If Germany lost?

Ok, so, here's a scenario where Germany and France go to war in 1870, just as IOTL. However, let's pretend that Austria, eager to avenge Koniggratz, joins in on the the French side. The Germans are unable to fight a two-front war, and the Franco-Austrian alliance prevails. Now, I have several questions about such a scenario:

-Would Germany still unify?

I imagine that they would, in order to better coordinate their forces to defend their lands, but I'm not sure.

-What land would Austria take?

France would almost certainly take the west bank of the Rhine, but what would Austria take? Would they go for Bavaria or Silesia?

-Could Austria-Hungary possibly split?

IOTL, the Hungarian prime minister was vehemently opposed towards going to war. If he was somehow overridden, might he (and others) attempt to establish a breakaway Hungarian state in protest?

-If they did, what would the results be?

I would think that Austria, cut off from the Balkans, may do one of two things: A) revert their focus to territory in Germany, or B) attempt to reach out and establish a colonial empire. Hungary, on the other hand, likely would take Austria's place in the Balkans.
 
Germany didn't even exist in 1870.

What's likely to happen is that Austria basically tells Prussia/NGF that South Germany is hers, and France would settle for the Saar. Anything more would piss off the other Great Powers as the precious balance of power is jeopardized.
 
Would Prussia necessarily lose?

OTL, she kept an army in the south east to guard against an Austrian intervention. It doesn't have to win, just contain the Austrians (whose army was still in a mess from the recent instroduction of conscription) long enough for Moltke to beat the French. Once that happens, expect Franz Josef to sue for peace toot sweet.
 
Would Prussia necessarily lose?

OTL, she kept an army in the south east to guard against an Austrian intervention. It doesn't have to win, just contain the Austrians (whose army was still in a mess from the recent instroduction of conscription) long enough for Moltke to beat the French. Once that happens, expect Franz Josef to sue for peace toot sweet.

The reason Prussia won easily was because they managed to capture Napoleon III, although of course they had the upper hand anyway.
 

FDW

Banned
Northern Germany would unify. Austria-Hungary would probably take control of Souther Germany, and Hungary probably won't secede. France get's the Saar, and Napoleon III the time to eventually from a stable constitutional government, in the British sense. All in all, I'd probably mean a very different Europe in the long run, with a weaker Germany and stronger France and Austria-Hungary. Might be bad news for the Turks in the medium run, I think.
 
I'm not sure france or Austria would be grabbing much territory because both mostly border states they are more interested in "liberating" than defeating. The South German states, after all, are only recent and unwilling allies of Prussia. They could wriggle out of a peace setlement with their faces saved and firmly in the Franco-Austrian ambit. For France to take too much territory would likely upset not only the other great powers, but also these potential clients. For Austria to take much (or any) Prussian territory would be unwise, given what they know about respective military capabilities. Much better to have the states south of the Main grateful and in need of protection, and Prussia's establishment havoing been knocked off its pedestal.

Of course this is relying on the political wisdom of Napoleon III.
 
I have 1 more question for you guys:

-How would Otto Von Bismarck react to a Prussian/German defeat and loss of territory?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I don't know how much land Prussia would lose, but probably some to France. Also the North German Federation would be broken, and some princes that lost out in the Austro- German war might be restored. A South German Federation under Bavaria is possible.
 
The reason Prussia won easily was because they managed to capture Napoleon III, although of course they had the upper hand anyway.


After losing Sedan, Nap III would be deposed anyway, even if not taken prisoner. It would make no difference to the course of the war.
 
Didn't Russia have a deal with the NGF so that in the event of Austrian intervention in the war with France, Russia would attack into Galicia?
 
I could see Napoleon III wanting another go at Luxembourg.

Italy also has to be factored in - French troops are still protecting Rome and forcing Italy to be governed from Florence, IIRC

If Russia did attack Austria-Hungary (1866 brought about the Ausgleich, so we can't just speak of Austria anymore) then you have the odd situation of Hungary perhaps rebelling against a foolish policy in Vienna, and finding themselves on the same side as Russian invaders.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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