If Franz Ferdinand survives in 1914, could a revolution in Austria-Hungary later on trigger WWI?

CaliGuy

Banned
If Franz Ferdinand would have survived in 1914 and later took power in Austria-Hungary, could his autocratic tendencies eventually trigger a revolution in Austria-Hungary? Also, if so, could this revolution trigger WWI (albeit much later than in our TL)?

Basically, I am thinking that if a revolution breaks out in Austria-Hungary (in the absence of WWI breaking out beforehand), there would be a couple of areas which would be in dispute between rival powers:

-Italy and Serbia would dispute Dalmatia, Fiume, Trieste, et cetera.
-Germany and Russia would dispute Bohemia (with Russia wanting to create an independent, pro-Russian Czechoslovak state and Germany wanting to keep Bohemia in its own orbit for security reasons).
-Italy and Germany would dispute South Tyrol.
-Germany and Russia would dispute Galicia (with Russia wanting to at least annex the Ukrainian, eastern part of Galicia while Germany would probably support keeping eastern Galicia independent).

In turn, I could see a coalition of Germany, Italy, Britain (if it reconciles with Germany), Hungary, and Galicia/western Ukraine facing off against a coalition of France, Russia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Romania.

Anyway, any thoughts on this? Indeed, is my scenario here realistic?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, I am aware that, in this TL, Russia could also experience a revolution. However, even a post-revolutionary Russian government would probably maintain Russia's interest in both the Balkans and in Austria-Hungary.
 
If Austria has a evoltion that leads to a land grab, the balance of foces would so favor Russia that there would be no war. Just play out WWI without Austria and see how Germany fares

You might get local wars- Romania vs Serbia or Italy vs Serbia but its hard to see them spreading

I don't see any time for a coalition like you suggest to form. Russia would move to grab Galacia before it could form a government, Romania would tak Transylvania and s forth

Britain would be a non factor- her lack of an army means she could not intervene in time nor would she be of much help to the Germans being invaded by the Russians and the French
 
Last edited:

CaliGuy

Banned
If Austria has a evoltion that leads to a land grab, the balance of foces would so favor Russia that there would be no war. Just play out WWI without Austria and see how Germany fares

I don't think that Germany would agree to having Bohemia end up in Russia's sphere of influence without a fight. After all, in addition to its large industrial base, having Bohemia inside of the Russian orbit would pose a security threat to Germany due to its sensitive location (it's literally a salient sticking inside of Greater Germany).

You might get local wars- Romania vs Serbia or Italy vs Serbia but its hard to see them spreading

Russia would want to intervene on behalf of its allies (such as the Serbs), no?

I don't see any time for a coalition like you suggest to form. Russia would move to grab Galacia before it could form a government, Romania would tak Transylvania and s forth

Perhaps you're right about this. However, what if Germany and Britain send Russia an ultimatum to withdraw from Bohemia and Russia disobeys? Could war then break out?

Britain would be a non factor- her lack of an army means she could not intervene in time nor would she be of much help to the Germans being invaded by the Russians and the French

Britain can build an army relatively quickly (in 1-2 years), no?
 
I don't think that Germany would agree to having Bohemia end up in Russia's sphere of influence without a fight. After all, in addition to its large industrial base, having Bohemia inside of the Russian orbit would pose a security threat to Germany due to its sensitive location (it's literally a salient sticking inside of Greater Germany).

Germany isn't going to like it at all but what can she do about it? There's the French army in the westand the Russians in the East. Without Austria to draw off four Russian armies do they stand a chance?


Russia would want to intervene on behalf of its allies (such as the Serbs), no?

Perhaps, perhaps not. Against Romania, probably. Russia is interested in controling the Balkans and getting rid of the local Balkan governments. With Austria gone, she can proceed to phase II. Serbia is no longer of any use and getting at the Italians is a bit har dd for the Russians. They might let the Serbs be disappointed with the hopes of drawing Italy into a continental alliance against Britain



Perhaps you're right about this. However, what if Germany and Britain send Russia an ultimatum to withdraw from Bohemia and Russia disobeys? Could war then break out?



Britain can build an army relatively quickly (in 1-2 years), no?

Its hard to see what Britain can offer Germany. With Austria gone and Bohemia occupied, the very heart of Germany is threatened not just East Prussia which would have to be abandoned. Even if we give Britain two years to build up an army, she would have to move it to the continent. Events would move too quickly. I can't imagine a strategy for Germany in a war with France and Russia and no Austria
 
Perhaps you're right about this. However, what if Germany and Britain send Russia an ultimatum to withdraw from Bohemia and Russia disobeys? Could war then break out?

Would the Russians be in Bohemia in the first place? The German Army would surely get there first, and presumably both the Hungarians and the Galician Poles will be doing what they can to resist a Russian attack. And the German army can scotch any Czech rising (if the Austrians can't do so on their own) without even breathing hard.
 
If Germany is willing to back the leadership of Austro-Hungary then there can be no 'revolution'. If anything it would be a civil war with the forces of the Austrians and Hungarians against the Czechs, Bosnians, Croats, Poles and Romanians. However it would be a short war considering they would just be ex-civilian, especially if Germany joined in and helped crush the revolt. If anything this may end up increasing the power of the AH's monarchy leading to increasing centralization.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
If Germany is willing to back the leadership of Austro-Hungary then there can be no 'revolution'. If anything it would be a civil war with the forces of the Austrians and Hungarians against the Czechs, Bosnians, Croats, Poles and Romanians. However it would be a short war considering they would just be ex-civilian, especially if Germany joined in and helped crush the revolt. If anything this may end up increasing the power of the AH's monarchy leading to increasing centralization.
It could also be that the Hungarians try to break of, but then there'd be three sides: the Austrians and Germans, the Hungarians, and the rest. In any way if Germany intervenes it's a done deal unless Russia intervene to "protect the Slavs", and then you have a World War.
 
No ww1 Russia is far more likely to have a revolution than Austria, the hapsburgs were far more popular with the general public and they managed 4 years of non stop defeats without being overthrown while Russia only managed three while winning many battles.
 
Revolution and breakup of Austria-Hungary is very likely under those circumstances. A world war...maybe, maybe not. There are pretty much two ways such a war could be triggered:

-Germany decides on, and launches, a military intervention to prop up Franz Ferdinand's empire past its expiration date. This is possible, but it can only happen within a narrow window of time (after the first internal hostilities, but before the empire totally implodes). Also: Germany really, really liked having Dualism in the Habsburg realm. They will have very little (if any) sympathy for Franz Ferdinand's actions; and many will see the resulting fatal backlash as FF's rightful comeuppance.

-Germany and Russia fail to come up with a mutually acceptable agreement over the future of Czechia. This is also possible, but nowhere near certain; it's also possible that Germany and Russia reach some kind of a deal. Maybe one recognizing Russia's annexation of Galicia; Germany's annexation of Austria proper; and the existence of Czechia (with or without Slovakia) as an independent joint puppet with Germany's predominance.
 
On your first question, a civil war in Austria Hungary is very likely. Franz Ferdinand was furious with his Hungarian subjects, who he felt had undermined just about any sensible reform initiated on the Austrian side, and who he felt were not pulling their weight. The key question is when he tries to crush Hungary, who will support the latter?

Also, Franz Ferdinand had wanted to give the Slavic population more autonomy as a counterweight to Hungary (one reason why the Serbs wanted him killed -- his idea might have been popular). In the event of a civil war, the Slavs are more likely to favor Austria over Hungary, but some or all might bolt for independence with Serbia helping them. Not sure if Russia would -- Franz Ferdinand was against getting into a war with Russia, which he (presciently) thought would be a disaster for both, so he might negotiate for Russian assistance before the internal fighting began.
 
There's no way Germany let's AH fall apart to revolution or divides up AH territory with Russia unless the two are allied. Why would she sign off on the death of her only real ally if Russia and France are aligned? She'd condemn herself to a potential two front war with no allies and potentially no access to the overseas trade depending on how the Brits are feeling.
German foreign policy might have been clueless for much of wilhelm's reign, but it generally wasn't outright suicidal.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Would the Russians be in Bohemia in the first place? The German Army would surely get there first, and presumably both the Hungarians and the Galician Poles will be doing what they can to resist a Russian attack. And the German army can scotch any Czech rising (if the Austrians can't do so on their own) without even breathing hard.
Good point. However, in turn, this raises a question--would Russia want Germany to withdraw from Czechia so that an independent, pro-Russian state can be set up there?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
No ww1 Russia is far more likely to have a revolution than Austria, the hapsburgs were far more popular with the general public and they managed 4 years of non stop defeats without being overthrown while Russia only managed three while winning many battles.
Perhaps. However, as I wrote above, even a post-revolutionary Russian government would probably continue to have interests in both Austria-Hungary and the Balkans.

Revolution and breakup of Austria-Hungary is very likely under those circumstances. A world war...maybe, maybe not. There are pretty much two ways such a war could be triggered:

-Germany decides on, and launches, a military intervention to prop up Franz Ferdinand's empire past its expiration date. This is possible, but it can only happen within a narrow window of time (after the first internal hostilities, but before the empire totally implodes). Also: Germany really, really liked having Dualism in the Habsburg realm. They will have very little (if any) sympathy for Franz Ferdinand's actions; and many will see the resulting fatal backlash as FF's rightful comeuppance.

Why exactly did Germany really like Dualism?

-Germany and Russia fail to come up with a mutually acceptable agreement over the future of Czechia. This is also possible, but nowhere near certain; it's also possible that Germany and Russia reach some kind of a deal. Maybe one recognizing Russia's annexation of Galicia; Germany's annexation of Austria proper; and the existence of Czechia (with or without Slovakia) as an independent joint puppet with Germany's predominance.

Wouldn't the creation of an independent Czech state which is a puppet of both Germany and Russia be really hard to accomplish, though?

Also, can't WWI break out over Italo-Serbian tensions over the Adriatric, Hungaro-Romanian tensions over Transylvania, or Hungaro-Russian tensions over Slovakia and/or Subcarpathian Ruthenia?
 
If AH implodes Italy and Romania suddenly have no reason not to be best friends with Germany and if the Russians start making moves in the direction of the Hungarian Plain this could easily unsettle the Turks and if the Serbs still hold a lot of territory Bulgaria wants they could get chummy with the Germans too and with this being a clearly aggressive act on Russia's behalf you likely won't see Britain do anything to help the entente In fact you could well see the opposite.
In short if it becomes a shooty war it could easily end up being Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, the ottomans and Italy vs France, Russia and Serbia
It all depends on how things play out but my point is it wouldn't be very hard for the Germans to cobble together a decent group of allies for it to lead against the French-Russian entente
 
Why exactly did Germany really like Dualism?

In their view, dating back to Bismarck, the (relatively) loose bond between the Austrian and Hungarian halves was necessary to preserve Austria's dominantly German character and culture; it allowed for stronger ties between Germany and Austria; and gave Germany an extra pro-German voice within the Habsburg monarchy's ruling elite (this last part was far less relevant after the 1870s and 1880s).
Wouldn't the creation of an independent Czech state which is a puppet of both Germany and Russia be really hard to accomplish, though?

Maybe. One could argue that any Czech or Czechoslovak state born in these conditions would be naturally pro-Russian; so making it widely autonomous, but loosely within Germany's sphere, does not radically disturb the balance of power.
Also, can't WWI break out over Italo-Serbian tensions over the Adriatric, Hungaro-Romanian tensions over Transylvania, or Hungaro-Russian tensions over Slovakia and/or Subcarpathian Ruthenia?

I don't think any of those are likely causes for a world war. Definitely not the Italo-Serbian tensions, and probably not the other two.
 
How far back are we talking pushing the war ? I personally don't know if the British would be able to fight a war between 15-18 or even later depending on just how bad the Home Rule crisis got (remember Britain was on the edge of civil war in July 1914) no war and the implemention Home Rule could very well case issues
Edited to ad : it could also spark a war depending on how those German Rifles are viewed
 
Last edited:
Good point. However, in turn, this raises a question--would Russia want Germany to withdraw from Czechia so that an independent, pro-Russian state can be set up there?


Did Russia show any particular interest in Czechia (which, though Slav, was not Orthodox) prior to the outbreak of war in 1914?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Did Russia show any particular interest in Czechia (which, though Slav, was not Orthodox) prior to the outbreak of war in 1914?
I'm honestly unsure. However, if Russia was only interested in Orthodox Slavic areas, it would have had no desire to annex Galicia, correct?
 
Top