Like Bush, Dole would be forced to raise taxes to prevent another government shutdown and reduce the deficit. Gingrich and his friends would still be outraged, even if Dole doesn't make the "no new taxes" pledge that came back to bite Bush. IMO the Democrats still win in 1992, although Clinton might not be nominated if there is no Gulf War. Remember that leading Democrats ducked out of the race due to Bush's initial popularity; if there is no war you might see Cuomo, Bradley, Jackson, Gore, Gephardt, etc throw their hats into the ring. But IMO the Gulf War is still likely to happen under Dole, and if it does the 1992 election is largely unaffected.