If Italy isn't occupied by the Allies, Italy gets to Austria first. It had been seen as part of the Italian sphere of influence up to the LoN sanctions for the Abyssinian War, and if Germany starts to lose big - France doesn't buckle and counterattack, and eventually the USSR piles in - the Moose will blow the dust off the old plans and occupy the region.If Italy isn't occupied by the Allies, the Soviets will probably get to Austria first. Czechoslovakia and Hungary seem like they would probably flip due to domestic communists as the Red Army marches in, although maybe with a shorter war, Stalin will allow the Czechs to have independence as a super-Finlandized, trapped country inside the Soviet sphere.
Greece would be safe. I wonder if, without Soviet presence in Bulgaria, Turkey might side with the Soviets while Greece sides with the Allies.