If china modernizes in the 18th and 19th century, while japan remains secluded

What if China modernizes its army and technology in the 18th and 19th century instead of shutting themselves from the world, while the Japanese stubbornly refuse outside interaction despite Commodore Perry's visit in 1853?

China, having a much bigger population, would probably be a much deadlier force than Japan if given the technology to build a modernize army.
 
Japan was not in stasis in the 1850s. Its society was changing by itself: you had the quiet transition from a rice-based to a monetary economy, the emergence of a class controlling much of the wealth but excluded from political influence, lots of unemployed samurai kicking about, ambitious peripheral lords who had been more succesful in making their domains efficient and profitable than the central government, and all sorts of intellectual ferment as modern Japanese nationalism started to crystallise.

In short, the reason that Japan was able to rapidly bring itself on a level with industrial Europe was in large part because it was already on a level with immediately pre-industrial Europe. The Japanese achievement was not in going from middle ages to 1860s, but 1790s to 1860s; isolation was what had allowed Japan to get to its 1790s in the first place, whereas China, of course, had already been the victim of commercial imperialism by the 1850s.

Whatever the response to Perry, Japan was still going to change, and soon. It's an interesting scenario to explore, but it isn't continuing isolation.

China modernising is another interesting scenario. Do bare in mind that China was trying to modernise itself continuously after the Opium Wars, but besides lacking Japan's various advantages, they had consistently shit luck.

To shamelessly rip off Ed Thomas, again, merely interfering with the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-5 a bit can be of massive help: if China suffers a less severe defeat, the Japanese and thus Russians don't eye Liaodong greedily. The rush for concessions in north China is averted, the disastrous Boxer rebellion butterflies away, and one puts imperial China on a course to maintain some of its independence and continue gradual modernisation efforts.

This is too late for China Takes Over Everything, but (especially with the help of a European patron), China could recover its status as a respected great power in time.
 
The Japanese already refused the Dutch and Perry himself once. Then Perry came back, along with the Russians (all at once). The Japanese got the point - the Europeans would keep coming back.

Korea actually resisted, but Korea was ironically more centralised and for change to happen the central government would have to lose power. In Japan, the reverse, thus far more incentive for change.
 
Japan was not in stasis in the 1850s. Its society was changing by itself: you had the quiet transition from a rice-based to a monetary economy, the emergence of a class controlling much of the wealth but excluded from political influence, lots of unemployed samurai kicking about, ambitious peripheral lords who had been more succesful in making their domains efficient and profitable than the central government, and all sorts of intellectual ferment as modern Japanese nationalism started to crystallise.

You're back!

But yes, I would agree with this. I've sometiems wondered if the best analogy to the fall of the Shogunate is 1989.

(Though let's not forget the rise in famines, either).
 
Ok, so let's say the industrialization begins in the 1700s, when the Qing Dynasty is at its peak of power, instead of taking on the stubborn stance of isolating itself from the world. Would China then be a threat to the world in the next few centuries?
 
Ok, so let's say the industrialization begins in the 1700s, when the Qing Dynasty is at its peak of power, instead of taking on the stubborn stance of isolating itself from the world. Would China then be a threat to the world in the next few centuries?
Why would it industrialize then? It's on-par (enough) with Britain and the rest at the time, and there's no need to suddenly introduce steam engines to mines and textiles when both are doing just fine.
 
This is too late for China Takes Over Everything, but (especially with the help of a European patron), China could recover its status as a respected great power in time.
Interesting, I wonder how this might affect things like Japan's invasion of Manchuria and their follow on excursions into the rest of China. Even if they don't regain their ancient great power status but simply stabilise and modernise a China that can defend herself much more effectively is going to throw up a lot of butterflies.
 
Well after the First and Second Opium War the obvious contender for a western partner to help with their modernisation is going to be the German Empire. Depending on how close or not they become that could really throw things off come the Great War if as you said it happens as in our timeline.
 
Well after the First and Second Opium War the obvious contender for a western partner to help with their modernisation is going to be the German Empire. Depending on how close or not they become that could really throw things off come the Great War if as you said it happens as in our timeline.
Why is Germany the obvious choice? In our timeline, they were just as happy to gain concessions and divvy up China as much as any other power.
 
Well Great Britain, France, Russia, and the United States have burnt their bridges thanks to the Second Opium War and other treaties but until the Jiaozhou Bay concession a couple of years later in 1897 Germany is the only Great Power that doesn't appear to have destroyed normal relations with China so I just kind of picked them by default. Whilst Germany did want concessions I guess I just saw them trying to gain them via economic and diplomatic relations rather than the military.

Could you post a link to the thread with your timeline? If it's similar to I Blame Communism's Sino-Japanese War of 1894-5 point of divergance idea I'd be interested in having a look thanks.
 
Why is Germany the obvious choice? In our timeline, they were just as happy to gain concessions and divvy up China as much as any other power.

Oh, sure - but assuming that things haven't diverged drastically in Europe, they're the only country which is a world power able to meaningfully involve itself in China but which doesn't have much pre-existing interest in the region. Britain, France, Russia, and Japan are all in their own ways China's neighbours and thus its competitors. If "China" is something that can usefully be negotiated with and invested in, the Germans are therefore an obvious candidate to do it. And there was rather a lot of German interest in the place, what with Max Weber and Falkenhausen and so on.

Kaiser Wilhelm II, it should be noted, was a hard-boiled Sinophobe. This is in the way of any prospective Sino-German alignment - and given that this is Willie we're talking about, it can easily be changed.
 
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