If Chiang Kaishek did not purge the communists in 1927

If Chiang Kaishek did not purge the communists in 1927

  • Northern Expedition would have quickened and Japanese aggression would have been deterred

    Votes: 16 30.2%
  • Risk of hostile British intervention or proxy war would have increased

    Votes: 7 13.2%
  • risk of hostile Japanese intervention or proxy war would have increased

    Votes: 29 54.7%
  • the west would have sympathized more with Japan than China in 20s and 30s

    Votes: 20 37.7%

  • Total voters
    53

raharris1973

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how would this have effected Nationalist China's foreign relations and the willingness of the western powers and Japan to recognize the Nanjing government?

Would a major British, Japanese or combined expedition to fight the KMT-CCP united front have become likely?

Would the Soong family (Shanghai legitimate business) and Shanghai Green Gang (Shanghai underworld) have been willing to work in close alliance with a Chiang who had not ditched the communists?

Would the advantages of the United Front and lack of a Wuhan-Nanjing split for speedy victory in the northern expedition have outweighed additional support that opposing warlords might have gotten from foreign powers and the Chinese wealthy classes in reaction to the continued perception of Chiang Kaishek as a "radical" red general?
 
My money's on a hostile Japanese intervention. The Japanese were more than afraid of a Communist spread in Asia. This fear was what kept the far-right strong even during the flurry of democracy the Taisho era was.
 

raharris1973

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One thing that is interesting to note is that although Japanese intervention received many votes and UK intervention received none, at the time, in 1927, the British were talking the most about intervention, and there were some joint punitive actions by US and British forces along the Yangtze. The two powers invited Japan to join them at the time, but under the Shihdehara government Japan declined to participate in joint (or individual) military action along the Yangtze.

Zeppelinair - so you're thinking that with a continued united front, there's going to be an early large-scale japanese intervention, like going in as big as they did in OTL's 1937 as early as the 1927-1930 timeframe in the ATL?

A huge Sino-Japanese war at the time is going to stimulate countries that export alot of energy and metals. Watching it unfold probably also stimulates US and British naval rearmament and abandonment of the ten-year rule. That's good for the Pennsylvania and Texas economies in the early Depression years, but probably not a big enough war or arms race to reverse the Depression.
 
So how would closer US-Uk-Jap forces effect their nations?

Could it lead to US/UK 'deputising' Japan to act in China? (with fewer massacres then otl or I think the support will go any way)

What effect would this have on the Soviets?
 
Speedier Japanese invasion is probably what would happen, after of course the KMT gets turned pink or split apart by all the communists in it. It might even happen that Chiang Kai-shek himself is the Japanese ally/puppet ITTL, a role he plays in hopes of ridding himself of the Reds he spared in the 20s. In this way the alternate Japanese war in China might more resemble the Soviet war in Afghanistan.
 

Japhy

Banned
Western-Japanese Intervention is absolutely guaranteed if Chang doesn't launch the Purge. The United States, British, French, Italians and Japanese are all getting itchy trigger fingers with their garrisons and massive fleet off the mouth of the Yangtze.

On the other hand the other big issue, is that not purging the Communists will cause the KMT to split, irreversibly. There's a massive crisis on hand between the "Nanjing" and "Wuhan" factions. Chang is in charge of one, Wang is working with the Communists in Wuhan. Besides the purge, the only way to stop the split is an outright war against Wang and his Left KMT-CCP-Independent Minded Warlord Alliance. We're talking the Central Plains War on steroids, and in the most important region in China for the KMT to control, before the country is under control.

Long term the Japanese will take the lead on KMT opposition, the rest of the West will approve it.
 
Western-Japanese Intervention is absolutely guaranteed if Chang doesn't launch the Purge. The United States, British, French, Italians and Japanese are all getting itchy trigger fingers with their garrisons and massive fleet off the mouth of the Yangtze.

On the other hand the other big issue, is that not purging the Communists will cause the KMT to split, irreversibly. There's a massive crisis on hand between the "Nanjing" and "Wuhan" factions. Chang is in charge of one, Wang is working with the Communists in Wuhan. Besides the purge, the only way to stop the split is an outright war against Wang and his Left KMT-CCP-Independent Minded Warlord Alliance. We're talking the Central Plains War on steroids, and in the most important region in China for the KMT to control, before the country is under control.

Long term the Japanese will take the lead on KMT opposition, the rest of the West will approve it.

So does that remove the Far east from alt WW2 or just change it?
 

Japhy

Banned
So does that remove the Far east from alt WW2 or just change it?

We're talking about a decade of divergence. There are enough possibilities in a KMT/Japanese/West Conflict or KMT Civil War that there's certainly no single possible outcome, far too many variables to take into account.
 
Western-Japanese Intervention is absolutely guaranteed if Chang doesn't launch the Purge. The United States, British, French, Italians and Japanese are all getting itchy trigger fingers with their garrisons and massive fleet off the mouth of the Yangtze.

I wouldn't say guaranteed, but yes, a conflict is likely. If Moscow and Nanjing drifts close enough, the Sino-Soviet conflict of 1929 might be avoided resulting in an increased tension in Manchuria between Soviet and China on the one side and Japan on the other.


Also, the British were mighty scared of Russia and saw every left wing movement in China as Bolshevik influence. An interesting paper on the topic, although it was some time since I read it is "‘We are virtually at war with Russia’: Britain and the Cold War in East Asia, 1923–40". The idea that the Cold War started during the interwar really bears some merit.
 
My money's on a hostile Japanese intervention. The Japanese were more than afraid of a Communist spread in Asia. This fear was what kept the far-right strong even during the flurry of democracy the Taisho era was.

If the Japanese were so afraid of the Communists, why did they withdraw from the Soviet Far East?
 
If the Japanese were so afraid of the Communists, why did they withdraw from the Soviet Far East?
Because it was the Japanese right/nationalist/militarist that opposed Communism most vehemently. There were more moderate and liberal elements that wielded political influence around the time. The 1910s were not a good time for the Japanese military. It wasn't IIRC until after the Kanto earthquake that their cause started picking up steam.
 

raharris1973

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what would the odds be of a soviet intervention to counter the japanese intervention under sad circumstances. especially without the history of cks doublecrossing the communists before te japan war?
 
Because it was the Japanese right/nationalist/militarist that opposed Communism most vehemently. There were more moderate and liberal elements that wielded political influence around the time. The 1910s were not a good time for the Japanese military. It wasn't IIRC until after the Kanto earthquake that their cause started picking up steam.
Really, I thought they left due to realizing that the other great powers would no longer support them in Siberia, which in and of itself was a waste of resources to hold and since the Red army was rearming rapidly the Japanese high command withdrew due to the support for the whites having become a lost cause. Was that not the reason? True they hated communists but I am certain the maority of military officials new war with the rearmed USSR without any support form other great powers was lost cause.
 
Really, I thought they left due to realizing that the other great powers would no longer support them in Siberia, which in and of itself was a waste of resources to hold and since the Red army was rearming rapidly the Japanese high command withdrew due to the support for the whites having become a lost cause. Was that not the reason? True they hated communists but I am certain the maority of military officials new war with the rearmed USSR without any support form other great powers was lost cause.

All those arguments held true for attacking and occupying China, not to mention the 1939 attempt to have another go at the USSR. It's just that c. 1920 the Japanese government was somewhat more functional and plus there was no Great Depression to push politics to the militarists.
 
what would the odds be of a soviet intervention to counter the japanese intervention under sad circumstances. especially without the history of cks doublecrossing the communists before te japan war?
CKS doublecrossing the CCP was not such a big factor in Stalin's China policy, which considered the KMT to be the legitimate head of a bourgeois national revolution. The CCP was considered a group of nobodies (which was true at that point).
 
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