If Germany didn't invade Greece, would the Greeks continue the war with Italy and win it?

By the Spring of 1941 the war had largely settled into stalemate, the Greeks had 'won' in the sense that they would ejected the Italians from Greece but it's unlikely they'd have been able to throw the Italians out of Albania entirely.
 
By the Spring of 1941 the war had largely settled into stalemate, the Greeks had 'won' in the sense that they would ejected the Italians from Greece but it's unlikely they'd have been able to throw the Italians out of Albania entirely.

Basically this. What they would be able to do is force that stalemate. The Italian army had been kicked very firmly in the teeth and had been humbled to the point of embarassment. But the Greeks lacked the troops, supplies or equipment to force the Italians out fully. So bite, hold, dig in and make the Italians exhaust themselves, that would be a 'win' if Italy very quietly offered a peace treaty.
 
Basically this. What they would be able to do is force that stalemate. The Italian army had been kicked very firmly in the teeth and had been humbled to the point of embarassment. But the Greeks lacked the troops, supplies or equipment to force the Italians out fully. So bite, hold, dig in and make the Italians exhaust themselves, that would be a 'win' if Italy very quietly offered a peace treaty.
I agree. The Greeks did not have the military capability to eject Italy out of Albania. But knowing the British, they would have gladly supplemented what they could to bolster Greek forces, not excluding British troops.

I think a German rescue, as is what occurred, would have been inevitable. Having an ally either being routed out of Albania by a Greco-British force in addition to any possible Albanian partisan support, while planning an invasion of the USSR would have been disgraceful to their cause and plans. The possibilities, all negative to the Axis include, an Italian surrender to Greece in Albania, further Italian military lack of enthusiasm for the war, embarrassment resulting in the fall of the Mussolini government, an Allies base of operations close enough to aide the Soviets from the Balkans in their war in the East, these all would make it unacceptable for the Germans to just let the Italians get their butts kicked by the Greeks.
 
As the Greeks had thrown absolutely everything at Italy in order to get that stalemate, as they were being worn thin despite general Italian incompetence, and that OTL they were pinned so hard they couldn't retreat to a more general defense line when the Germans invaded, lest they be overrun, no. Not just "no", either: if Italy doesn't throw the towel, they eventually win as Greece just didn't have any decent reinforcement anymore.
 
Lack of German support in Greece automatically gives British troops an important conduct bombings over all the European members of the Axis Powers. British firepower would likely liberate Albania and plan an invasion of Romania and Italy. This would likely prompt Bulgaria to declare its neutrality in World War II and might motivate Romania and Hungary to switch sides. So while Germany may conduct more success in the Soviet Union, Britain may conduct a successful invasion of Italy. This will especially tip in the Allies' favor as America joins the conflict. In the end, the Axis will still lose the war because of Germany's lack of support in the Balkans. Mainly, the best possible scenario (for the Axis) is for Mussolini to not invade Greece at all and instead focus Italian troops on Yugoslavia. I actually made a thread on that topic a few weeks ago. It's really fascinating.

Link: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-yugoslavia-instead-of-greece-in-1940.410873/
 
As the Greeks had thrown absolutely everything at Italy in order to get that stalemate, as they were being worn thin despite general Italian incompetence, and that OTL they were pinned so hard they couldn't retreat to a more general defense line when the Germans invaded, lest they be overrun, no. Not just "no", either: if Italy doesn't throw the towel, they eventually win as Greece just didn't have any decent reinforcement anymore.

Source? Just curious, never thought they had been so close to collapse.
 
I didn't think so either - the almost ASB bit is no German intervention but given the demonstrable incompetence displayed by the Italians then without outside influences the Greeks could defeat their attacks for a long time to come. I agree that kicking them out of Albania is almost impossible as it removes much of the Italian weaknesses.

The Greeks were in a desperate state over the winter of 1940 but then again the Italians were probably in a worse shape. When the Italians renewed their attacks in the Spring the Greeks were able to handle them easily, even making some local advances.
 
I didn't think so either - the almost ASB bit is no German intervention but given the demonstrable incompetence displayed by the Italians then without outside influences the Greeks could defeat their attacks for a long time to come. I agree that kicking them out of Albania is almost impossible as it removes much of the Italian weaknesses.

The Greeks were in a desperate state over the winter of 1940 but then again the Italians were probably in a worse shape. When the Italians renewed their attacks in the Spring the Greeks were able to handle them easily, even making some local advances.
The Italians were not in a worse shape, with the possible exception of morale: they had a far larger economy, and a far larger population, behind that army. Greece, meanwhile, had stripped everything else of trained soldier: the Metaxas line was manned by the greenest recruits, undertrained and underequipped. The Greeks had repelled and countered the initial attack with exceptional fervor and valor, and the positions they had held after the counterattack was stopped were incredibly defensible; but as long as Italy wanted to conquer Greece, they eventually would. They were not literally close to collapse by the time the Germans invaded, but they had pushed everything in that tiny front: but their resources just didn't compare to Italy, and unless the Vietnam clause happened to pop up (unlikely, with Mussolini in charge) they couldn't avoid eventual collapse.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Source? Just curious, never thought they had been so close to collapse.

One source is Operation Mercury by Tony Simpson. It suggests the British were always keen to intervene, but were kept at arm's length by the Greeks until they had no other choice. The German intervention was principally to prevent the British getting a foothold on the continent.
 
One source is Operation Mercury by Tony Simpson. It suggests the British were always keen to intervene, but were kept at arm's length by the Greeks until they had no other choice. The German intervention was principally to prevent the British getting a foothold on the continent.
Which also means the British can't intervene to save the Greeks, because the stated question implies they don't. As a matter of fact, you might need to get even less British involvement to keep the Germans out of Greece, which would be to Italy's advantage.
 
Which also means the British can't intervene to save the Greeks, because the stated question implies they don't. As a matter of fact, you might need to get even less British involvement to keep the Germans out of Greece, which would be to Italy's advantage.

I fail to see how more British troops in the Middle East and available for Compass is a net gain for Italy. If the Greeks can hold on whilst the Italians go full retard in Libya against a stronger British force that's not had to divert troops, tanks and artillery to Greece to support operations there, I'd say the Italians would be kicked in the teeth harder than they were, and Compass might fully succeed in driving the Italians out of Libya before any German support can arrive.
 
I fail to see how more British troops in the Middle East and available for Compass is a net gain for Italy. If the Greeks can hold on whilst the Italians go full retard in Libya against a stronger British force that's not had to divert troops, tanks and artillery to Greece to support operations there, I'd say the Italians would be kicked in the teeth harder than they were, and Compass might fully succeed in driving the Italians out of Libya before any German support can arrive.
Yes? That's not the point of the thread. It's about Greece - which would be weaker without British help. I talked nowhere about a net gain.
 
Top