but at the time he really had no choice.

That's the OTL reasoning; an enormous Germany forming on his western border may trump the threat of Polish nationalism in his mind. Or perhaps not, this is why I said there may need to be a secondary POD.
 
That's the OTL reasoning; an enormous Germany forming on his western border may trump the threat of Polish nationalism in his mind. Or perhaps not, this is why I said there may need to be a secondary POD.


But of course Hungary is likely to be allied with the Greater Germany. And while Prussia would probably object to supporting Polish nationalism, she'll bee nowhere near as dominant as in OTL's /Reich.
 
But of course Hungary is likely to be allied with the Greater Germany. And while Prussia would probably object to supporting Polish nationalism, she'll bee nowhere near as dominant as in OTL's /Reich.

Hungary being allied to Germany is not a given, if this 1848 Germany includes the Habsburgs. If they try and retain all their holdings Hungary is going to try and bolt, and more to the point the majority of the rest of Germany will be opposed to fully integrating Hungary into itself. If this Germany can successfully compromise with the Habsburgs and Hungarians, leaving Hungary out of Germany but within the German sphere, all well and good. If this doesn't happen though I do see some potential for Russian intervention, if they themselves see an opportunity to weaken this new Great Power. This is yet another issue that would need to be worked out in the exact scenario being proposed, as there are a wide variety of different outcomes from 1848 Germany.
 
Hungary being allied to Germany is not a given, if this 1848 Germany includes the Habsburgs.

Where else can Hungary go? She's busy oppressing several million Slavs, so can't ally with Russia. As France is too far away to be any real help, where's left but Germany?
 
Where else can Hungary go? She's busy oppressing several million Slavs, so can't ally with Russia. As France is too far away to be any real help, where's left but Germany?

Oppressing Slavs was a neighbourhood activity; every independent country in Eastern Europe did it. Russia's role as champion of the Slavs was always more than a little inconsistent, even in 1914. How many times did Russia allow one of its Balkan Brothers get exploited or invaded by non Slavs? In 1848 this was even more pronounced, given that not 40 years prior the Tsar was complicit in the reconquest of Poland. Realpolitik always reigns supreme, and Russia will throw as many Slavs under the bus as it takes to clog Germany's wheels, so long as Russia actually feels threatened by this semi-liberal Grossdeutschland. Again, I don't think this is the only outcome, or even necessarily the most plausible possibility of an 1848 unification, but I can still see some circumstances where Russia would support Hungary against Germany.

As for France, don't underestimate it. Alone France would be unlikely to do much for Hungary, but a France that supported a Russia that was supporting Hungary would be an extremely potent coalition. More than enough for the Germans to happily give up Hungary in order to preserve their own state.
 
Alone France would be unlikely to do much for Hungary, but a France that supported a Russia that was supporting Hungary would be an extremely potent coalition.

It took fifteen years even from the formation of the Dual Alliance in 1879 before France and Russia could overcome their ideological differences. And that was half a century later, when Monarchs were far less spooked by memories of the French Revolution than they still were in 1848.



More than enough for the Germans to happily give up Hungary in order to preserve their own state.

Which Germans exactly?

Keep in mind that there are only two Germans - the Emperor of Austria and the King of Prussia - whose opinions matter a hoot when the chips are down. Between them they command the vast majority of German military power, so if they are in agreement, a united Germany is possible, since in that situation it becomes a simple case of "Shut up and do as you're told" for the smaller fry.

If they don't agree, then of course this whole thread becomes ASB as unity will be impossible. Politicians can natter away in Frankfurt till the cows come home, but without an Austro-Prussian deal (or a military victory of one over the other) nothing much is going to get done.
 
It took fifteen years even from the formation of the Dual Alliance in 1879 before France and Russia could overcome their ideological differences. And that was half a century later, when Monarchs were far less spooked by memories of the French Revolution than they still were in 1848.

True, they only found common purpose after Germany united. Not to be trite, but the fact is that an 1848 Germany so changes the balance of power that other radical changes become much easier. If the Wallies and USSR could work together to defeat Nazi Germany, France and Imperial Russia can do so if they are similarly threatened by an enormous Germany.


Which Germans exactly?

Keep in mind that there are only two Germans - the Emperor of Austria and the King of Prussia - whose opinions matter a hoot when the chips are down. Between them they command the vast majority of German military power, so if they are in agreement, a united Germany is possible, since in that situation it becomes a simple case of "Shut up and do as you're told" for the smaller fry.

If they don't agree, then of course this whole thread becomes ASB as unity will be impossible. Politicians can natter away in Frankfurt till the cows come home, but without an Austro-Prussian deal (or a military victory of one over the other) nothing much is going to get done.

This is assuming too much about the scenario. We don't even know if the monarchies survive in a form similar to how we knew them, in particular the Habsburgs. Indeed, the destruction of the Austrian monarchy probably makes an 1848 Germany far easier. Otherwise though, the Hohenzollerns historically were very skeptical of including even Catholic Germans, it really would not be too difficult for them to let go some Catholic Hungarians. Even more, if they are defeated in battle then they'll give up whatever necessary to survive.
 
Where else can Hungary go? She's busy oppressing several million Slavs, so can't ally with Russia. As France is too far away to be any real help, where's left but Germany?

First: Hungary wasnt "busy oppressing several million Slavs". Hungary was busy fighting against the austrians/Habsburgs oppressing them. It was later, after the Ausgleich when they got into a position where they could start to think about oppressing anyone - which as we know they proceeded to do. Check your facts before making big announcements like that.

Second: Where should Hungary go? Why should it go anywhere? It can be independent - very dependent on Germany to keep that independence but i dont see any reason not to. Depending on how the revolution went it could be a constitutional monarchy with a Habsburg as a ruler.

Third: Tsar Nicholas I was very anti revolution and anti polish. I dont see him supporting the hungarians but i doubt he would react peacefully to a revolutionary Greater Germany as well. He was all about legitimacy. Assuming he wouldnt help Hungary because of nationalistic reasons - thats very out of character for him to put it mildly.

ps.
No one oppressed as many slavs as the tsars of Russia.
 
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This is assuming too much about the scenario. We don't even know if the monarchies survive in a form similar to how we knew them, in particular the Habsburgs. Indeed, the destruction of the Austrian monarchy probably makes an 1848 Germany far easier. Otherwise though, the Hohenzollerns historically were very skeptical of including even Catholic Germans, it really would not be too difficult for them to let go some Catholic Hungarians. Even more, if they are defeated in battle then they'll give up whatever necessary to survive.


Why should the monarchies not survive? There was no force in Germany with the strength to come even close to overthrowing them. They made a few concessions because they were initially rattled, but their armies never came even close to being defeated
 
Why should the monarchies not survive? There was no force in Germany with the strength to come even close to overthrowing them. They made a few concessions because they were initially rattled, but their armies never came even close to being defeated

I said, "in a form similar to how we knew them". This could mean several things, from simply different personalities (i.e., different individuals wearing the crown) to a major cultural shift, such as a young King Frederick III who was quite liberal. There's also the point to consider that one or more of the extant monarchies could have been bumped off by one of the others, hardly a new factor in major upheavals. You are being far too linear in your analysis, given just how open ended "1848 Germany" with no other context can be.
 
I could see French support for a united Italy being a stronger thing: while disunited Italy could do little, a united Italy with bones to pick against Germany would be an interesting proposition. Britain is probably going to second this, to avoid a single European dominion as they often had during the Modern Era; Russia is obvious. The Balkans are the big question: the Ottomans would probably fall in the German fold if Russia goes for France, but on the other hand all the various independence movements would get quite some help from outside.

Dunno. To me, it smells a lot like Napoleonic coalitions mixed with WW1.
 
I could see French support for a united Italy being a stronger thing: while disunited Italy could do little, a united Italy with bones to pick against Germany would be an interesting proposition. Britain is probably going to second this, to avoid a single European dominion as they often had during the Modern Era; Russia is obvious. The Balkans are the big question: the Ottomans would probably fall in the German fold if Russia goes for France, but on the other hand all the various independence movements would get quite some help from outside.

Dunno. To me, it smells a lot like Napoleonic coalitions mixed with WW1.

I don't understand the bit about Turkey. It was never involved in the 1848 events, except (later) by giving refuge to some Hungarian exiles.

And of course the first hint of a new Napoleon on the warpath would have caused Russia, Prussia and Austria to close ranks against France. It wouldn't especially matter what Britain did, as she had only a modest army. Expect the French to be booted out of Italy pretty fast, if they are silly enough to start anything.
 
I don't understand the bit about Turkey. It was never involved in the 1848 events, except (later) by giving refuge to some Hungarian exiles.

And of course the first hint of a new Napoleon on the warpath would have caused Russia, Prussia and Austria to close ranks against France. It wouldn't especially matter what Britain did, as she had only a modest army. Expect the French to be booted out of Italy pretty fast, if they are silly enough to start anything.
I meant against Germany.
 
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