If Brazil maintained its union with Portugal, how soon would slavery be abolished?

[ronaldo]

Let's say the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves survived and Brazil continued to be the capital of the Portuguese Empire.
With the passage of time the colonial empire would be more and more Brazilian than Portuguese.
So how long would slavery in Brazil survive and how would it affect the colonies of the empire?

 

[Fulano]

Probably would have been abolished even earlier. I could see Portugal-Brazil abolishing slavery when Britain did (knowing both are old partners) than Brazil, a country more or less "isolated" at the other side of the ocean.

 

[Fatt Shea]

With early abolition could we see a Brazilian version of the CSA?

 

[how]

Your 'poll' isnt much of a poll really

 

[John I of Brazil]

With early abolition could we see a Brazilian version of the CSA?

Not possible, because the national and social distribution of slave labor is very different from the USA's.

In the USA, slavery was mostly restricted to the southern plantations and these slaves were almost all property of the cotton aristocracy.

Meanwhile, in Brazil slavery was an widespread phenomenon. It was present in practically every region, though with subtle differences depending on the local economy, and it managed to transcend the class barrier to the point even slaves owned slaves (though most bought slaves to give them to their masters as a way to get manumission).

There were many different phases in the Brazilian economy, and until the end of the 19th century they all depended on slavery. During the end of the 18th century and the entire 19th century, the main product was coffee, and the coffee plantations were almost all on the southeast, in the same area where Rio de Janeiro, Brazil's capital at that time, was.

So, contrary to the USA, there wasn't a clear divide and slavery was much closer to the power center of the nation.

Probably would have been abolished even earlier. I could see Portugal-Brazil abolishing slavery when Britain did (knowing both are old partners) than Brazil, a country more or less "isolated" at the other side of the ocean.

I think that, due to the brazilian elite's influence, we might see something like what happened in OTL Brazil (a gradual abolition, beginning with the end of slave trade), but earlier and maybe faster. The thing is, does slave trade between Brazil and Angola fits the definition, for technically it's just trade between two parts of the same country? I could see such questions becoming actual problems during the process...

 

[Emperor Constantine]

I think that, due to the brazilian elite's influence, we might see something like what happened in OTL Brazil (a gradual abolition, beginning with the end of slave trade), but earlier and maybe faster. The thing is, does slave trade between Brazil and Angola fits the definition, for technically it's just trade between two parts of the same country? I could see such questions becoming actual problems during the process...

It shouldn't. After all, the US could still trade slaves internally, and the other slaver nations were still allowed to move slaves between their Caribbean territories. Now I can see the British getting pissed about it, but if they start policing the internal actions of a nation, I can easily see London's maritime policy attracting a hole lot of criticism on the continent. The last thing the British would want is a bunch of nations deciding to get together to try to "unban" the slave trade.

 

[galik]

I forsee a possible civil war since the British will definitely pressure the Portuguese government to abolish slavery, and with a monarchy that will be pro-abolitionist since it will be most likely pressured to return to the Metrolope by the Portuguese military and nobility, and far from the Landlord lobbyists that are pro-slavery.

One aspect that could prevent a civil war would be the fear of loosing the Brazilian part of the Empire, since its a large market to supply and Brazil a source of commodities, even if the British keep being the main exporter of manufactured goods (this will probably usher a protectionist legislature, since even without Brazil, happened OTL); Portugal could try to start forbiding the transatlantic trade, and later implementing freedom from womb laws and walk toward full abolitionism.

If Britain starts to threaten the Portuguese and makes pressure for an effective compilation of laws that abolish slavery at once, the São Paulo and Minas regions that are large producers of coffee will probably revolt, and start instead to influence the other regions for an independent republican Brazil.

 

[holycookie]

I forsee a possible civil war since the British will definitely pressure the Portuguese government to abolish slavery, and with a monarchy that will be pro-abolitionist since it will be most likely pressured to return to the Metrolope by the Portuguese military and nobility, and far from the Landlord lobbyists that are pro-slavery.

as @Emperor Constantine said, the Portuguese can say that it is an internal movement. Even if it is not accepted by the British, the new center of the Portuguese empire is Brazil, not Portugal. If Portugal wants to keep Brazil, the needs of this kingdom will have to be accommodated.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Isn't a prosperous Brazil good for the Portuguese union? One can argue whether slavery is good or bad for an economy, overall, but the simple fact is that the Brazilian economy was driven by slavery. Brazil has no interest in eliminating slavery. Portugal sees benefit in Brazil's triangle with Angola, and/or will need to accommodate both parts of the empire. Of course, if Brazil is capital, Portugal isn't the one calling the shots. Portugal will want to be the industrial part of the empire, which means keeping Brazil agricultural, which means slavery is a good thing.

Much, of course, depends on the nature of the union, how Brazil managed to remain capital of the empire, and how Brazil fared/grew in the 20s. Did Portugal lose a civil war/power struggle, as opposed to OTL? Did the military remain loyal to Joao/Pedro? Did Joao handle the post Iberian War period better, thus forestalling the liberal revolution? Has Brazil avoided the cataclysm of OTL 20's/30's? One has to presume Brazil, being the center of the empire, is the one calling the shots. They are going to want to keep slavery. A Brazil remaining capital is a Brazil likely more stable, with more sustained growth.

Uruguay is likely retained. Does this butterfly the Paraguayan War? This was the turning point, along with the USA civil war, for a rising call for abolition.

I think you probably see abolition more or less on the same time table. There won't be some massive early rush to abolition. The link with Angola will remain intact, which is conducive to slave trade. However, there is a world movement towards abolition. Brazil isn't immune to it, and will succumb sooner or later. I'm guessing later, which means OTL time frame.