If Bush Died After Choking on a Pretzel

I had several questions for a timeline I am rewriting. The premise of this timeline was that Bush died on the night of January 13th, 2002 after choking on a pretzel. The most obvious outcome would be that Cheney would become president. Here's a list of things I am wondering about?
. Who would Cheney pick to be his VP
. If that person was someone in the cabinet, who would most likely replace that cabinet position.
. Would any of the Bush cabinet choices be replaced by Cheney
. Would we still get the Iraq war or some analogue, or does Cheney not have the Political Capital or Charisma to get it done.
. How does the war on terror continue?
. Does Cheney run for re-election in 2004?
 
Nice! Sounds like an interesting TL. The first timeline I ever wrote was about George H.W. Bush putting Dick Cheney on the ticket in 1992, Bush winning, and then being assassinated, and President Cheney in 1995. So I know a little bit about Dick Cheney.;)

I had several questions for a timeline I am rewriting. The premise of this timeline was that Bush died on the night of January 13th, 2002 after choking on a pretzel. The most obvious outcome would be that Cheney would become president. Here's a list of things I am wondering about?
. Who would Cheney pick to be his VP

In my timeline, Cheney selected Donald Rumsfeld (needless to say, I was going for dystopia). However, if Cheney became POTUS in 2002, I could see him considering a list of people. I can't really see him choosing anyone in the Senate, because if he does, that's one less crucial Republican vote in a split Senate. Therefore, I think he would choose someone in the Cabinet. I could see him selecting Rumsfeld, but I could even see him choosing Colin Powell. Politically, he would shore up moderates and Independents for the Republican side, and he's extremely knowledgeable and experienced in foreign policy. IOW, he's a perfect Veep for President Cheney.


. If that person was someone in the cabinet, who would most likely replace that cabinet position.

Well, I suppose that depends. If Powell becomes Veep, I think Condolezza Rice would be his SecState replacement.

. Would any of the Bush cabinet choices be replaced by Cheney

Definitey not. Cheney would want to work off Bush's image, and TBH, I think Cheney would get along better with all the Cabinet members better than Bush ever did.

. Would we still get the Iraq war or some analogue, or does Cheney not have the Political Capital or Charisma to get it done.

Well, with Bush having laid the groundwork to prepare the public and the military for an invasion of Iraq, the War in Iraq undoubtedly occurs. Off the top of my head, I'm not sure how Cheney would handle the operation.

. How does the war on terror continue?

Probably the same as OTL.

. Does Cheney run for re-election in 2004?

Most likely. If Cheney became President after Bush was re-elected, I would say he wouldn't run for "re-election" in 2008. But before 2004, yes, I do believe Prez Cheney would run for re-election. That brings us back to Colin Powell, btw - Veep Powell on the ticket with Cheney would be an uber GOP ticket for 2004 which I could see winning in a massive landslide over whoever the Dems nominate.
 
Cheney would be ineligible in 2008 because he would have served more than 2 years of Bush's term, just like Ford would have been ineligible in '80 had he won in '76.

Powell would be too liberal for the GOP base on domestic issues, specifically social ones. Bill Frist seems a better choice IMO. WoT continues as per OTL, Iraq probably happens but Rumsfeld is probably not fired. Bush wrote in DP that apart from the Libby pardon, Rumsfeld's dismissal was the only time in his presidency where he had a substantive disagreement with Cheney.
 
Cheney would be ineligible in 2008 because he would have served more than 2 years of Bush's term, just like Ford would have been ineligible in '80 had he won in '76.

Powell would be too liberal for the GOP base on domestic issues, specifically social ones. Bill Frist seems a better choice IMO. WoT continues as per OTL, Iraq probably happens but Rumsfeld is probably not fired. Bush wrote in DP that apart from the Libby pardon, Rumsfeld's dismissal was the only time in his presidency where he had a substantive disagreement with Cheney.

You would think so, but historical polls show otherwise.

I think Powell benefits greatly from his association with Reagan and/or his military background.
 
For most the the Bush administration Dick Cheney was about as popular as syphilis, Bush won reelection in 2004 very narrowly. Even with Colin Powell on the ticket Cheney would have a very hard time overcoming his lack of charisma, evil reputation and well known poor health.

Not even John Kerry could screw up this election campaign if he's running against Dick Cheney.
 
I had several questions for a timeline I am rewriting. The premise of this timeline was that Bush died on the night of January 13th, 2002 after choking on a pretzel. The most obvious outcome would be that Cheney would become president. Here's a list of things I am wondering about?
. Who would Cheney pick to be his VP
. If that person was someone in the cabinet, who would most likely replace that cabinet position.
. Would any of the Bush cabinet choices be replaced by Cheney
. Would we still get the Iraq war or some analogue, or does Cheney not have the Political Capital or Charisma to get it done.
. How does the war on terror continue?
. Does Cheney run for re-election in 2004?

I had forgotten about your previous thread from last year on this question. I'm glad that you've taken it up again and are fine tuning it. BTW, here it is for us all to refrence and discuss: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=164890
 
People would have felt sympathy following a Presdient's death. It might well have been spun as in soma way linked to the stress of office.

GW Bush mgiht be seen as a conservatrive martyr
 
I agree with DudeAlmighty that Cheney probably wouldn't change anyone from the Bush Cabinet (since he apparently got along with almost all of them, the exception I'd think would be Powell after the inevitable Iraq decision).

RB, I think DudeAlmighty has a good point when it comes to finding Cheney's VP: anyone from the Senate is out, since it could possibly tip the scales to the Dems (TN did elect a Democratic governor in 2002). I'd think if Cheney didn't want to have Powell as his veep, go with someone from the House (although from a safe seat) or a governor. I don't have any specific candidates in mind, though.

That being said, Cheney would probably lose the 2004 election. His penchant for secrecy and his image as a pissed-off, paranoid old man (as well as his heart problems) would make him vulnerable, to say nothing of his policies, particularly the WoT & the inevitable Iraq War.
 
Cheney would likely be willing to dismiss Paul O'Neil (Remember him?) at least. He was willing to take Cheney on on some issues. He'd also be far more vindictive when O'Neil's book came out.
Cheney might not even try going to the UN. He'd of course be willing to use the media, though if they would fall into lockstep behind him remains to be seen. I'm not sure exactly if he would handle Iraq differently than Bush...perhaps opening up the oil fields to US companies sooner? (The Iraq oil fields were a key item in his energy task force report. (BTW, I think he'd be even more secretive than Bush...)
I'm not sure how the Right would react to a Cheney Presidency. They would agree with his financial stands. I'm not sure if most on the right listened to Judicial Watch when they took on the Bush Administration and the Cheney Task Force (thus showing they did indeed have principles). I'm not sure how the Religious Right would handle Cheney's acceptance of his lesbian daughter...
 
Cheney can not choose Powell.His views on abortion would alienate much of the Republican base. Unless he can do something to improve his popularit,Cheney loses the 2004 election. That is if he runs. He was the first vice president since Rockefeller not to run for president.
 
I actually don't think Cheney would run in 2004. I can't give exact reasons, something just tells me he wouldn't.

Anycase if he doesn't I could possibly forsee Powell running for the Republican nomination in 2004. I know that his position on abortion might alienate the base of the party, however I could see him overcoming this if he chose a more conservative, pro-life running mate, perhaps Jeb Bush, which would be a good way to play off of George Bush's legacy.
 
I actually don't think Cheney would run in 2004. I can't give exact reasons, something just tells me he wouldn't.

Anycase if he doesn't I could possibly forsee Powell running for the Republican nomination in 2004. I know that his position on abortion might alienate the base of the party, however I could see him overcoming this if he chose a more conservative, pro-life running mate, perhaps Jeb Bush, which would be a good way to play off of George Bush's legacy.

I think you're misunderestimating how dogmatic the GOP has become post-Bush I (I don't say Reagan because Bush I's defeat started the cascade of right-wing insanity in opposition to Clinton). There's no way a pro-choice candidate could be at the top of the 2004 GOP ticket, even if it's a respected statesman like Powell (who could still have all of his credibility intact if President Cheney doesn't have him lie to the UN like Bush did OTL).

And I don't see Jeb being put on the '04 ticket. It could be seen as the Republicans trying to start a Bush presidential dynasty, not to mention a little soon after Dubya's death.
 
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