If Columbus Has Not Sailed

Columbus was basically a con artist. We all know that. But let's suppose that Queen Isabella had sent him packing, and waited on someone with a sane plan for a westward trip to China and Japan. It was certain to happen sooner or later, probably sooner. So, when might such an expedition have been mounted, and with what plans? Presumably, it would be in large part a mapping expedition, perhaps with the captain saying, in essence, "We will begin by going as far to the west as the farthest known islands, where we will restock. Then were will go in different directions as far as we can, come back, and resupply, then go to the farthest islands we find. We will repeat this as many times as we can." Assuming the expedition includes three ships, and their final jumping off point is what we now call Ponta Delgado, then the ship to the northwest will certainly discover a new land mass: Newfoundland. They land, meet the locals and and are much amazed (and amazing), then head back to meet back up with the others, which turned back when their supplies ran low. But when might this happen? And who might captain the expedition?
 
I dont have the answer to that. Based on the other dozen times this question has come up, I'd suggest:

Portuguese would stumble across the eastern bulge of S America during the early 16th Century.

West European fishermen would find the Grand Banks fishery & by the end of the 16th Century there would be a smattering of settlements from Newfoundland south.

Other explorers would be poking around the coast of N America & into the Carriabean before the end of the 16th Century
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Portuguese- wank is most likely result. with combo of Brazil (Pope probably agree to grant them all land to Portuguese, thinking Brazil is an island) and very profitable spice trade through Cape ofGood Hope , they likely acquire larger land in America.


France, Dutch and England would probably waste time attempt to find NW route, theyuse newfoundland as stopping base and started exploring, there would be decades before they realise its impossibility.

Caribbean sea, Mexico and Central America finding would be greatly delayed, and Portuguese would likely explore them first, from ship that veered off course when return from Brazil and see island.
 
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West European fishermen would find the Grand Banks fishery & by the end of the 16th Century there would be a smattering of settlements from Newfoundland south.
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Also remember Basque whalers.

What about walrus or Narwal ivory from Iceland and Greenland? Back in those days, ivory sold for its weight in European coins. Elusive "unicorn horns" sold for a higher price than obscure whales tusks.

Many of these fishermen would be reluctant to tell kings and queens about exactly where they caught their fish.

Columbus was not naive. Because he had rough maps and fishermens' tales before he set sail. He already had rough ideas about how long his voyage would last. Columbus was more of a salesman who knew which yarn his sponsors wanted to hear .... and he spun that yarn marvellously!
 
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West European fishermen would find the Grand Banks fishery & by the end of the 16th Century there would be a smattering of settlements from Newfoundland south.
.....................................................................

Also remember Basque whalers.

What about walrus or Narwal ivory from Iceland and Greenland? Back in those days, ivory sold for its weight in European coins. Elusive "unicorn horns" sold for a higher price than obscure whales tusks.

Many of these fishermen would be reluctant to tell kings and queens about exactly where they caught their fish.

Columbus was not naive. Because he had rough maps and fishermens' tales before he set sail. He already had rough ideas about how long his voyage would last. Columbus was more of a salesman who knew which yarn his sponsors wanted to hear .... and he spun that yarn marvellously!

I thought- just going from Jared Diamond- that by this time the market for narwhal ivory hd collapsed due to to competition from elephant ivory.

And wasn't this still smack in the Little Ica Age- the Greenland colonies had collapsed by this time.
 
Portugal would've hit Brazil within a few years, since its trade routes around the Cape came very close to Brazil. Cabral landed in Brazil in 1500 and immediately knew it was on the Portuguese side of the Tordesillas line, and there's speculation that even in 1492, Portugal knew Brazil was there.

I don't think Portugal would've ended up wanked as a result. Spain didn't profit very much from the Columbian Exchange. It got a lot of silver and gold out of it, but you can't eat silver; the silver ended up producing a lot of inflation, and didn't raise the real incomes of the average Iberian. Lisbon, notably, became a major city, but could not really be a long-term entrepot, because even with Portugal's profitable African and Indian trade and Spain's silver, Iberia was economically peripheral. Lisbon was a gateway to nothing in particular; the Low Countries were richer, which is why first Antwerp and then Amsterdam became the primary European entrepot. If you want to butterfly that and make Lisbon the entrepot, you need Iberia to already be bigger and richer, which is difficult.
 
yeah ... by all accounts Cabral landed in Brazil in 1500 completely independent of Columbus' discoveries which was relatively quite far to the northwest of his landing spot, and De Gama noted spotting land to the west in 1497, but didn't explore it since he knew he had to go south-east around Africa to get to where he wanted to be.
 
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