If Bush didn't invade Iraq...

If Bush didn't invade Iraq...

Arab spring would've hit Iraq and there likely would have been attempts at insurrection against Saddam. Given we already had no-fly zones in place and we would be suspecting Saddam furthering his WMDs in light of Iran pursuing them, we would at minimum engage in mission creep and initiate a sustained bombing campaign to try and initiate regime change a la Kosovo or Libya, except the outcome would not necessarily be as decisive given the sectarian differences. The situation would devolve into a Civil War except one side wouldn't have as clear an advantage. There would be calls for potential ground troops (given that there would be no Iraq War to poison the well for that). We would be in a similar situation, except it would be more chaotic.

In your own opinion, consider how he'd react to Iran getting WMD. How would he react to Syria even if the above didn't take place?
 
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I guess you answered your own question then :)

Unless you were just trying to make a statement. In that case, I more or less agree. Though I think the butterflies would have made the 'Arab Spring' a lot different.
 
USA reputation is not so fucked uped as today.
AlQueida has hundreds and thousands of less recruits around the world.
The overall secruity situation around the world is better.
Probably Afghanistan is in a better situation, too.
 
As has already been said, the Arab Spring may not have happened as OTL in such a scenario. But if we assume that it does... Gaddafi would have been less compliant with the west on his nuke program. Iran makes a lot less noise since its main counter-balance would still be in place. The US would be in a bit less debt which could delay the Tea Party's rise. Afghanistan would be in a bit better of a position with the US not diverting focus and resources to Iraq. The Kurd insurgency in Turkey may also still be going; with no real stable area to call their own they'd keep fighting. My uncle did work in northern Iraq and said it's flourished since the US invaded and Maliki decided it's easier to just let them be semi-autonomous.

There would also be less research advancement in IED-proof vehicles and prosthetic limbs. With a lot less people being maimed by roadside bombs there wouldn't be as big a need.
 
As has already been said, the Arab Spring may not have happened as OTL in such a scenario. But if we assume that it does... Gaddafi would have been less compliant with the west on his nuke program. Iran makes a lot less noise since its main counter-balance would still be in place. The US would be in a bit less debt which could delay the Tea Party's rise. Afghanistan would be in a bit better of a position with the US not diverting focus and resources to Iraq. The Kurd insurgency in Turkey may also still be going; with no real stable area to call their own they'd keep fighting. My uncle did work in northern Iraq and said it's flourished since the US invaded and Maliki decided it's easier to just let them be semi-autonomous.

There would also be less research advancement in IED-proof vehicles and prosthetic limbs. With a lot less people being maimed by roadside bomb there wouldn't be as big a need.

Semi-autonomous is putting it lightly. Iraqi Kurdistan is basically a state within a state.
 
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