If Germany had unified in 1848, what would its foreign policy have looked like?

CaliGuy

Banned
If Germany had unified in 1848, what would its foreign policy have looked like?

Indeed, would it have focused on trying to annex the German-majority parts of Alsace-Lorraine? Also, what about annexing the German-majority parts of Switzerland? In addition to this, if Austria would have stayed out of this unified Germany, might this unified Germany want to dismember Austria and annex the German-majority and perhaps Czech-majority parts of it?

Also, would this Germany have wanted Lebensraum and/or a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe? Indeed, German emigration to the United States--possibly in part due to a lack of available land in Germany--would have almost certainly been a significant political issue in Germany sooner or later in this TL.

In addition to this, would this Germany have wanted to acquire colonies abroad? If so, which ones?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
I don't think they'd go for eastern European lands for living space. Now if someone in the East picks on them, they'll want compensation or a sphere of influence, but that's different.

Africa sounds nice

This Germany would probably be too liberal for my tastes honestly.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I don't think they'd go for eastern European lands for living space. Now if someone in the East picks on them, they'll want compensation or a sphere of influence, but that's different.

So, they wouldn't be interested in Eastern European living space even after large numbers of Germans begin emigrating?

Africa sounds nice

Where exactly in Africa?

This Germany would probably be too liberal for my tastes honestly.

It depends on who is in charge of it, I suppose.
 
It will depend on which type of revolution we're talking about. Simple survival would be a good start for a republican government.
 
Well the 1850's and 60's OTL saw a lot of aggressive foreign policy by Napoleon III, which no unified Germany is ever going to be too pleased about; as such, I'd expect the Ottoman Empire, Western Hemisphere, and whatnot to be a factor in Berlin's FP TTL. Or alternatively, France seeing their strong neighbor will be more wary of throwing around their weight abroad.
 
Assuming Germany being a kinda Liberal Prussian-led monarchy expect some tensions in the East, Russia wouldn't like an ideologically incompatible strong neighbor, the Habsburg Empire (if it exists) would also get mad at having its premier position in Germany usurped.

France can either be natural allies or downright hostile depending on the inner affairs and diplomacy of both countries during the 1850s, I agree that Italy would be a ally, both share the same founding myth of 1848 and mutual animosity with the Austrian eagle, Britain is a wild card, it'll depending on the ambitions of the German regime.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
First off, is this Germany Klein or Groß?
Klein, presumably. After all, I honestly don't see Austria parting with Hungary and I don't see a Germany which encompasses Hungary as being realistic.

Assuming Germany being a kinda Liberal Prussian-led monarchy expect some tensions in the East, Russia wouldn't like an ideologically incompatible strong neighbor, the Habsburg Empire (if it exists) would also get mad at having its premier position in Germany usurped.

France can either be natural allies or downright hostile depending on the inner affairs and diplomacy of both countries during the 1850s, I agree that Italy would be a ally, both share the same founding myth of 1848 and mutual animosity with the Austrian eagle, Britain is a wild card, it'll depending on the ambitions of the German regime.
In regards to France, France and Germany could have a mutual interest in the breakup of Belgium; indeed, would France and Germany be willing to start an aggressive war against Belgium?

As for Russia and Austria, is Germany going to be sponsoring separatist movements in both of these countries?

Well the 1850's and 60's OTL saw a lot of aggressive foreign policy by Napoleon III, which no unified Germany is ever going to be too pleased about; as such, I'd expect the Ottoman Empire, Western Hemisphere, and whatnot to be a factor in Berlin's FP TTL. Or alternatively, France seeing their strong neighbor will be more wary of throwing around their weight abroad.

Why exactly would the Western Hemisphere be relevant here?
 
I can imagine scenarios where a successful German reunification as a result of 1848, whether as a constitutional monarchy not structurally very different from OTL's Second Reich or as some kind of a republic, is perfectly compatible with positive Franco-German relations. I can equally imagine scenarios where France and Germany get locked in more conflict earlier. Everything depends on the circumstances of German unification, but a setting where France and Germany are able to position themselves as natural allies against the forces of reaction could encourage more cooperation earlier. European integration in the 19th century?

Regarding emigration, it might plausibly be less significant than OTL. If you get a liberal constitutional Germany that engages in needed reforms and internal integration, while remaining politically liberal, it's perfectly possible that fewer Germans will see a need to emigrate. If you can get by at home, whether on the farm or in new cities, why emigrate?
 
Most likely one that is like today; friendly with France and Britain. As a liberal democracy, the push for economic exploitation of the East might come in the form of investment and slow development of a sphere of influence. However, militarily unless A-H or Russia come to blows, I doubt there would me a major continental war coming from Germany in this TL.
 
I can imagine scenarios where a successful German reunification as a result of 1848, whether as a constitutional monarchy not structurally very different from OTL's Second Reich or as some kind of a republic, is perfectly compatible with positive Franco-German relations. I can equally imagine scenarios where France and Germany get locked in more conflict earlier. Everything depends on the circumstances of German unification, but a setting where France and Germany are able to position themselves as natural allies against the forces of reaction could encourage more cooperation earlier. European integration in the 19th century?

Regarding emigration, it might plausibly be less significant than OTL. If you get a liberal constitutional Germany that engages in needed reforms and internal integration, while remaining politically liberal, it's perfectly possible that fewer Germans will see a need to emigrate. If you can get by at home, whether on the farm or in new cities, why emigrate?


The emigration would still happen. It was due primarily to economic factors, esp poor harvests all over Europe during the 1840s. A revolution has no effect on that. Note that there was also massive emigration from Switzerland, Scandinavia and Britain (not just Ireland). Only a few emigrated for political reasons.

As for France, it would have to adjust to having a neighbour at least equal in manpower to itself, and possibly (if an Austrian collapse resulted in a Grossdeutschland) overshadowing it. I wouldn't bet on it just accepting that with good grace.
 
I, for one, prefer a liberal Germany over OTL's which started two world wars and murdered millions in the Holocaust down the line.

As others have pointed out, it all depends on how 1848 goes. To illustrate, here are just two possible "Unified Germany" outcomes.

1) PoD less successful Reaction in late 1848, perhaps because no June revolution in Paris. Might result in Friedrich Wilhelm IV grudgingly accepting the crown of a Paulskirche Germany whose internal enemies are weak and fractured. In this moderate context, France may never elect a Napoleonid. This Germany's first enemy would remain Denmark. Austria-hungary and Russia would also be hostile. Germany would thus attempt to ally with France and Britain, would remain on good terms with constitutionalist netherlands, Belgium and of course Switzerland (no nationalist ambitions there, remember they're cautious moderates tip-toeing in a world where absolutism in the East is still very much alive). It would be entangled in Italy. Balkans are difficult. Industrial as well as agricultural interests would vie for internal hegemony and influence foreign policy in their sense.

2) Radical mobilisation early on; maybe a successful Heckerzug who joins forces with herwegh's German Democratic Legion and establishes a Republic of Baden. All sorts of Domino effects in southern and Western Germany, and a more radical development in Vienna, too. Moderate liberals perhaps divided with some siding with Prussia as defender of (a reformed) order. Two variants now:

2a) the Radicals win. The can only do that with French help. They won't give up on German Austria and perhaps be entangled in a longer war against rump Habsburgs operating from croatia. France, Germany and their Italian allies will all have strong internal enemies and be weak thus, with little further foreign ambitions. They'll stand together, relatively isolated within Europe, maybe attempting to forge ties with the US, whom many radical Germans saw as a model.

2b) the moderates win, led by Prussia obviously. Here, France becomes the enemy straight away, and Germany would seek a fast Ausgleich with the Habsburgs and with Denmark because the threats of internal revolts are going to be a problem for a long time. Rather isolationist at first, this germany's foreign policies would soon resemble those of 1) except for its hostility towards France, which maybe they'll seek to counter with a less hostile stance towards Russia.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
The emigration would still happen. It was due primarily to economic factors, esp poor harvests all over Europe during the 1840s. A revolution has no effect on that. Note that there was also massive emigration from Switzerland, Scandinavia and Britain (not just Ireland). Only a few emigrated for political reasons.

Wasn't the fact that Europe lacked sufficient living space also a large reason as to why exactly many Europeans emigrated during this time?

As for France, it would have to adjust to having a neighbour at least equal in manpower to itself, and possibly (if an Austrian collapse resulted in a Grossdeutschland) overshadowing it. I wouldn't bet on it just accepting that with good grace.

To be fair, though, France and Germany could have some common interests. For instance, there could hypothetically be a desire to partition the Low Countries between the two of them. Of course, this is probably more likely if Germany becomes authoritarian in this TL.

If France and Germany do become hostile to each other in this TL, though, could we see a Franco-Russian alliance be created several decades earlier in this TL? If so, does this mean that France would fight on Russia's side in the Crimean War?
 
I, for one, prefer a liberal Germany over OTL's which started two world wars and murdered millions in the Holocaust down the line.

As others have pointed out, it all depends on how 1848 goes. To illustrate, here are just two possible "Unified Germany" outcomes.

1) PoD less successful Reaction in late 1848, perhaps because no June revolution in Paris. Might result in Friedrich Wilhelm IV grudgingly accepting the crown of a Paulskirche Germany whose internal enemies are weak and fractured. In this moderate context, France may never elect a Napoleonid. This Germany's first enemy would remain Denmark. Austria-hungary and Russia would also be hostile. Germany would thus attempt to ally with France and Britain, would remain on good terms with constitutionalist netherlands, Belgium and of course Switzerland (no nationalist ambitions there, remember they're cautious moderates tip-toeing in a world where absolutism in the East is still very much alive). It would be entangled in Italy. Balkans are difficult. Industrial as well as agricultural interests would vie for internal hegemony and influence foreign policy in their sense.

2) Radical mobilisation early on; maybe a successful Heckerzug who joins forces with herwegh's German Democratic Legion and establishes a Republic of Baden. All sorts of Domino effects in southern and Western Germany, and a more radical development in Vienna, too. Moderate liberals perhaps divided with some siding with Prussia as defender of (a reformed) order. Two variants now:

2a) the Radicals win. The can only do that with French help. They won't give up on German Austria and perhaps be entangled in a longer war against rump Habsburgs operating from croatia. France, Germany and their Italian allies will all have strong internal enemies and be weak thus, with little further foreign ambitions. They'll stand together, relatively isolated within Europe, maybe attempting to forge ties with the US, whom many radical Germans saw as a model.

2b) the moderates win, led by Prussia obviously. Here, France becomes the enemy straight away, and Germany would seek a fast Ausgleich with the Habsburgs and with Denmark because the threats of internal revolts are going to be a problem for a long time. Rather isolationist at first, this germany's foreign policies would soon resemble those of 1) except for its hostility towards France, which maybe they'll seek to counter with a less hostile stance towards Russia.

Germany didn't start World War One any more than Russia did by saying they'd support Serbia in a war. Hell, if we're going to unreasonably assign blame for a cascade of foreign policy fuck ups all around Europe, the blame lies squarely on the Russians and A-H. A-H for pushing for such unreasonable demands and Russia for mobilizing, forcing a German and A-H response in kind.

As to the thread topic, is this government interested in Pan-Germanism (sans Austria), and how many ethnic Germans are outside its borders? That could cause quite a bit of tension with its neighbors.
 
Wasn't the fact that Europe lacked sufficient living space also a large reason as to why exactly many Europeans emigrated during this time?

To some degree. In simple terms, increasing numbers of people were moving from the countryside to the towns, but (except in the most industrialised places like Britain and Belgium) there weren't yet enough jobs there to employ them all. This would eventually correct itself with increasing industrialisation, but in the 1840s it just let to futile demands for the "right to work", and clumsy expedients like General Cavaignac setting one lot of men to dig ditches and another to fill them in again - and of course to emigration.



To be fair, though, France and Germany could have some common interests. For instance, there could hypothetically be a desire to partition the Low Countries between the two of them. Of course, this is probably more likely if Germany becomes authoritarian in this TL.

If France and Germany do become hostile to each other in this TL, though, could we see a Franco-Russian alliance be created several decades earlier in this TL? If so, does this mean that France would fight on Russia's side in the Crimean War?

There probably wouldn't be a Crimean War. With no continental ally, Britain couldn't do very much. We'd probably have cut a deal with the Tsar and consoled ourselves by taking Egypt or something.
 
As to the thread topic, is this government interested in Pan-Germanism (sans Austria), and how many ethnic Germans are outside its borders? That could cause quite a bit of tension with its neighbors.


Most 19C liberals were also nationalists - a fact which Bismarck would exploit to divide them - so you probably still get Pan-Germanism in some form, though it might wear a more liberal fig-leaf.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
2) Radical mobilisation early on; maybe a successful Heckerzug who joins forces with herwegh's German Democratic Legion and establishes a Republic of Baden. All sorts of Domino effects in southern and Western Germany, and a more radical development in Vienna, too. Moderate liberals perhaps divided with some siding with Prussia as defender of (a reformed) order. Two variants now:

2a) the Radicals win. The can only do that with French help. They won't give up on German Austria and perhaps be entangled in a longer war against rump Habsburgs operating from croatia. France, Germany and their Italian allies will all have strong internal enemies and be weak thus, with little further foreign ambitions. They'll stand together, relatively isolated within Europe, maybe attempting to forge ties with the US, whom many radical Germans saw as a model.
It's very hard to create a British Republic with a POD after 1832, but if there is one created by Revolution, the Radical argument would be strengthened vastly, because there would be no United Kingdom as a model for moderate liberals who supported constitutional monarchy. These liberals would have no choice but to join the Republican cause.
 
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