If Chiang Kai-Schek's Northern Expedition of 1926 had failed.

maverick

Banned
Random thought, but what if the Kuomingtang had fallen into disarray or Chiang Kai-Schek had not risen to power or had fallen down some stairs and cracked his skull just a few days before the Northern Expedition against the Warlords?

I imagine the Kuomingtang being reduced to Guangdong province for the time being, almost like another warlord faction, but would China be eventually reunified by someone, maybe a strongman from the Beiyang Government or a Charismatic and powerful Warlord with time, even without the KMT?
 

The Vulture

Banned
I don't think it'd be inconceivable for China to eventually split into multiple separate states if Beiyang or one of the cliques doesn't step up to the plate.
 

Typo

Banned
I don't think Chiang is -that- vital at this stage, Sun and Chinese nationalism is already born after all.

On the other hand, is it possible for the "left" of the KMT to take power if he dies?
 
I'm not greatly knowledgeable about the time period, but do the Communists have any kind of strength at this point in time?
 

Typo

Banned
They were part of/cooperating with the KMT at the time, it was after the Northern Expedition that Chiang cracked down on them
 
There are several possibilities - you're posing two possibilities here.

1. Chiang dies.

1.a At the time of the expedition - Chiang had recently gained power of the KMT. So if you remove Chiang from the equation - this could result in vicious infighting which would reduce the KMT to their Kwangtung base.

1.b However you could say that Chiang is an example of the "Peter Principle" and he was basically an inept hack who was just good at getting power. So by eliminating him you leave the potential for someone more competent in charge.

1.c Chiang didn't make a difference = exactly same outcome..

2. Kuomintang falls into disarray = Depending on who came out on top - whoever came out could be more successful or a worse failure. It's also more likely that the destruction caused by in-fighting reduces the KMT to another footnote in Chinese history.

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My opinion is that the only person/group capable of unifying China is the Kuomintang/Chiang - this is because they were the only group who actually had a vision and weren't too busy infighting to achieve their goal.
 

Hendryk

Banned
If Jiang was replaced by someone more competent, this may turn out to be for the better, even if the Northern Expedition has to be delayed or started over. In OTL, while it did enable the Nationalists to take direct control of the core provinces of the greater Yangzi area, warlords remained a threat elsewhere and in 1930 the Nationalists had to fight the Central Plains War, expending precious military resources just as the Japanese were preparing to move on Manchuria.

Now, if the Nationalist expansion from Guangdong is preempted altogether, there is always the chance that one or the other warlord faction might capture enough territory to have a credible claim as the rightful government of China--one supposes either the Fengtian or Zhili cliques, or perhaps Feng Yuxiang's Guominjun. However, any warlord would have worse legitimacy issues than the Nationalists however corrupt, and be in a weak political situation when Japan begins to encroach.
 
If Jiang was replaced by someone more competent, this may turn out to be for the better, even if the Northern Expedition has to be delayed or started over. In OTL, while it did enable the Nationalists to take direct control of the core provinces of the greater Yangzi area, warlords remained a threat elsewhere and in 1930 the Nationalists had to fight the Central Plains War, expending precious military resources just as the Japanese were preparing to move on Manchuria.

Now, if the Nationalist expansion from Guangdong is preempted altogether, there is always the chance that one or the other warlord faction might capture enough territory to have a credible claim as the rightful government of China--one supposes either the Fengtian or Zhili cliques, or perhaps Feng Yuxiang's Guominjun. However, any warlord would have worse legitimacy issues than the Nationalists however corrupt, and be in a weak political situation when Japan begins to encroach.[/QUOTE]

Yeah that's the key problem with any warlord other than the KMT winning...
 
Chiang not succeeding with his northern expedition may be good for China in the short to medium term. As one of the reasons that Japan invaded was the threat from a united China, if China is not united then Japan may continue their policy of influence (ala the Manchurian Tiger) then outright annexation. Ideally if the northern expedition fails the KMT can sort out their economic and political policies so that they are effective and coherent (although ASB with the personnel at the top at the time).

A ripple from this is it forces Chiang to concentrate on concentrating on improving the quality of his forces at his disposal, something that is only possible with the concurrent improvement of the economic situation. Perhaps the cadets at the Whampoa Military Academy will have a longer period of study increasing from six months to 12 or 18 months (Which is what the Soviet advisers wanted in the OTL).
 
I see the possibility of the Communists not splitting from the KMT until after *WWII in this case. They may even just end up being another party in a stable China.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I see the possibility of the Communists not splitting from the KMT until after *WWII in this case. They may even just end up being another party in a stable China.
Or China remain torned apart by warlords, the Japanese do somewhat better if they invade, but won't be able to claim victory, and China remain split after WW2. Stalin not finding any suitable allies in China might then gamble and fund a Communist uprising against the warlords.
 
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