If Britain/France vs Germany/Italy goes on for many years, what moves do the Soviets make?

[Jiraiyathegallant]

If Germany has its advance into France stopped at the last moment in 1940 and the result is a war of attrition that effectively destroys both sides, what moves does the Soviet Union make?

Do they take all of Finland and Romania? If so, do they advance into the Balkans and Sweden later while the war is still going on? Do they make moves against Turkey or Manchuria?

Do the Soviets attack the eventual winner? If the war ends with the Soviets occupying half of Europe and Britain/France in the other half, will Communist Parties see a significant increase in influence?

 

[Johnrankins]

If GB/France stop Germany's advance it is difficult to see how it will go on that long. Without the loot from France and later the USSR , Germany's economy is in serious trouble in 1941, particularly since the US is still going to cut off trade with Germany while selling freely to Britain and France.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

The Soviets will wait until the Germans are out of resources and fully engaged in the west before "liberating" Poland, Czechoslovakia and grabbing those bits of Eastern European countries that they have any sort of claim to.

 

[seraphim74]

The Soviets will wait until the Germans are out of resources and fully engaged in the west before "liberating" Poland, Czechoslovakia and grabbing those bits of Eastern European countries that they have any sort of claim to.

And while waiting the Soviets will pump Germany for all military technology Hitler would be willing to sell in exchange for oil, food and raw materials. I think that sooner in later Germany will start worrying about being too dependent on Stalin's good will and about technological boost they are giving to the Red Army. Perhaps a coup attempt?

 

[Bougnas]

The Soviets will wait until the Germans are out of resources and fully engaged in the west before "liberating" Poland, Czechoslovakia and grabbing those bits of Eastern European countries that they have any sort of claim to.

French policy was to help rearm said Eastern European countries (+ Turkey) and they had the production rates to do so, so not sure the Soviets could actually grab those bits.

 

[tomo pauk]

French policy was to help rearm said Eastern European countries (+ Turkey) and they had the production rates to do so, so not sure the Soviets could actually grab those bits.

French production rates were not sufficient to cater for French needs. The small countries need much more than shiny tanks, aircraft ans ships to say 'no' to a bully ten or twenty size bigger and live to tell about it.

As for the OP - Soviets can probably just sit on their newly-captured territories, fortifying the appropriate locations and modernizing their armed forces, while trying to strong-arm the neighbors into concessions.

 

[Bougnas]

French production rates were not sufficient to cater for French needs. The small countries need much more than shiny tanks, aircraft ans ships to say 'no' to a bully ten or twenty size bigger and live to tell about it.

As for the OP - Soviets can probably just sit on their newly-captured territories, fortifying the appropriate locations and modernizing their armed forces, while trying to strong-arm the neighbors into concessions.

Not enough you say?

Planned French production from May to August, which was being met. This doesn't include plans to set up production in the US and Canada in the coming months. The H39 was selected as the "Entente's" light tank for such military aid. The situation was similarly improving regarding planes. Their needs would have been fully met by the end of the year and the defensive strategy meant losses would have been limited until mid 41.

Stalin would run a major risk attacking countries that were neutral but still allied to the Entente. He might take Bessarabia but would expose himself to a Southern Continuation war if the Entente is angry enough. Remember they considered the Soviets as allies to the Germans.

 

[Derek Pullem]

....and the historical precedent (and of course the Marxist-Leninist dialectic) argues that the proletariat will rise up against their oppressors at the end of such a stalemated war.

All USSR has to do is stretch the war out and wait.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Italy only joined IOTL because France had collapsed, providing an easy venue for fulfilling irredentist aspirations on the border. In a scenario where France successfully holds the line, Mussolini will likely instead want to wait it out and see what happens, which, well, means Italy will remain neutral until the war ends due to exhaustion. This has positive implications for Britain and France as their Mediterranean shipping routes won't be disrupted and their influence over the Balkans can be preserved.

 

[tomo pauk]

Not enough you say?

Planned French production from May to August, which was being met. This doesn't include plans to set up production in the US and Canada in the coming months. The H39 was selected as the "Entente's" light tank for such military aid. The situation was similarly improving regarding planes. Their needs would have been fully met by the end of the year and the defensive strategy meant losses would have been limited until mid 41.

Stalin would run a major risk attacking countries that were neutral but still allied to the Entente. He might take Bessarabia but would expose himself to a Southern Continuation war if the Entente is angry enough. Remember they considered the Soviets as allies to the Germans.

Production in USA and Canada does not count under production in France.
Militaries need much more than tanks. Aircraft (fully outfitted, that is), artillery (from anti tank and anti-aircraft up to field artillery of any kind), spare parts, ammunition. French army was still mostly outfitted with ww1 artillery pieces, and state of complete aircraft delivery was bad. They were trying to buy aircraft abroad themselves, thousands were in order in USA.
Militaries also need to train hard, not easy if your supplier can't produce enough for it's own army. Let's note that Romania was buying aircraft from Germany and UK, not from their pre-eminent ally - France. Ditto for Yugoslavia, that was importing HS 12 engines from Avia, not from Hispano Suiza. When developing the 'Orkan' bomber, Yugoslavs were said to make a deal elsewhere for the engines needed, since G&R can't supply the engines.
Then we have the Polish opinion on French-supplied engines that was as low as it gets, they were installing G&R engines only on aircraft for export.
The only tank for export was the R35, here is what Polish were thinking on those (still bough them in 1939, situation was dire by then):
In 1938 the Polish Army bought one (according to other sources, two or three) R35 tank for testing. After a series of tests it was found that the design was disappointing: the engine was overheating, the suspension was tough, and armament insufficient.
By 1940, Germany was fielding about 8000 (8 thousand) of 20mm AA guns, several hundred of 37mm and ~3000 of 88mm Flak, compared with France having just hundreds of 20, 25 and 37 mm AA, plus 75mm AA (with minority being new pieces).

 

[Bougnas]

Production in USA and Canada does not count under production in France.
Militaries need much more than tanks. Aircraft (fully outfitted, that is), artillery (from anti tank and anti-aircraft up to field artillery of any kind), spare parts, ammunition. French army was still mostly outfitted with ww1 artillery pieces, and state of complete aircraft delivery was bad. They were trying to buy aircraft abroad themselves, thousands were in order in USA.
Militaries also need to train hard, not easy if your supplier can't produce enough for it's own army. Let's note that Romania was buying aircraft from Germany and UK, not from their pre-eminent ally - France. Ditto for Yugoslavia, that was importing HS 12 engines from Avia, not from Hispano Suiza. When developing the 'Orkan' bomber, Yugoslavs were said to make a deal elsewhere for the engines needed, since G&R can't supply the engines.
Then we have the Polish opinion on French-supplied engines that was as low as it gets, they were installing G&R engines only on aircraft for export.
The only tank for export was the R35, here is what Polish were thinking on those (still bough them in 1939, situation was dire by then):
In 1938 the Polish Army bought one (according to other sources, two or three) R35 tank for testing. After a series of tests it was found that the design was disappointing: the engine was overheating, the suspension was tough, and armament insufficient.
By 1940, Germany was fielding about 8000 (8 thousand) of 20mm AA guns, several hundred of 37mm and ~3000 of 88mm Flak, compared with France having just hundreds of 20, 25 and 37 mm AA, plus 75mm AA (with minority being new pieces).

Many of these things were prewar, by 1940 they were massively changing. The issues with R35s were becoming increasingly irrelevant since the R40 adressed both firepower and suspension (dunno about engine cooling). Even less relevant for H39s. Some of the outdated equipment would have been replaced in 1940-41 anyway which opens options to distribute them to allies where they won't be so outdated against the then common Soviet equipment, and still better than what they had.

Stalin may grab some territory in the end, but just like postwar America OTL the Anglo-French will have churned out so much equipment by 41-42 that countries like Romania or Yugoslavia would still meet their needs on top of their indigenous production facilities. Getting a proto-NATO with countries that were communist OTL would be a pretty bad outcome for the USSR, especially one that angered everyone.

 

[tomo pauk]

Many of these things were prewar, by 1940 they were massively changing. The issues with R35s were becoming increasingly irrelevant since the R40 adressed both firepower and suspension (dunno about engine cooling). Even less relevant for H39s. Some of the outdated equipment would have been replaced in 1940-41 anyway which opens options to distribute them to allies where they won't be so outdated against the then common Soviet equipment, and still better than what they had.

In this thread, French still have a small thing to fend off, namely full weight of Wehrmacht against France proper. We know who will be getting equipment that is up to the date.

Stalin may grab some territory in the end, but just like postwar America OTL the Anglo-French will have churned out so much equipment by 41-42 that countries like Romania or Yugoslavia would still meet their needs on top of their indigenous production facilities. Getting a proto-NATO with countries that were communist OTL would be a pretty bad outcome for the USSR, especially one that angered everyone.

They were trying to do that with the 'Little Entente'. Didn't worked, and it will work even less now with Czechoslovakia under the German boot, no Poland to speak about, aggresive Italy around, and Hungary and Bulgaria waiting for a mis-step so they can grab some land.
Yugoslav production capacities were a joke even when compared with Italian production capacities, they were frantically trying to buy gear in the UK, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Italy, France. Even the 7.9mm machine guns for Hurricanes were made in Belgium.

 

[Johnrankins]

In this thread, French still have a small thing to fend off, namely full weight of Wehrmacht against France proper. We know who will be getting equipment that is up to the date.



They were trying to do that with the 'Little Entente'. Didn't worked, and it will work even less now with Czechoslovakia under the German boot, no Poland to speak about, aggresive Italy around, and Hungary and Bulgaria waiting for a mis-step so they can grab some land.
Yugoslav production capacities were a joke even when compared with Italian production capacities, they were frantically trying to buy gear in the UK, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Italy, France. Even the 7.9mm machine guns for Hurricanes were made in Belgium.

We also have a pretty good idea what Germany's economy would be like without loot from France. Numbers of artillery pieces doesn't mean much if they are running out of shells because you are running out of brass bands for them.

 

[tomo pauk]

We also have a pretty good idea what Germany's economy would be like without loot from France.

Do we have that an idea?

 

[Veiovis]

If GB/France stop Germany's advance it is difficult to see how it will go on that long. Without the loot from France and later the USSR , Germany's economy is in serious trouble in 1941, particularly since the US is still going to cut off trade with Germany while selling freely to Britain and France.

The german economy in a "no looted france" scenario would be roses and sunshine in 1941 compared to theit OTL economy in late 43/early 44. Still needed 1,5 years of multi-million-men armies smashing them from both sides to end the war though.

Countries from Germany to Japan to Korea have again and again demonstrated that modern nation states, even once their economies are reduced to " eat the bugs feasting on your fallen comrade and pick up a melee shovel" die hard and long deaths. I do not know why in every ATL scenario, people assume Germany is in some way uniquely vulnerable to "collapse" to conditions far milder then many nations soldiered through.

 

[Johnrankins]

The german economy in a "no looted france" scenario would be roses and sunshine in 1941 compared to theit OTL economy in late 43/early 44. Still needed 1,5 years of multi-million-men armies smashing them from both sides to end the war though.

Countries from Germany to Japan to Korea have again and again demonstrated that modern nation states, even once their economies are reduced to " eat the bugs feasting on your fallen comrade and pick up a melee shovel" die hard and long deaths. I do not know why in every ATL scenario, people assume Germany is in some way uniquely vulnerable to "collapse" to conditions far milder then many nations soldiered through.

They may take a hit to their civilian economy but that doesn't give them brass or oil. Defending themselves is one thing, and continuing to attack another. Once they are stopped old man percentage will grind them down. It might take a year or three but they will never enter Paris if they don't take it fairly quickly. Remember OTL they were spread a long way east by 1943.

 

[Bougnas]

The german economy in a "no looted france" scenario would be roses and sunshine in 1941 compared to theit OTL economy in late 43/early 44. Still needed 1,5 years of multi-million-men armies smashing them from both sides to end the war though.

Countries from Germany to Japan to Korea have again and again demonstrated that modern nation states, even once their economies are reduced to " eat the bugs feasting on your fallen comrade and pick up a melee shovel" die hard and long deaths. I do not know why in every ATL scenario, people assume Germany is in some way uniquely vulnerable to "collapse" to conditions far milder then many nations soldiered through.

With all that said, it did help a lot that Germany had access to most of Europe and several months of rest after France, but yes, the Entente didn't feel it was ready for any offensives until the Fall of 1941 (Gamelin), mid-41 at least. This doesn't give the Entente a lot of time to breach the defenses and finish the job while having to go through the Benelux and everything west of the Rhine.

However, while at least France is a better staging ground for attacks, the bomber offensive will remain pretty limited until 1942, moreso since France only had prototype heavy bombers for now. Germany can cancel their naval plans that were made before Barbarossa to instead invest in for example tank production (this was actually suggested to Hitler after France OTL, and would be more necessary here with a direct ground threat next to Germany that is outproducing it in AFVs).

But yes, while a lasting French front would demoralize the Germans, it is likely that the BoF would not have crippled the Heer since the Entente wasn't very mobile or agressive, so it will probably take until the 1942 spring and summer campaigns minimum to win.

Great advantage is that the frontage the Germans have to defend is infinitely smaller than OTL after 1941.

 

[Veiovis]

They may take a hit to their civilian economy but that doesn't give them brass or oil.

Yes, and it will loose them the war. But it will do so in an agonizingly slow, bloody, awful way. The Reich put up still resistance for well over a year after their stocks on oil and other important ressources could be charitably described as "exhausted".

Oil in particular will be little issue. The invasion of the east was a massive net drain on the stuff. The French stocks were nice but ultimatly non-vital.

 

[Johnrankins]

Yes, and it will loose them the war. But it will do so in an agonizingly slow, bloody, awful way. The Reich put up still resistance for well over a year after their stocks on oil and other important ressources could be charitably described as "exhausted".

Oil in particular will be little issue. The invasion of the east was a massive net drain on the stuff. The French stocks were nice but ultimatly non-vital.

They had Romania OTL, they won't in TTL and that was half of the Axis oil production.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Japan seeks a diplomatic accord with China in 1934, avoiding the confrontation with the West. The Anglo-French defeat the German offensive in the West, and the Soviets take the opportunity to jump into Eastern Europe as the Reich collapses. The German Army takes control of West Germany in alliance with the Anglo French while the Soviets overrun much of Eastern Europe and set up a rump Nazi puppet in East Germany led by Goebbels. WWII thus has a brief pause before the Anglo-French-West German alliance fights a war against the USSR and its puppets. Japan takes this opportunity to jump into the Soviet Far East. Ultimately the Allies win and defeat the USSR, but come the 1960s the Japanese Empire has taken the place of the USSR Post-WWII but with the economy of China today; it matches the U.S. in steel, shipping, automobile production, etc.